NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 20/12

Results:

• -8.8 Units Loss
• -6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Man this season… Kuminga misses 2 FTs in the last 1:30 to cash the 30+ and we are finding new ways to lose bets with Cam Thomas hitting a 3 at the start of the third, play continued and then it got taken away later at the next dead ball as he had a foot out. He also went 0-6 in the 4th.

Grizzlies vs Blazers 10:10am AEST

Since Covington has moved to the bench, it hasn’t really impacted his minutes playing 33,31,22,31. Going deeper though, that first game was when we were on him and both Nance + Nurkic were in foul trouble and the most recent game against the Hornets, it was played fast and small with Nurkic playing just 14 minutes opening up centre minutes for Nance, and PF minutes for Cov. The interesting game is when these teams met just last week. Grizzlies are a big team, so I feel pretty good about Nurkic getting his 30 (played well in 31 minutes last time) which puts a squeeze on the rest of the forward rotation. His away splits are awful averaging just 9.5 PRA shooting 26% from 3 staying under this line 9/12 times (they were all starts, now on the bench). Grizzlies defence has been the 3rd best in the league over the last 2 weeks. Also am expecting Blazers to be playing from behind a bit here, so if they do go a touch smaller for offence it’ll likely be to give Simons or McLemore wing minutes.

• Robert Covington UNDER 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit (Note the bet is just PR, am fine with PRA too).

Kings vs Spurs 10:10am AEST

Holy role. It was only a one game sample but jeez the role is too good to pass up on. He smashed in a tough matchup against the Grizzlies where the Kings only managed to put up 105, with a 21/6/10 line in 37 minutes (he sat the final 6:12! played 21 first half minutes). If this game stays close he could see 40+. He had 9.5 minutes of touch time (next highest Barnes 2.4), 118 touches (next highest Metu 66), 45 front court touches (next highest Barnes 33), 23! drives (next highest Barnes 13), and 26 potentials (next highest Thompson 6.0). I included the ‘next highest’ just to highlight that the offence was completely his in this game.

Other way to play this would be Hield u30.5 PRA which looks good too for the same reasoning. With Hali in such an alpha role, it doesn’t leave much for the others. He only had 23 front court touches, 1.8 minutes of touch time, 4 drives and 2 potentials. He finished with 15/1/1 in 36 minutes going 4-6 from 3. It’s a bit dangerous playing both, as since they got pretty convincingly beaten last game they may change things up, which would likely mean more touches for Hield as the only other guard who can handle the ball on the roster.

• Tyrese Haliburton over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.25 units

Wolves vs Mavericks 12:10pm AEST

Both Russell and Beverley get bumps without Edwards and his 4.5 minutes of touch time, but it was Beverley who got the far bigger bump last game. His touch time sky rocketed from 3.8 minutes right up to 5.7 minutes creating 16 potentials in his 31 minutes. No Okogie today may tighten things up, and it’s worth noting that he sat the final 4 minutes, meaning he could get close to 36 here. We have a large sample, and Beverley has got a huge bump throughout the season when Edwards has been off the court with his assist rate jumping from 22% to 32% going from 6.2 to 7.9 assists per 36.

• Patrick Beverley over 4.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit

Lakers vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

Has to be an over-reaction here. There’s a reason he’s been out of the league for this long. He cleaned up in the 4th quarter/garbage time in his debut playing the entire 4th scoring 10 of his points in the period. It’s probably earned him some more minutes than his 7.7 first half minutes last game, but it’s very hard to get him above 20 with Rondo clearly still ahead of him. At 20 minutes, which is being generous, he’s going to have to go at 1 PRA a minute to cover which is a tough ask for anyone, but especially when you’re sharing the court with Lebron and or Westbrook.

• Isaiah Thomas UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.5 units

Staking Plan – 5.75 units out

• Robert Covington UNDER 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Gabe Vincent over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.25 with B365 – 1 unit
• Patrick Beverley over 4.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Isaiah Thomas UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.5 units

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