Horses to Follow : Belmont Saturday 11th July

We’ve been dished out some really strong Saturday cards for this time of year recently at Belmont and they seem to just keep on giving with another peach here. Looks an overcast, cold day without rain with the rail out 6m, looking at a good 4.

Race 2 – Puckapunyal

Really promising horse for the flying Lindsey Smith yard who he has a very big opinion of. Would be 2/2 this prep if he hadn’t run into who I think could be a freak of a horse in the longer term in Bright Diamond, such is the opinion I have of her. This form behind Bright Diamond just reads so well on paper (far and above the best in this race) and she maps to get a beautiful stalking run from gate 2 and hop on the back of Captain Kink who will burn across to take it up. 1400m back to 1200m no dramas for me, gets a plum ride and the stable has had 18 winners in the last 4 weeks. Happy to dive in at anything over $2.50 in my markets which I feel we will see again, after she has been backed into $2.35 from $2.80 opening today (now $2.15 time of writing).

3 units WIN Puckapunyal @ $2.50+

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Race 3 – Aberdeen Queen

As previously mentioned, yard is flying, and this is, again, one of the more promising gallopers Lindsey Smith has in his possession at the moment with the 4 wins from the 6 starts. Was terrific over this track/trip last time out when settling midfield, rounding them up and putting a space on them in the straight to the tune of 3.6L. Finds another relatively weak field again and possesses figures which are far superior than any of these and the main reason keeping her out of a deep red quote is the gate. I feel Noske isn’t going to go back from the gate, as late she’s going to need to circle around a lot of traffic cones who wont be going anywhere, hence why I feel Noske is going to roll forward from the draw with a real lack of speed engaged here and try and find some cover forward from midfield. The risk with that is getting posted 3 deep the trip no cover (if Pike jumps well on Moderato and tries to potentially hold her out), but even so, she may just be too good for them. Form around her this prep has proven very strong (defeated Levitate, who took Indian Pacific to the line, and Avalon Bay, who came out and blitzed them at his next start), I loved the win last start, and although there may be some luck involved, happy to get involved at anything over $2.30.

3 units WIN Aberdeen Queen @ $2.30+

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Race 7 – Sentimental Gift

This mare looks set for a massive prep. Was 1st up over the mile in a 60+ off the back of 2 very good tune up trials, where they absolutely crawled out in front and she found herself 3 back the fence. Had to take the rail on a day where it was a very much off rail, defying the track pattern in finishing powerfully from well back for 2nd, with 4th from that race Cousin Ivan coming out and winning the Aquanita last Saturday.

Is only going to better for that run and over more of a trip from the mile up to the 2000m and although the draw doesn’t look great on paper I don’t read too much into them in these staying races and am backing Laqdar to find her some cover.

I honestly don’t mind that Pike’s not riding and he’s sticking with the claim, and am keen she can post up an even better performance here then she put on the table 1st up. She has been the subject of some early support ($3.80-$3.10 today) and I’ve got her marked $3.50 which I’m almost certain will be available at some stage.

Roman Flirt ($2.30) was brave in running 3rd last start over the 2100m behind Divine Shadow, when 4 wide no cover the trip from gate 10, sticking on to go down just under a couple of lengths. Draws even more horrible in 17 here and this field looks just as hard, gets Pike but I don’t feel her turn of foot is at same level as Sentimental Gift and off the back of that genuine gut buster last time around, could be due a flat one perhaps? Opposing but concede she is a nice horse who can win.

1.5 units WIN Sentimental Gift @ $3.50+

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Race 8 Beaufine Stakes – Samizdat

One of mine, I love this guy, and just reckon he gets a beautiful set-up here to kick off his campaign on a winning note. Class horse who we last saw when far from disgraced in the G1 Railway Stakes over the mile, he has a tremendous 1st up record (4:3-0-0), and defeated current favourite in the race Essential Spice 1st up in 2019 over this track/distance when carrying an extra 5.5kgs on his back, before backing that up with another win over that runner the next start, when carrying 7 extra kilos.

1000m isn’t his best distance, but he is a genuine G1 quality horse and has won at the distance before, and given Essential Spice wasn’t able to run past a Fox carrying 60kgs 1st up, I can’t quite work out how she’s managed to work herself into favouritism against a horse of this calibre. Maps perfectly to get a beautiful run midfield with cover from barrier 2 in a race where the tempo will be hot, and had him marked a $3.20 favourite in my market, so his current price of $3.40 is more than acceptable.

2.5 units WIN Samizdat

Mervyn

One of the more underrated sprinters going around in the state at the moment, 1000m freshened is this guy’s absolute bread and butter. The last time he was given an 8 week freshen for an 1000m scamper, he beat a field that included some very handy horses in Plutocracy, Floyd, Chix Pic and Carocapo. Now, this field is much stronger than that, but I’ve got him finding the top here with the superior gate speed for a great front running rider in Yuill from gate 8, where he can take it up and, as he tends to do, give a genuine kick on straightening and at some point, even look the winner.

Misty Metal has the potential to lead to if they are very aggressive, but she does have a tendency to be tardy and miss the kick at times, so I’m confident Mervyn will be dictating and can run a huge race. $3.80 for a drum will do me.

1 unit PLACE Mervyn

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Our Previous Results

• Units Staked: 8
• Units Returned: 12
• Running Total: +4 units
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