NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 25/11

DETROIT, MICHIGAN - FEBRUARY 11: Domantas Sabonis #11 of the Indiana Pacers gets ready to shoot a free throw during the first quarter of the game against the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on February 11, 2021 in Detroit, Michigan. Indiana defeated Detroit 111-95. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Leon Halip/Leon Halip)

Tough day with Cade never really getting into the game and Barton just extremely passive from the get go with just 1 shot in the first quarter. Was rocking a 28% usage rate sans Jokic so very surprising.

Results:

• -8.26 Units Loss
• -11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Magic vs Hornets 11:10am AEST

Very very rough game for Suggs (and the entire starting group) against the Bucks, with Jrue clamping him up and battling fouls. He was visibly hot and playing badly so I’m not surprised he got his minutes well and truly cut down. It’s a far far better matchup for him today back at home against the 22nd ranked defence Hornets who have been flying up and down playing at the 3rd fastest pace. RJ playing so well behind him really makes me nervous to put a unit, but Suggs development is as important as anything for them this season so have to think he gets a longer leash here. So much upside in a very plus matchup and we are getting a nice price here.

• Jalen Suggs over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.15 units

Pacers vs Lakers 11:10am AEST

Back to back 20 point games for Sabonis but he’s done playing just 21,26 minutes rocking a 32% usage rate. The tracking stats are awesome for him over the last couple (these are just in 24 minutes vs 34 on the season). He’s at 42 front court touches (43.3 on season), 66 touches (71 on season), 10.5 paint touches (10.5 on season), 4 post ups (3.5 on season), 6.5 elbow touches (5.3 on season). No reason he can’t keep it rolling in a great matchup against the Lakers (likely minus AD), who give up the most PITP in the entire league. The entire Pacers offence should eat here against a bottom 10 defence playing at the 2nd fastest pace.

• Domantas Sabonis over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Domantas Sabonis over 24.5 Points @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Cavs vs Suns 11:10am AEST

Although the Suns defence has been good and they are “rolling” I am a bit skeptical. They haven’t versed a team higher than 6th seed on this win streak (that was the Mavs who they versed twice, both without Luka) and they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out either. Allen could be in a nice spot here against the Suns who give up the most PPP to roll men at 1.38 (Grizz 2nd 1.31). Cavs are going to run a tonnnnn of PNR with Garland/Allen. 90 minute sample of Allen + Garland with Mobley/Sexton off and Allen is at 20.2 points per 36. He got up to 20 points yesterday despite going just 7/15 from the field which is only the second time this season he’s shot under 50%. The volume should be there against the Suns playing at the 4th fastest pace in the league.

• Jarrett Allen over 14.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

Bucks vs Pistons 12:10pm AEST

Bucks are as healthy as they’ve been all season and are really starting to turn it up defensively with the 6th ranked defence in November (only got their guys back in the second half of Nov too). Pistons in a nightmare spot here travelling into Milwaukee on the second night of a back to back (15 point spread) and I’m good with taking any of their guys under’s today but I’m singling out Bey who has stayed under this line in 4 straight games. I really don’t like the role they have him in this season as he has been aggressively trying to find his own shot when he really should just be a spot up guy. This numbers right on his season average but away from home on the b2b against the Bucks this could get ugly and there is a ton of downside. Had 14 PRA when they met earlier in the season (at home, 31 minutes).

• Saddiq Bey UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Despite all that above, this line is just so low for Luka who is a talented offensive big that really doesn’t have to do much to cover this line. He can really produce and he’s just looking at so much opportunity here. Over his last 2 college seasons he averaged 1.1 PRA per minute and it’s worth noting that he only averaged 2.4 fouls per game in 31 minutes (which is probably his only concern today, was plagued yesterday against the Lakers with 5 in 17 minutes – still finished with 7/3/2). Hasn’t really had much of an opportunity this season playing just 95 minutes all up but does have a nice 14/7/2.5 per 36 line. FWIW he had a really strong summer league with 15/10/2 in just 21 minutes across a decent sample of 5 games. He could honestly cover this in a 12 minute 4th quarter garbage time stint if that’s what it came to.

• Luka Garza over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.25 units out

• Jalen Suggs over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.15 units
• Domantas Sabonis over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Domantas Sabonis over 24.5 Points @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jarrett Allen over 14.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Saddiq Bey UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Luka Garza over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

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