Never been closer: This NRL season’s average win margin lowest since 1998

The NRL has never been closer, with the average winning margin sitting as low as 9.9 three rounds in. In fact, twenty-four games have been played thus far this season and 13 have been decided by seven points or less.

There can be no arguing these early NRL weeks have been uber-competitive.

And, further to that point, the numbers don’t lie (H/T the Rugby League Guru, who mentioned as much on the Bloke podcast last Monday). Compared to last year, when teams were winning by a monster 18 points, the NRL has come far closer to parity early. Even the tries are down, slightly, with 6.58 compared to 8.02, so far.

The points may be down, but the entertainment is way up. Upsets have ruled, the Knights, Broncos, and Cowboys have all managed major scalps so far this year, and bookies have each match-up closer than in the past three years previous.

“We want games to be as competitive as possible and as fair as possible,” footy boss Graham Annesley said. “It’s pretty clear in the first three rounds the games have been much more competitive.”

One major reason is the latest tweak to the controversial “six again” rule.

Before the season began, Annesley and the NRL ran a comb over the punishment, which had replaced the majority of penalities. It was designed to speed up the game, but many believed it had taken things too far.

Annesley agreed with the many.

And so, the NRL added penalties back for infringements within each team’s own 40-metre zone. This swap was implemented to slow the game down ever so slightly and avoid professional fouls.

There’s already been a palpable effect, especially for teams that had been locked in their own halves by the smothering rules in the 2021 season, and suffered points-wise as a result.

Annesley said: “There’s a long way to go and who knows what the rest of the season will have in store but I’d like to think the tweak of the rules around the penalties inside the 40 have given teams the opportunity to get themselves into better position and mount counter-attacks.”

Last year, round 4 saw scorelines like 38-0, 40-6, and 46-6. It was one of the more lopsided NRL weeks in history, with a 26.1-point winning margin. Hopefully, we’ll see the opposite of that this time.

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