NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 18/11

Results:

• -8.26 Units Loss
• -11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Wizards 11:10am AEST

Wes Unseld has done a tremendous job turning around this Wizards defence as they currently have the 4th best rating at 102.7. They are also in the bottom 10 for pace and have tightened things up even further giving up just 93.4 points per game (best in league) over their last 5. The way they are getting it done is by limiting 3 pointers giving up the leagues fewest 30.5 per game. Not good news for Terry who has had an up and down start to the season averaging 15.2/3.4/2.9 in 32 minutes. He’s one of five Hornets playing significant minutes with a usage rate above 20%, and with so many mouths to feed it means the usage spikes aren’t there (hasn’t cracked 30% once all season). Number is way above his season average and with competent bench play from the likes of Oubre and Martin (Borego been talking up Martin) he probably doesn’t have the minutes ceiling unless he’s scorching hot.

• Terry Rozier UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Cavs vs Nets 11:40am AEST

Missed opportunity not playing this against the Celtics but when I was trying to figure out how this offence would operate with so many injuries I started thinking that Garland might take a hit after losing Allen, as they have such good chemistry in the PNR, either for lobs to Allen or from his screens to free up Garland. Numbers definitely back that up with Garland at 22.7/1.2/9.7 per 36 with Allen on the floor, vs 17.6/1.5/6.0 with him off (145+ minute sample for both). The Nets roster is quite limited right now but they do have some decent defensive guard depth and with an 8.5 spread and the Nets getting destroyed yesterday, there’s a decent chance of a blowout here. Also worth noting they ran a lot more through Rubio yesterday than through Garland with Rubio at 7.7 minutes of touch time with Garland just at 5.4.

• Darius Garland UNDER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Knicks vs Magic 11:40am AEST

He was a disaster last season but the role is just so good right now covering this in 4 of his last 5 averaging 23.5/5.8 in that span. Gets what has somewhat surprisingly turned out to be one of the better matchups in the league right now, as the Knicks starters have the worst defence in the NBA. He’s at 7.1 minutes of touch time, 13.4 potentials,10.8 drives and 28% usage over the last 5. It’s Cole Anthony, so we know he’s going to want to perform at MSG, which he’s already done this season putting up a 29/16/8 line in game 3 of the season. Plus matchup for him and a number well below his season average.

• Cole Anthony over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 3 units out

• Terry Rozier UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Darius Garland UNDER 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Cole Anthony over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

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