NBA Lines & Totals Service: Our Expert Selections 22/10

Small but nice betting slate today

Results:

• 1.8 Units Profit
• 90% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Clippers 1:10pm AEST

I’m just so in on the Warriors. Steph has really struggled the last few seasons against the Lebron/AD Lakers, especially at Staples, but it was pretty wild to see them win a game on the road with him going 5-21. They finally have a second unit that has a shot at holding their own while Steph/Dray are off the court largely due to the emergence of Poole. They were down 2 going into the 4th when Steph checked out and managed to be up 4 when he came back in with 6:30 left. Steph led the league last season in offensive on/off with a ridiculous +15.2 and a net rating of 3.4 (which is a 50+ win pace). Expecting a big bounce back game from Steph at home where the Warriors were awesome last season at 25-11 (14-22 on the road). The Clippers were very good when Kawhi went down in the playoffs last season but they were playing an extremely unsustainable style with huge minutes from their main guys and Morris/Batum at the 4/5. It’s going to be tough for them to replicate that over a full regular season and I really don’t like the additions of Bledsoe (who we haven’t seen anything positive from in years) and Winslow who’s likely going to be asked to play 20+ minutes after barely being able to crack the Grizzlies rotation last season. I still like the core of this team and their best 5 man line-up of Reggie, PG, Mann, Morris, Batum is very strong but I just don’t think we are going to see much of that early in the season.

• Golden State Warriors -3.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Bucks vs Heat 11:10am AEST

Bucks are a notoriously fast team for obvious reasons as they have the most devastating transition player we have perhaps ever seen, but it is the Heat who I think we are going to see pushing this season. They were in the bottom 4 for pace last season at 100.25 but with Lowry in Miami, Spo has one of the best pace pushing PGs at his disposal with the early signs for the group being extremely positive in PS playing at a 108.00 first half pace. The bucks have always tried to keep either Giannis or Lopez on the floor for defensive purposes, but with no Lopez and no back-up big here the non Giannis minutes are going to be very rough defensively with next to no rim protection. I’m not sure that we are going to see Bud over-extend Giannis here so early in the season coming off their championship, so there could be a fair chunk of these super small Bucks line-ups. Without Jrue the Heat guards shouldn’t have an issue getting downhill, I think they put up a big score here at home and build off the back of their strong PS.

• Bucks/Heat Total Points over 223.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Miami Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 0.5 units

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Staking Plan – 2.5 unit out

• Golden State Warriors -3.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bucks/Heat Total Points over 223.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Miami Heat -2.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 0.5 units
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