NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 22/10

May have ended up getting a little lucky with LaMelo but some tough losses swung the day against us with Dejounte going 0-4 from 3 and Bazley finishing on 24 make it a 0.8u loss.

Results:

• -1.1 Units Loss
• -16% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Mavs vs Hawks 10:40am AEST

About as positive a pre-season as you could’ve asked for from KP if you’re a Mavs fan. He looked great, seemingly moving really well on both ends and he should be ready to rock after getting up to 17 first half minutes in their last PS game. His post up numbers really weren’t great last season but it seems like Kidd wants to get a bit more variety into the offence as opposed to just high PNR with Luka handling. I’m really not sure why we are getting such a low number here, as KP averaged 30.6 PRA in just 30 minutes last season and had a fantastic 24.2/11.2/5.6 per 36 line in the PS. If the last PS game is anything to go off, it looks like he’ll be playing closer to 34-36 range. The dimes could be a sneaky addition this season if they are going to be running more through him in the post.

• Kristaps Porzingis over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 2.5 Assists @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 4.5 Assists @ 16.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Bucks vs Heat 11:10am AEST

Was very close to taking this bet last night and may have ended up taking it this morning anyway, but seeing Lopez out makes this strong. One of the key takeaways from the PS was the Bam & Lowry chemistry, which resulted in several of Lowry’s dimes and a huge 30% usage rate in 83 minutes for Bam. He has always struggled against this Bucks team who are just so good defending the paint where he does his damage but without Lopez today he has a chance to have a big game and a lot of it will come through Lowry. The Bucks defence is going to really struggle in the non Giannis minutes and this game should be played at a strong pace so there could be some big lines around. Lowry was at 9.8 dimes per 36 in the PS in 88 minutes.

• Kyle Lowry over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyle Lowry over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.7 units out

• Kristaps Porzingis over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 2.5 Assists @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 4.5 Assists @ 16.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyle Lowry over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
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