NBA Player Performance Service: Our Expert Selections – 1/12

Ugh. Nuggets up by 20ish the entire fourth but leave Monte in just long enough to have 1 shot at busting us, and of course he makes it. Shai misses his first 4 FTs and misses a shot in the paint to cash before getting pulled. Keldon got the minutes as expected just couldn’t get it done despite the blowout win.

Results:

• -9.20 Units Loss
• -10% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Suns 2:10pm AEST

Should be a very fun game this one with the two hottest teams in the league matching up. The Warriors defence is the best in the league by a pretty wild margin at a 99.4 rating with the next best at 103.6. They are just not giving up anything in the paint at all with a league low 39.6 points in the paint allowed. The Warriors switching scheme makes it very tough on roll men limiting them to just 0.95 points per possession (4th fewest in league). We could see a CP usage spike in this one with him likely hunting out Looney (not necessarily a great idea as Looney can hang with smaller guards) or Bjelica (might be tough for the Warriors to play him). We just saw that happen against the Nets and their switching defence and it really impacted Ayton who had just 8 FGA finishing on 10 points. The Warriors defence is far far better and they have so much length across the board making it a dangerous pass for guards to the roll man. It’ll be a fast pace game with both teams in the top 4 of pace, but if Suns are going to rack up points I expect it’ll have to come from their perimeter guys heating up.

• DeAndre Ayton UNDER 16.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Kings vs Lakers 2:10pm AEST

No Barnes OR Bagley (or even Harkless) here so the Kings are all of a sudden very thin at the 4. They are likely going to get funky with some 3/4 guard lineups but if the Lakers stay big then the Kings are really going to need Metu’s size. He’s a  very good rebounder and has covered this line in 7 of the 9 games he’s played 19+ minutes. I’ve got him projected conservatively at 22 minutes, but he really could push up close to 30 with the lack of PF options for the Kings. It’s only 74 minute sample, but when Metu isn’t playing next to Bagley or Barnes he’s at a staggering 13.5 boards per 36 with a team high 17.6% rebound percentage. Lakers give up the 3rd most rebounds in the league.

• Chimezie Metu over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.1 unit
• Chimezie Metu over 9.5 Rebounds @ 8.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Would’ve been keen to take a Nurk under here if they weren’t missing so many other rotation guys on top of Dame. Nurk/Dame PNR is so deadly and Nurk scores so many of his points off the attention Dame gets whereas every time he sets a screen for CJ or Ant today those two will likely be looking to get into the space created and shoot as opposed to pass like Dame does. Nurk also a big risk on the b2b but this Pistons interior defence is so soft so can’t bet it but I’d avoid him for those playing multi’s. Also from this game it’s worth noting Cade’s role with Killian back is significantly worse with just 4.8 minutes of touch time and 6 potentials in the last game. He was up around 7 minutes while Killian was out and consistently in double digit potentials. Another one to avoid, but hard to bet with the Blazers giving up the 2nd most assists per game.

Staking Plan – 2.2 unit out

• DeAndre Ayton UNDER 16.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Chimezie Metu over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Chimezie Metu over 9.5 Rebounds @ 8.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

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