NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 13/1

Dec 4, 2021; Portland, Oregon, USA; Boston Celtics guard Dennis Schroder (71) shoots a free throw against the Portland Trail Blazers during the first half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Results:

• 13.12 Units Profit
• 6% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Pacers @ 11:10am AEST

Smart out makes Dennis the likely candidate to start which I am actually hoping for in this situation. He’s had a very choppy season and has been an important piece for them when either Tatum or Brown has missed time, but with both of them here who he will be sharing the court with a fair bit, it’s very hard to see him having a usage spike game so the likely way this gets beat is if he’s knocking down 3s. While he’s on the court with Tatum and Brown without Smart, he’s been a bit more of a facilitator with a 33% assist rate and 7.9 dimes per 36, but the scoring hasn’t been great at 13.7 points per 36. These two teams met just the other night and it was interesting to see that J Rich closed the game over Dennis and Udoka after the game said he liked JRich’s size, so off the bat there is some minute downside. We can also bring Pritchard into the equation who missed last game and he’s definitely going to get a crack, and if he heats up which he can could also eat into his minutes. Worth noting as well that both Horford and Turner were essentially played off the floor at just 22 minutes each, but this game could end up going differently so we could see Horford play some more to put a bit more of a squeeze on the rotation. Probably going to be another grim game environment. Tougher matchup with Brogdon instead of Sykes today.

• Dennis Schroder UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

Very rough matchup for Sabonis against the front court of Horford and Williams. The Celtics defence has been awesome of late with the 2nd best half court defence over the last few weeks. They give up the 4th fewest points to centres and he only managed 11 points in an OT game the other day where he played 44 minutes.With Brogdon and Levert back in the lineup it massively takes away the usage upside and they might not need to run him out there so many minutes here either.

• Domantas Sabonis UNDER 19.5 Points @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units

Hornets vs 76ers @ 11:10am AEST

No Shake does open up a bit of minutes upside for Maxey, but with Kork showing he’s a capable backup and Doc really showing some faith in Powell last game I think somewhere around 32 minutes is probably about where he ends up as his first game out of protocols. “Feed the pig” is an all timer from Doc after they played those back to back games and we can almost certainly expect more of the same here. Joel went off and had a 36% usage rate across those games which doesn’t leave much for everyone else. He should go off again, and it’s a bit better spot for Seth than Maxey today. Would say the Maxey would need to get it done from behind the arc to cover this one. Seth/Embiid PNR has looked really good recently so am expect a lot of that today too. Maxey only had 6 points in the one game he did play in that back to back set (only 25 mins and 5 shots). Still just at 12.2 points per 36 when sharing the court with Embiid, Tobias and Seth.

• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.95 units out

• Dennis Schroder UNDER 14.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Domantas Sabonis UNDER 19.5 Points @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Tyrese Maxey UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Darius Garland 10+ Assists / Cavs win @ 8.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• James Harden UNDER 24.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.25 units
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