NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview

This Sunday and Monday, NFL fans are spoiled with a sleight of exciting matchups in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Last week we said goodbye to four teams – the Ravens, Texans, Seahawks, and Bears. This week we say hello to the four best regular season teams, who earned a first round bye – the Chiefs, Patriots, Saints, and Rams. They will meet the winners of last week as we inch closer to the Super Bowl.

AFC Game 1: Indianapolis Colts (6th) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1st)

AEDT: Sunday, 13 January, 7:35am

Expect points in the first game of the round. The Chiefs boast the most explosive offence in the league – they’ll put up 30+ points in their sleep. The Colts aren’t the offensive juggernaut that the Chiefs are, but they do have the best third down percentage in the league (48.6) – widely regarded as one of the most important offensive stats in football. Both teams will keep drives alive and move the ball on offence.

That means the likely edge in this match comes on the defensive side of the ball. The underdog Colts have the clear advantage in that regard. The Colts are 11th in yards allowed per game, and since week 7 they’ve been a top 5 defence in most categories. The Chiefs are 31st in yards allowed per game.

The Colts also have the psychological advantage. The last time these teams met in a playoff game, the Chiefs led the game 38-10, when Andrew Luck proceeded to lead his team to a 45-44 win – the second largest comeback win in playoff history. That was five years ago. Long enough that the Chiefs will recognise they are a vastly different team, but recent enough that they will remember – especially head coach Andy Reid.

All this seemingly adds up to a Colts upset win – and that may happen – but the Chiefs have a few advantages of their own. They just came off a bye and get to play at home, historically a great advantage to have in the playoffs. They’ve also been able to lick their wounds with the rest. Important players like Sammy Watkins, Eric Berry, and Spencer Ware have a chance to return from injury, and any one of those guys could swing the match.

This game will come down to the play of Patrick Mahomes II. He will be the league’s MVP in 2018, but he’s also only played one full regular season, and this will be his first playoff game. Chances are, in such an offensive game, one of the two quarterbacks will have the ball last, and an opportunity to lead a game-winning drive. We know Andrew Luck’s pedigree in that scenario, but we don’t know for sure what Mahomes is made of. Hopefully this week we get to find out.

Our tip

The Colts might not win the game, but we like them to cover the spread.

Colts (+5.5) @ $1.92

NFC Game 1: Dallas Cowboys (4th) @ Los Angeles Rams (2nd)

AEDT: Sunday, 13 January, 11:15am

Remember what we said about home field advantage? Well throw it out in this game. There’s every chance that the crowd for this game will be 50% Cowboys fans – maybe more if there’s bad weather. The LA fanbase are new to the NFL, and nowhere near as passionate as the Dallas fanbase. The Rams may have a familiarity advantage with the location and the ground, but noise won’t be a factor.

So, we have to take this matchup on face value. And what we have is the old-school vs. new-school. Dallas play a brand of football that has stood the test of time – play elite defence, run the ball, and have a quarterback with leadership intangibles that gets the team over the line when it counts. The Rams are all offence. They spread the field, run a lot of play action, but everything seems to go through star Todd Gurley. Their do-it-all running is the engine that makes this offence go, and when it goes, it goes.

The key matchup will be Gurley vs. the Cowboys run defence. Dallas are 5th in running yards allowed, so they’re capable of (at least) slowing Gurley down. But if Gurley can get going, Sean McVay will start calling play action like it’s going out of style. That’ll give Jared Goff time to throw downfield, and at that point, the Rams can score an ungodly amount of points. If Dallas can stop Gurley, Goff will be forced to throw when the defence knows it’s coming. And not everyone is exactly sold on Goff after his shaky end to the 2018 regular season. If he gets caught in a pass-only situation, turnovers will come for the Cowboys, and they will win.

Our tip

This is tough. If the Rams get the tactical advantage, they could win by 30. If the Cowboys defence creates turnovers, they will win, but it’ll probably be close and within a touchdown. The line is at 7, which is a big line – we like the Rams to cover and win big.

Rams (-7) @ $1.88

AFC Game 2: Los Angeles Chargers (5th) @ New England Patriots (2nd)

AEDT: Monday, 14 January, 4:05am

Chargers @ Patriots may be the toughest outcome to pick this week.

On the one hand, after a bye, the divisional round is historically an automatic win for the Belichick-Brady era Patriots. But, they haven’t been as good this season, and even New England fans are starting to wonder if the curtains are closing on over a decade of dominance. The Chargers are also just better, on paper.

The LA Chargers may be the most well-rounded team in the league. They also showed last week against the Ravens that their defence may be the most underrated in football. They have blue-chip playmakers everywhere, and as they match-up with the Patriots receivers, the clear advantage is with the Chargers. With Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III wreaking havoc up front, and Derwin James, Desmond King II, and Adrian Phillips covering the secondary with versatility and athleticism, the Patriots will need to achieve a balanced offence if they want any chance of moving the ball. In other words, if the Chargers’ defence know what’s coming, they’ll win.

Belichick and Brady are master game-planners, though, and this isn’t the first game-changing defence they’ve beaten in the playoffs. And although signs of decline are starting to show, New England were a touchdown away from winning the Superbowl last year, and won it the year before. You can’t measure with statistics what the Patriots have: playoff pedigree. Somehow this team knows the secret formula to winning these games, no matter how talented their personnel may be.

Our tip

If there’s a team to beat the Patriots, it’s the Chargers. It’s criminal to bet against the Patriots in the playoffs at home though. We like the Patriots to win, but the Chargers to cover the spread.

Chargers (+4) @ $1.92

NFC Game 2: Philadelphia Eagles (6th) @ New Orleans Saints (1st)

AEDT: Monday, 14 January, 7:40am

On paper, this should be easy for the Saints. Anyone who’s been watching the Nick Foles-led Eagles the last two seasons has a slight tinge in the back of their head, it goes something like, “the Saints will definitely win… but I wouldn’t bet against Foles”.

Let me start by saying, if Nick Foles wins this match, something supernatural is at play here. Foles and the Eagles have everything against them. The Saints are, by most people’s standards, the best team in the league, and the most likely to win the Super Bowl. They love playing at home, and being the first seed in the NFC, they will get to until that Super Bowl in Atlanta.

Being a dome-team, the last time the Saints had home field advantage for every game in a playoff-run, they won it all. But that was all the way back in 2010, and even though Sean Payton and Drew Brees were there for that, they haven’t been back to the Super Bowl since. The Eagles were there last year, and they won.

I can’t in good-conscience give the Patriots an edge over the Chargers because of some immeasurable ability to win playoff games, and not recognise that x-factor for the Eagles.

But to be fair, that’s all the Eagles have going for them in this match. They have an edge up front defensively, but Drew Brees gets the ball out quick to Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and company. New Orleans should handle their business at home.

Our tip

This game is similar to Cowboys @ Rams, it’s equal chances to be close or to be a blow out. Be safe and take the outright win.

Saints to win @ $1.25

*All betting odds provided by Neds.com