Conor McGregor makes his long-awaited UFC return against Max Holloway in one of the biggest fights of the year, but for punters, this is a fascinating clash between an unknown and one of the sport’s most reliable volume strikers. While McGregor still possesses genuine knockout power, the biggest question is whether he can reproduce it after a five-year absence from the Octagon. You can find our full betting insights and tips available below.
This rematch comes 13 years after McGregor defeated Holloway by unanimous decision, but the circumstances couldn’t be more different. Holloway has remained active at the elite level, while McGregor hasn’t fought since suffering a broken leg against Dustin Poirier in 2021. Activity, cardio and durability all favour Holloway, while McGregor’s path to victory almost certainly revolves around landing something significant early.
What the Betting Markets Say
Most bookmakers have installed Holloway as the favourite, largely due to his recent activity and proven ability to maintain an incredible pace over five rounds. McGregor’s odds reflect both the uncertainty surrounding his return and the respect for his finishing ability.
The market is effectively asking one question:
Can McGregor land before Holloway takes over?
The Key Betting Angles
Early Rounds Favour McGregor
McGregor has built his career on fast starts and explosive finishes.
Punters backing “The Notorious” should expect his best chance to come in the opening two rounds while he’s fresh and dangerous. His left hand remains one of the biggest equalisers in MMA, particularly if Holloway gives him opportunities to counter.
The Longer the Fight Goes…
This is where Holloway becomes increasingly attractive.
Few fighters in UFC history maintain the pace that Holloway can across five rounds. His output tends to increase as fights progress, while opponents often slow dramatically.
If McGregor’s cardio isn’t close to peak level after such a lengthy layoff, Holloway’s pressure could become overwhelming in the championship rounds.
Volume vs Power
This fight presents one of MMA’s classic betting matchups.
- McGregor: Lower volume but elite knockout power.
- Holloway: Constant pressure, combinations and accumulation.
For judges, Holloway’s style often wins rounds. For knockout bettors, McGregor always carries danger.
Best Markets to Watch
Fight to Start Round 3
- A popular option if you believe both fighters show each other respect early while feeling out the range.
McGregor by KO/TKO
- His clearest path to victory.
- Best value if you’re backing the Irishman.
Holloway by Decision
- Appeals if you expect McGregor to remain competitive early before Holloway banks rounds with superior activity.
Holloway by Late TKO
- One of the more interesting value plays.
- If McGregor fades, Holloway’s relentless pace could force a stoppage in Rounds 4 or 5.
X-Factors Punters Shouldn’t Ignore
- McGregor hasn’t competed in five years.
- Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor’s last appearance.
- The bout is contested at welterweight (170 lbs), meaning Holloway won’t need to endure a difficult weight cut while McGregor has historically looked comfortable at the higher weight.
TSB Betting Verdict
From a pure betting perspective, Holloway is the safer side. His activity, cardio and consistency remove many of the unknowns that surround McGregor heading into his comeback.
However, writing McGregor off completely is dangerous. He remains one of the most explosive finishers the UFC has ever seen, and if he finds Holloway’s chin early, the fight could end in spectacular fashion.
Best Betting Lean: Holloway to win, with the strongest value lying in Holloway by Decision or Holloway in the later rounds, while McGregor backers should focus on KO/TKO markets rather than the moneyline.
