The official teams are in for Storm vs Panthers, with Harry Grant and Jack Howarth returning for Melbourne, while Penrith regain Dylan Edwards and Casey McLean in their backline. Those changes create several interesting anytime try scorer, try assist and player-prop opportunities for punters.
Biggest Winners – Storm
Harry Grant
Grant has passed his final fitness test and returns at hooker, with Tyran Wishart moving back to the bench. His return should immediately increase Melbourne’s threat around the ruck.
Our Tip: Harry Grant – Anytime Try Scorer
Jack Howarth
Howarth returns in the centres for his 50th Storm appearance. His size and direct running give Cameron Munster another dangerous target on Melbourne’s edge.
Our Tip: Jack Howarth – Anytime Try Scorer
Cameron Munster
Grant’s return is a major positive for Munster. Better service and another threat around the ruck should give the five-eighth more opportunities to attack Penrith’s defensive line.
Our Tip: Cameron Munster – 1+ Try Assist
Biggest Losers – Storm
Tyran Wishart
Grant’s return pushes Wishart back to the interchange, making his expected minutes and involvement less attractive for player props.
Betting impact: Avoid Wishart’s involvement markets unless Sportsbet or TAB post a particularly low line.
Storm Right-Edge Defence
Penrith have Brian To’o on the left wing, and his record against Melbourne demands attention — he has scored nine tries in his past nine games against the Storm.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Melbourne’s Halves
Trent Toelau remains at halfback alongside Munster, meaning Melbourne still don’t have their preferred first-choice halves combination.
Our Tip: Cameron Munster – 1+ Try Assist
Biggest Winners – Panthers
Dylan Edwards
Edwards returns at fullback after being named among the reserves last week. His return gives Nathan Cleary another elite support runner and restores a crucial part of Penrith’s attacking structure.
Our Tip: Dylan Edwards – Anytime Try Scorer
Brian To’o
To’o’s matchup record is the standout betting statistic in this game: nine tries in his last nine appearances against Melbourne.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Nathan Cleary
Getting Edwards back at fullback and Casey McLean back into the centres gives Cleary more established attacking options around him.
Our Tip: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Biggest Losers – Panthers
Jaxen Edgar
Edwards’ return sees Edgar drop out of the starting side after filling in at fullback.
Betting impact: Edwards becomes the player to target in Penrith fullback markets.
Paul Alamoti
Alamoti is also out, with Casey McLean returning in the centres alongside Izack Tago.
Our Tip: Casey McLean – Anytime Try Scorer
Panthers Middle
Penrith remain without Isaah Yeo, with Lindsay Smith again named at lock. Melbourne counter with Stefano Utoikamanu and Josh King starting up front and Grant back at hooker.
Our Tip: Harry Grant – Anytime Try Scorer
Early Betting Verdict
There are two selection changes I particularly want to target: Harry Grant returning for Melbourne and Dylan Edwards returning for Penrith. The Panthers’ restored backline also makes their try-scoring markets considerably more interesting.
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the obvious starting point. To’o has nine tries from his past nine matches against Melbourne, and he remains on Penrith’s left wing.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Dylan Edwards – Anytime Try Scorer
Edwards’ return restores one of Penrith’s premier support players. He should be around the football whenever Cleary or the Panthers’ forwards break Melbourne’s line.
Our Tip: Dylan Edwards – Anytime Try Scorer
Jack Howarth – Anytime Try Scorer
Howarth returns straight into Melbourne’s centres and gives Munster a big, powerful runner to target close to Penrith’s line.
Our Tip: Jack Howarth – Anytime Try Scorer
Nathan Cleary – Try Assists
Edwards and McLean returning gives Cleary a stronger collection of attacking options than he had in the loss to the Roosters.
Our Tip: Nathan Cleary – 1+ Try Assist
Harry Grant – Anytime Try Scorer
Grant’s return to starting hooker is one of the biggest changes on either team sheet. His ability to attack tired defenders from dummy-half makes his try market interesting.
Our Tip: Harry Grant – Anytime Try Scorer
Cameron Munster – Try Assists
With Grant back providing service from dummy-half, Munster should have more freedom to attack rather than having to manufacture everything himself.
Our Tip: Cameron Munster – 1+ Try Assist
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
It’s difficult to look past the matchup record. Nine tries in his last nine games against Melbourne is a strong enough trend to make To’o my preferred player market from the team sheets.
The 2+ Tries market is also worth checking with Sportsbet and TAB if the price is attractive.
Our Tip: Brian To’o – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet
Jack Howarth – Anytime Try Scorer
Howarth’s return is slightly overshadowed by Grant’s comeback, which could help his price. He returns at centre for his 50th Storm game and gives Melbourne a powerful attacking option on the edge.
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