If the Blues want to make it three in a row, they have to crush Queensland’s Origin resolve in Adelaide

If New South Wales wants to make it three State of Origin titles in a row — a feat they haven’t achieved since 2003-2005 — then they have to stamp their authority in Adelaide.

The State of Origin scales have well and truly tipped in recent years.

Queensland enjoyed a Maroon dynasty from 2006 to 2017, winning 11 of the 12 series on offer. The retirement of the “Big Four” — Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater, and Greg Inglis — swung it all around though; the Blues have won the past two Origin campaigns in a row, both in 2–1 series thrillers.

This year, the gulf between the two Origin arch-rivals has never been wider.

Queensland rugby league has been flailing after their golden era. The Maroons’ team list, announced on October 26, is stacked full of fresh faces. Josh Kerr (Dragons), Edrick Lee (Knights), Brenko Lee (Storm). The list goes on — these aren’t exactly the biggest stars in the game.

Rattle off the newcomers on the other side of the border: Zac Lomax, Luke Keary, Payne Haas. These are some of the brightest young stars in the NRL, and they’re chomping at the bit to pull on a Blues jumper.

Even the bookies have got a lopsided skew of the game.

NSW are coming in as red-hot 1.35 faves, while Queensland are locked as heavy outsiders; Sportsbet has the northerners at 3.25. No one seems to be giving the Maroons a snowball’s chance in hell.

This, though, is where the danger comes in. It’s State of Origin; the “rivalry without rival.”

No one has an easy time winning a series in Origin. Even during Queensland’s most dominant period, winning eight in a row, they only clocked up a 3-0 series record once. Look at that 2010 series too, and only Game 2 was decided by more than five points.

In fact, the only time a team has ever recorded back-to-back 3-0 triumphs was all the way back in 1988-98. Queensland walked away with six games in a row across two years. It’s never happened again.

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If the Blues leave the door ajar and give Queensland a sniff, we’ll have a series of our hands despite NSW’s dominant team, on paper. The Maroons still have plenty of gamebreakers; all they need is the word ‘go.’

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So, New South Wales must be careful. The first challenge comes in Adelaide, on Wednesday evening, when the end-of-season Origin series kicks off in earnest. There’s only one mission for the favoured Blues: demolish their rivals, hard.

Why?

Well, the Blues are all likes to take the Sydney match on Nov. 11. There’ll be a home crowd and it’s on home soil in ANZ Stadium. Then there’s the danger match for NSW — the potential location of the decider is at Suncorp Stadium. Queensland have always put up a fight in the north.

That means if the Maroons can spring an ambush on the Blues in Adelaide, it’s all to play for.

Then there’s the chance QLD keep it close at the neutral venue. If New South Wales look weak, or the battle looks closer than it should, that’s a win for the underdog Queenslanders. Prove the Blues’ star-studded outfit can bleed, and maybe there’s an upset on the cards in Sydney.

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That’s not what Freddy Fittler’s men will want at all. The squad lists have a monster gulf between them, and a lopsided stack of stars; now the Blues have to prove it on Wednesday.

2020’s first State of Origin clash kicks off at 7.40pm on Wednesday, November 4.

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