Melbourne Cup: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

The Melbourne Cup’s here! A stacked field, two miles, and pure theatre at Flemington. We’ve broken down every runner so you can spot the winner — and don’t miss our Best Bet and Value Play at the bottom.

Our experts have crunched the data, mapped every scenario, and pinpointed which runners are ready to peak on the big stage. Don’t miss our best bet, and value selections at the bottom — they could be the key to unlocking a serious collect this weekend.

1. Al Riffa — 59kg — Barrier 19

Why he can win

A dual Group 1-winning Irish stayer with a huge motor. He’ll love a genuine tempo and has the class to feature late.

Why he can’t win

Drawn awkwardly and first try at 3200m with top weight to carry.

Summary: Classy Euro who’ll be hitting the line hard — predicted 7th | Betr: $9 win / $3 place. – Bet Here

2. Buckaroo — 57kg — Barrier 12

Why he can win

He’s flying this prep, mixing it with elite middle-distance horses, and profiles as one who’ll stay.

Why he can’t win

Yet to prove he runs a strong two miles, and he can flatten late under weight.

Summary: Talented but untested at the trip — predicted 8th | Betr: $9 win / $3 place. – Bet Here

3. Arapaho — 56.5kg — Barrier 15

Why he can win

Battle-hardened stayer with a Sydney Cup win and thrives under pressure.

Why he can’t win

Form has tailed off, and this Cup looks deeper than his comfort zone.

Summary: Honest grinder but looks outclassed — predicted 21st | Betr: $51 win / $9 place. – Bet Here

4. Vauban — 56.5kg — Barrier 2

Why he can win

Maps perfectly from the soft draw and has top-tier European staying form.

Why he can’t win

Not racing near his best this spring and needs to rediscover that spark.

Summary: Capable but risky on recent form — predicted 13th | Betr: $26 win / $6.50 place. – Bet Here

5. Chevalier Rose — 55.5kg — Barrier 5

Why he can win

Japanese stamina lines and D. Lane in the saddle — both tick big boxes.

Why he can’t win

Form figures from home are modest, and he’s yet to show he’s up to this grade.

Summary: Hard to recommend on recent form — predicted 24th | Betr: $34 win / $7.50 place. – Bet Here

6. Presage Nocturne — 55.5kg — Barrier 9

Why he can win

Big flashing light in the Caulfield Cup and has genuine staying class.

Why he can’t win

Two miles still an unknown, and may be pocketed from a midfield map.

Summary: Has upside and can run into the money — predicted 14th | Betr: $8.50 win / $2.90 place. – Bet Here

7. Middle Earth — 54.5kg — Barrier 13

Why he can win

Progressive type who’ll relish a true staying test and carries little weight.

Why he can’t win

Needs to lift a few lengths off his Caulfield Cup run.

Summary: Capable improver but place best — predicted 16th | Betr: $34 win / $7.50 place. – Bet Here

8. Meydaan — 54kg — Barrier 22

Why he can win

Powerful closer with a good turn of foot and handles all conditions.

Why he can’t win

Gate 22 could see him parked too far back early.

Summary: Could flash late at odds — predicted 12th | Betr: $17 win / $5 place. – Bet Here

9. Absurde — 53.5kg — Barrier 4

Why he can win

Maps ideally just behind the leaders and runs a true two miles.

Why he can’t win

Lacks the knockout punch for a Cup finish.

Summary: Stayer’s stayer who’ll grind on — predicted 19th | Betr: $23 win / $6 place. – Bet Here

10. Flatten The Curve — 53.5kg — Barrier 17

Why he can win

Strong international form over marathon trips and won’t mind a test of endurance.

Why he can’t win

Faces a big class jump and could get lost from the draw.

Summary: Stays all day but may lack speed — predicted 17th | Betr: $26 win / $6.50 place. – Bet Here

11. Land Legend — 53.5kg — Barrier 16

Why he can win

Joao Moreira on board and he can roll forward into a handy spot.

Why he can’t win

Outclassed in his recent runs and needs a big spike.

Summary: Faces a tough ask — predicted 22nd | Betr: $91 win / $17 place. – Bet Here

12. Smokin’ Romans — 53.5kg — Barrier 11

Why he can win

Honest horse who’ll roll on pace and give a sight.

Why he can’t win

Doesn’t quite see out 3200m against elite stayers.

Summary: Tough but limited — predicted 23rd | Betr: $81 win / $18 place. – Bet Here

13. Changingoftheguard — 53kg — Barrier 24

Why he can win

Strong European form at his best and gets blinkers on.

Why he can’t win

Awful gate and recent runs below par.

Summary: Can improve but map kills him — predicted 15th | Betr: $91 win / $18 place. – Bet Here

14. Half Yours — 53kg — Barrier 8

Why he can win

Caulfield Cup winner, flying this prep, and drawn for a gun run.

Why he can’t win

Backing up from peak runs always a risk.

Summary: Genuine threat and top seed — predicted 2nd | Betr: $6.50 win / $2.40 place. – Bet Here

15. More Felons — 53kg — Barrier 23

Why he can win

Tough stayer on his day and suited by a long trip.

Why he can’t win

Flat prep and horror draw.

Summary: Can’t see him figuring — predicted 18th | Betr: $51 win / $10 place. – Bet Here

16. Onesmoothoperator — 53kg — Barrier 6

Why he can win

Flying after a brilliant Moonee Valley Gold Cup win and maps to get every favour.

Why he can’t win

Untested beyond 2600m and needs to hold that peak.

Summary: Right in the mix for top six — predicted 6th | Betr: $19 win / $5.50 place. – Bet Here

17. Furthur — 52kg — Barrier 7

Why he can win

Progressive Euro who stays all day and gets in with no weight.

Why he can’t win

New to Aussie conditions and inexperienced at this level.

Summary: Might find a few too strong — predicted 20th | Betr: $23 win / $6 place. – Bet Here

18. Parchment Party — 52kg — Barrier 3

Why he can win

U.S. form says he stays all day and maps for a soft run.

Why he can’t win

Unknown against this quality and first-up off a break.

Summary: Watch for late betting — predicted 10th | Betr: $51 win / $10 place. – Bet Here

19. Athabascan — 51.5kg — Barrier 1

Why he can win

Gets the perfect smother from gate one and has a nice turn of foot.

Why he can’t win

Flemington hasn’t been kind to him before.

Summary: Honest top-10 type — predicted 9th | Betr: $81 win / $18 place. – Bet Here

20. Goodie Two Shoes — 51.5kg — Barrier 20

Why she can win

Consistent mare with strong European staying form and gets in light.

Why she can’t win

Wide draw and first start for a new stable.

Summary: Capable of running well — predicted 11th | Betr: $41 win / $9 place. – Bet Here

21. River Of Stars — 51.5kg — Barrier 14

Why she can win

Superb Caulfield Cup second and flying at the right time.

Why she can’t win

Deep into her prep and may need luck in the run.

Summary: Genuine top-four contender — predicted 4th | Betr: $16 win / $4.80 place. – Bet Here

22. Royal Supremacy — 51kg — Barrier 21

Why he can win

Strong Metropolitan win and perfectly weighted for this.

Why he can’t win

Horrible draw could ruin his chance.

Summary: Dangerous if he gets cover — predicted 5th | Betr: $34 win / $8 place. – Bet Here

23. Torranzino — 51kg — Barrier 18

Why he can win

Flying off his Geelong Cup win and still improving.

Why he can’t win

Wide gate could test his luck early.

Summary: The big value runner — predicted 3rd | Betr: $34 win / $8 place. – Bet Here

24. Valiant King — 51kg — Barrier 10

Why he can win

Bart Cummings winner who flew home in the Caulfield Cup; perfectly set up to peak.

Why he can’t win

Still needs to tick the 3200m box, but everything points to yes.

Summary: The horse to beat — predicted 1st | Betr: $8 win / $2.75 place. – Bet Here

Best Bet

Valiant King – 51kg – Barrier 10

He’s the complete Melbourne Cup package — a Bart Cummings winner who ran an elite third in the Caulfield Cup, screaming for the two miles. He maps to stalk the speed, gets in at a featherweight, and has the turn of foot to explode when it counts. Every bit of his prep has been aimed at this race, and he looks ready to cash in. He’s the one they’ll have to beat. – Bet Here

Value Bet

Torranzino – 51kg – Barrier 18

This lightly weighted improver is flying under the radar after a dominant Geelong Cup win. He’s peaking perfectly, has the right profile for Flemington, and brings a sharp sprint for a stayer. The draw isn’t ideal, but if he finds cover midfield, he’ll be charging late at double-figure odds. He’s the smoky with genuine knockout potential. – Bet Here