Group 1 Underwood Stakes Preview & Analysis
September 26, 2019
A quality field lines up for the Underwood Stakes including Homesman, Hartnell & Gatting. A hard race to pick the winner but Chris Camilleri has done the hard work for you.
Distance
- 1800
Track Conditions
- Good 4
- Rail: 6m Entire
Track Bias
Expecting a slight advantage to runners handy to the speed and within 4 lengths from the pace and in the straight lanes 3-6 will be ideal.
Early Speed
- Average
Expecting an average run race with Gailo Chop (12) to take up the running and Homesman (13) coming across to sit outside of the speed, Trap For Fools (2) sits behind the pair with The Chosen One (3) getting a beautiful run one out and one back.
Top Pick
Can’t go past the Liam Howley trained 8. Homesman, couldn’t have been impressive when resuming over 1600m at Moonee Valley sitting outside the speed and showing brilliant acceleration between the 400-200m in a very high speed rating. The step up to 1800m won’t be an issue after running right through the line last start and draws to work across the field to sit outside the speed set by Gailo Chop who has drawn outside of him, if he is able to repeat that turn of foot it will be tough for anything to run him down.
Danger
Expecting to see sharp improvement from the Murray & Forsman trained 12. The Chosen One here second up, sat just off the speed last start and didn’t seem to handle the tight turning Moonee Valley track so will appreciate the longer straight at Caulfield. Stepping up to 1800m is ideal and from barrier 3 draws to do no work to find the one out one back position and follow Homesman the entire.
Lay
Hurts me to do this to one of my favourites but laying the old warrior 1. Hartnell, the big concern is drawing barrier 1 as it looks as though he will be back buried on the rails off an average pace and needing a lot of luck in the straight, he has been running well but hasn’t won a race since September 2018 and is a query at the trip.
Betting Strategy
Back Homesman (2 Unit Win Bet)
Back The Chosen One (0.5 Unit Win Bet)
Lay Hartnell ($5.00 or below)
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