NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 23/10

Mavs just looked awful today and got unlucky again in the Heat blowout with Lowry finishing on 6 in just 24 mins. Close ones going against us but happy with the bets.

Results:

• -3.8 Units Loss
• -40% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Wizards 10:10am AEST

Role was as good as anyone on opening night and he absolutely cashed in with an awesome 28/4/11 line in 40 minutes. The advanced numbers ticks all the boxes as he led the league with 7.9 minutes of touch time, led the league with 22! potential assists and led the league with 28 drives. The Hornets defence is was woeful and it seems like that will be one of the better matchups for opposing guards once again, but the role is too good to pass this up at plus money against what should be another good matchup.

• Malcom Brogdon over 6.5 Assists @ 2.15 with Topsport – 0.8 units

Celtics vs Raptors 10:40am AEST

For those of you who play fantasy, I’m sure you know how good a per minute producer Time Lord is, so to see him finally let him off the leash is massive. He had only played 30+ minutes once in his career before playing a whopping 44 minutes (double OT) in their opening game. He finished with a 16/10/3/3/5 line, but was quiet in OT so the 14/9/2 line in 34 regulation minutes is just as impressive. I definitely think 34 is on the high side, but he is just so good and there was a bit of chat coming into the season that he’d have his minutes ramped up, so maybe 30ish per night is feasible. 21 minutes at his 0.88 PRA per minute rate from last season gets him over this line which should be comfortable in a plus matchup at home. It sounds like even if Horford does come back he’s going to be extremely limited as he gets his conditioning back so not too concerned there.

• Robert Williams over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit

Dodged him in their opener but man this is loooow for his role. He had a 24.7% usage rate which is right on par with the 24.8% in PS where he had a 27.6/5.7/2.5 per 36 line. He was second on the team in touches with 64 and led the team in front court touches with 42. Would’ve been filthy being on him in their opener where he went 3-17, but he still managed to fall just 3 shy of his PRA line finishing with 11/10/1. He’s too good to shoot even close to that % again so happy to back him for a bounce back here. (FVV in a similar boat and quite like him to have a bounce back game too, but it’s a bit tougher of a matchup for him likely seeing a lot of Smart and Dennis. Don’t mind having a little saver on him 30+ Pts at 14.00 though).

• OG Anunoby over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• OG Anunoby over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pelicans vs Bulls 11:10am AEST

He is going to crush the next few weeks until Zion gets back. He had a brutal matchup in the opener against Embiid and finished an abysmal 3-19 from the floor. It was still extremely encouraging to see him still manage to get to 30 minutes despite battling foul trouble and getting blown out, coming off the floor at the 4:23 mark of the 4th. Despite the awful shooting and shortened playing time, he still managed to get up to 24 PRA. The advanced stats were awesome with a 31.3% usage and 10 paint touches. As long as he stays out of foul trouble he should be clearing this in a good matchup against Vooch.

• Jonas Valanciunas over 15.5 Points @ 2.02 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jonas Valanciunas over 24.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Hornets vs Cavs 10:10am AEST

Again this is just too low for the role. He went off against the Pacers finishing with 31/9/7 in just 29 minutes. He is definitely not going to go 7-9 again here, maybe not again for the season, but he was so so bad on his drives going just 1-9 so he really could’ve finisped with an even bigger line. As mentioned in the opening write up, the role is as good as anyone in the league. He had 93 touches which is 7th in the league (Brown, Tatum, Randle all ahead after double OT so really just behind Luka, Lebron and Brogdon who all played 36+ minutes vs LaMelo 29) and 15 PR ball handling possessions (and to Luka) while rocking a 32.5% usage rate. Matchup is awesome as we just saw Ja light them up with 37/6/6.

• LaMelo Ball over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Knicks vs Magic 10:10am AEST

The Knicks are deep, and that means they’ll use guys off the bench for different game scripts. It was clear in the second half agains the Celtics they needed a little boost of offence, so This went to Obi who ended up playing 20! second half minutes. He only played 7 in the first half which is far closer to where his night-to-night number will be. They should be able to handle the Magic pretty comfortably so I am not expecting Thib to need him much.

• Obi Toppin UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Thunder vs Rockets 11:10am AEST

So into Shai today, especially at such a good number. The Wolves perimeter guys cooked the Rockets and I’m expecting this to become a premium matchup for lead guards as the season progresses. Unfortunately the tracking stats were broken in their opener, but his role looks awesome again and he was on pace to play 36 minutes in the opener before the blowout. He managed to put up 20 PA in an awful matchup where he was just 7-17 and 1-7 from 3.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Feels like there could be some big lines in this game, so spreading out a few bets.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Josh Giddey over 7.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 7.9 units out

• Malcom Brogdon over 6.5 Assists @ 2.15 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Robert Williams over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1 unit
• OG Anunoby over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• OG Anunoby over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 15.5 Points @ 2.02 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jonas Valanciunas over 24.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• LaMelo Ball over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Obi Toppin UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Josh Giddey over 7.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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