How surprising was it to see Holger Rune win the 2025 Barcelona Open?

We saw what some might think was a significant upset on Sunday as Holger Rune of Denmark, the sixth seed, defeated the number one seed, Carlos Alcaraz of Spain, 7-6, 6-2, in the final of the Barcelona Open. The fact that Alcaraz was unable to beat Rune was a little surprising based on the amount of success the Spaniard had in winning the Monte Carlo Masters earlier this month.

However, you could make the argument that Alcaraz has at times not played his best tennis during the clay court season in 2025. Even though he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the Monte Carlo final, that went three sets. Alcaraz also lost a set there to Francisco Cerundolo of Argentina and Arthur Fils of France. Then in Barcelona, Alcaraz was taken to a second set tie break against Ethan Quinn of the United States before winning 8-6. So, based on some subpar results on dirt from Alcaraz, Rune’s win was not a total surprise.

In the Barcelona final, Rune broke Alcaraz three times in five opportunities. Rune has now won three clay court tennis tournaments in his career, as he also beat Botic van de Zandschulp of the Netherlands in the final of the Bavarian Open in Munich two straight years in 2022 and 2023.

You might find it surprising that Alcaraz and Rune are 2-2 head-to-head all-time. Rune’s other win coming in the quarterfinals of the 2022 Paris Indoor. Not many people saw the Alcaraz loss coming as he was playing in a final in his home country of Spain, and that he was a -500 betting favourite.

Now tennis fans will wonder what the adjustments Alcaraz will make leading up to the Madrid Masters. After receiving a first round bye, he will play his second round match at the end of the week. What changes will Alcaraz decide upon in order to be more effective in Madrid than Barcelona? In my opinion, he will need to do a better job with his second serve as it was 53% or less in three of his Barcelona matches.