NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 29/11

Frustrating start with Allen. Hit a 3 on a second chance play with someone waiting for him at the scorers table.

Results:

• -8.26 Units Loss
• -11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Bucks 9:10am AEST

A few things up against Grayson here. Bucks back court is as healthy as they’ve been all season with Jrue and Middleton having several games under their belt which just caps the minute upside for Grayson in a tough matchup. Pacers have been awesome at limiting opponent 3 pointers this season giving up a league fewest 30.4 per game and 72% of Grayson’s FGA this season have been from behind the arc. A touch of double counting but Indiana have also been very good at limiting assists, giving up the second fewest per game at just 21.4, which again doesn’t suit Grayson who has been assisted on 78% of his made baskets this season. We are starting to get a decent sample of how this starting group operates together with 52 minutes of play time and Allen is clearly the low man with just a 12.6% usage rate in that sample at just 9.6 points per 36 despite shooting 43% from 3.

• Grayson Allen UNDER 11.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Kings 10:10am AEST

All season long we’ve seen Jenkins stagger Bane away from Ja because he doesn’t need to rely on Ja’s creation to get him looks as he’s more than capable getting his own which has been a really nice/surprising development in his game this season. Ja’s 31% usage and 7.5 minutes of touch time have to go somewhere and although Brooks is the likely candidate we haven’t seen him play extended minutes yet so I’m a bit cautious, and he’s already rocked a 31.1% usage in his time back so I don’t exactly think he’s going to be getting that too much higher. Bane has had a 3.5% usage bump without Ja this season and has put up a 15.5/4.7 per 36 line in those minutes (which covers this line) despite some awful shooting at just 32% from the field (22% from 3).

• Desmond Bane over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 1 unit out

• Grayson Allen UNDER 11.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Desmond Bane over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

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