FREE: Belmont Selections: Saturday 25th June

One of the best Saturday cards of racing in a little while greets us on G3 Strickland Stakes Day at Belmont, a card that has somewhat come out of nowhere. Perfect conditions, very little winds in play with the track a soft 5 and the rail out to the 9m position.

Race 1 – 11:59AM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK PLATE (1200 METRES)

8. One Cool Gal – 11. Amjaad – 7. Diamond Command – 1. Hang Glider

Interesting 2yo event to pick off proceedings with a number of differing 2yo form lines clashing here in what to me appears quite an open race.

One Cool Gal was a very nice win on debut, got across to a nice spot from a wide draw and got the perfect run through in what looks a weaker race than what she faces here. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of speed engaged on paper, we know the Maschino’s are free-wheeling types that love to roll and this big filly certainly fits that mould, does Chris try and find the fence? I think if he can cross these then she is going to be very hard to get past

Not many 2yos win like Diamond Command did on debut, but if I am going to play devil’s advocate, she got a race where there was a tearaway leader who set a breakneck tempo and set it up for something coming from the back. Here she’s likely back last and having to round a deeper field up in a race that on paper doesn’t appear to have as much tempo.

Amjaad is an interesting debutant for Simon Miller, been to the trials twice and thought the most recent was a very impressive hitout when allowed to roll to the front. Once Carbery gave her a squeeze there she really responded and was going away from them on the line in relatively sharp time too. The booking of Holly from the inside marble suggests they will show their hand to try and hold that fence from any potential speed planning on crossing. With just the 53kgs after the claim, think she’s capable of running a good race on debut

Race 2 – 12:34PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

6. Mr Mt Walker – 9. Gold Merits – 1. Native Chimes – 10. Prize Pursuit

Mr Mt Walker

Resumes here off a recent back straight trial win (lets not go into what an absolute farce those events are) and from what I could see in the vision, looked good. Runs really well fresh is the key for me here, 1st up last prep went around in a much better race in 60+ grade, finishing 4L off recent Belmont Sprint winner God Has Chosen and only 2L off Son Son carrying more weight than him, with horses the likes of The Fugazi and Speed Dream in behind him. That is absolutely A1 form in comparison to what he faces here. Maps to get the run of the race from the draw with the main speed influences coming across from out wide, I think he looks very well placed to be breaking through fresh and we are getting each way to find out.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Native Chimes drops back from a 60+ to a Westspeed and gets down to a more suitable distance here. Went out hard last week over the 1400m with Vic in the saddle and wasn’t beaten all that far, just 0.5L of Savanik, less than 3L off Galactic Storm and My Boy Eddy who would start very short in a race of this nature. May need to do some work early to get across Safety Bay but won the last time we saw her in this grade and think she looks well placed to run a good race off the 7 days. Holly has ridden 6 times for 2 wins and 2 placings.

Gold Merits has no fresh form to her name, but the recent trial behind Seminole Brave I thought was huge, she absolutely savaged the line with a jockey in the saddle that has never rode in a race before. Should carry some residual fitness given her last race start was in April in what was a very good, consistent prep from her. She’s never trialled better and gut feel says she has carried that form through with her. A horse that always needs luck in transit with her racing pattern, but she will be thundering home late.

Prize Pursuit has been trialling very nicely against some very sharp types, thought they might step him out over something a little sharper before jumping straight to this trip the way he’s looked in his trials? Will come out running from the barrier and should be able to lob on-speed or just in behind the speed that will come from out wide no problems. Johnston Porter booked a good push in itself that he’s going well and he is in a very astute yard that I give lots of respect to.

Race 3 – 1:09PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

5. Bold Success – 6. Aragain – 3. Reliable Star – 2. Acting God

Bold Success

Is one that comes from what I think is the superior form reference behind Sluice Box last Saturday backing up off 7 days. Sat in the breeze on a very strong tempo and gee he hit the front a long way out, I’d say they were 700m from home when Kesh took over from a floundering Baramagic, was left a sitting duck but loved the way he still whacked away to run 3rd. I can’t see them going anywhere near as hard here, Kesh should be able to sit on the shoulder of a leader that you know will compound and be able to hold that tactical field position on his main rivals. He’s won his last 2 attempts off the 7 day back-up, I can see Kesh getting rolling here at the 500m and really pouring the pressure on except the difference this time around is there should be more petrol left in the tank at the business end, each way all day.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Acting God was given a 10/10 last start when victorious stepping out over this sort of trip for the first time and in the long run I do think this will be his go. Barrier 1 could get sticky for him here if he’s 3 back the fence, because you’re going to have horses the likes of Interstate falling back into your lap and even Bonneville Black from potentially leaders back stopping on you once the pressure goes on, which could leave a big task for him to pick up and sprint to make up the required ground on those who are out in clear air and rolling earlier. Regular rider Whiting misses so Turner picks up the ride, which I think purely on the fact Whiting is a staying specialist is a penalty. Looks a difficult steer and Turner is going to need to give him a peach in what could potentially be a tricky race to navigate

Reliable Star was disappointing last week. CJP gave her a 10/10 and when the sprint went on she just looked so dour? Really lacked that turn of foot that I was of the impression she possessed, Sluice Box went by her like she was standing still. Loses the senior for the apprentice and finds what I think is a race with far less tempo expected which could be a positive for her as maybe she just got run off her legs stepping out to the trip 7 days ago. Has run well off the 7 days previously when she backed up into the Natasha, but I find her hard to dive back into with the change in hoop.

Race 4 – 1:49PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

5. Bitofmerit – 4. Astrape – 1. Flying Missile – 7. State Of Power

Bitofmerit’s resumption will be one of the big talking points of Saturday’s card of racing.
Huge Hong Kong offers knocked back, with the owners and Michael Campbell instead opting to keep racing him in WA for the time being. In both of his wins, he’s not only been able to find his way out of trouble but do so almost arrogantly. The recent trial was really good, quick time, given an effortless time of it, Knot Secret was able to pick him up and that galloper has since come out and gone horribly, which takes somewhat of a little bit of gloss off the performance but No Change also came out yesterday and won on debut in WA and looks a nice horse in the making. I’m going to take him on the face value of his two trips to the races thus far in his career and think he’s a potential star. From 2 Lucy just needs to find some clear air when she needs it camped off a handful of runners that will be in front of her when they straighten as it could get tight for room. The sectionals he is able to reel off late is that of a horse with far better things in-store. This is his toughest test to date, but feel he is more than up for it. With the scratchings, just no value at the current $1.80 quote.

Astrape the clear danger for me. Was absolutely huge in her win fresh on debut for the Roy Rogers stable. Carried 60.5kgs, caught 3 and 4 wide throughout and still able to pick them up in the last 100m in a figure posted of 3L faster than the 3yo 1000m benchmark. With the speed engaged here, Rawiller can find some cover camped on them and we know she has a really good turn of foot.
Gets some weight relief, looks a great set-up, she may just be bumping into a star.

Race 5 – 2:29PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1650 METRES)

1. Fangio – 5. Memorable Miss – 2. Fashion Queen – 9. Testing Love

Fangio

I’ve actually marked Fangio favourite in my market. Has had the apprentice on at both starts this prep from very wide alleys, last weekend Kesh found trouble more than once in the straight and thought given the circumstances she hit the line really well and should have finished much closer to them. Huge class dropper from a 72+ to a 60+, interesting to note in the stewards report Roy notified that moving forward they would attempt to ride her forward and on-pace if possible. The booking of CJP is a huge jockey change, I can see him in this, a race devoid of early speed, rolling forward from the gate or if they opt to ride her more conservative, lobbing in that 3-4 wide moving line in what should be a bunching field on the corner. She has won with 60kgs before, Roy not claiming her with the 61kgs is a real signal of intent for mine and this is by far the easiest race she’s encountered for some time. Yes, she does have to do it with a big weight but I think a senior jockey will make a world of difference for her.

1 Unit WIN

Memorable Miss

You have to be completely forgiving of the 1st up run from Memorable Miss, who at the current quote I am happy to save on here. Although not mentioned in the stewards report looked to be really getting into her work once they straightened, really picking up between runners before being completely chopped out at the 200m. Currently unbeaten at this stage of her career at this trip, the issue for me is the messy race shape and where she maps from the gate, looks to be a race with no real tempo, from barrier 10 and how she has a tendency to be slow to begin she will end up somewhere near the back of the field. In a race that looks to me like it could be run at a dawdle, does that leave her too much to do from where she settles? Or on the other hand, if they really bunch on the corner and Chris is in the 3 deep moving line, she could be in that sweet spot and get the perfect run she needs to outsprint them in the straight.

0.5 Units WIN

Race 6 – 3:05PM OWNER APPRECIATION RACE DAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. False Statement – 4. Burnya To Survive – 3. Timely Outburst – 9. Gunmetal Grey

False Statement

Big price here False Statement for what I thought was just about the run of the meeting last start. Missed the kick from a wide gate, went back to the last, got onto the back of the eventual winner Startrade into the corner and has absolutely rocketed home for 2nd, running some of the best splits of the entire meeting. Startrade has won since, the 3rd horse Nowhiteflag has won since, it looks to be a super form race. Draws a better gate here to potentially hold up a pair or two closer and finds a race with good pressure on up front that should set up well for a horse with a turn of foot coming over the top late. O’Donnell sticks, he’s flying and think he’s capable of storming over the top of them. A horse with his race pattern you will need each way, and that is exactly what we are getting.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Burnya To Survive was one of the finds of the summer for Jason Miller resumes here in big Burnya. Put 4 in a line, working from maiden class up to taking out a 66+ at his most recent trip to the races, something that us incredibly hard to do, without doubt he’s an incredibly progressive type.Has had the 2 trials leading in and thought they were collectively a pass mark. Raceday is a different beast, he’s a big horse that takes a little while to wind up but when he hits top gear he has one of the more powerful finishes on him I’ve seen in recent times. I think with the pressure on up front, this sets up for something with a big turn of foot finishing over the top of them, love the booking of CJP, big chance to kick off the prep with another win, just slightly worried he may be a tough underdone against some very sharp, race-fit horses.

Timely Outburst you have to respect. Drops from a 72+ back to a 66+ and after the claim for Holly only carries half a kg. I was maybe a little harsh in my initial judgement of Timely Outburst last start who was very well supported in betting. Had to do some work early to get to the breeze outside Charge who was running along at a very strong tempo, was taken early in the straight by It’sarayday who had the perfect drop in on the front pair and although she just battled away to the line, she was only beaten home by 2 nice horses and 1 potential star. The booking of Holly suggests to me they’ll take no prisoners from barrier 1 and try to hold up in front although there will be some pressure on in the form of Puli/Ultimate Command. Looks well placed and if Holly can find the fence and give a strong kick on the bend, they’re going to have to be good to run her down.

Race 7 – 3:45PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Cheval De Vaga – 5. Em Tee Aye – 4. Chili Is Hot – 9. Brave Dream

Cheval De Vaga

Looks disappointing on face value and on paper, but I thought Cheval De Vaga’s performance first up no trial had plenty of merit. Drew 11 of 13, was 3 wide no cover throughout on a strong tempo, he looked gone at the top of the straight but once Kesh gave him a reminder, I saw a glimpse of that characteristic toughness we know he possesses and thought he really picked up again before being completely chopped out at the 150m. Here, stepping out to the 1400m, Keshaw can roll to the top virtually unopposed and dictate proceedings and we know, pressure on or not, how hard he can be to get past in the straight. Absolute bulldog of a horse and he is certainly a bet for me at the current price, love this set up and if he can get some cheap sectionals in the mid-race stages, I don’t think they’ll get past him.

2 Units WIN

Would have loved the opportunity to save on Em Tee Aye but I don’t think prices will permit. Polarising galloper who has put in 2 massive runs on resumption thus far this prep. The first when originally $101 in early markets was very stiff behind Rokanori, beating home Searching Rocs and all bar one in a quality field, before last start flooded home and was just unable to pick up It’sarayday in the shadows of the post, which could by the end of the day prove to be super strong form. O’Donnell rides him an absolute treat, he’s 3rd up stepping up to what he appears to be screaming out for in 1400m, he has set the perfect platform, but I still have an air of uncertainty about him given he has had a tendency in the past to put in a stinker on occasion. Maps a treat from 5, could almost grab that 1×1 position, ultra hard to beat if he carries his form through and a deserving favourite, looks to have matured this prep.

Brave Dream is an interesting galloper resuming and is one to watch. Been a while since we have seen her at the races this promising Peters Investments galloper. 2 recent trials, thought she hit the line super in a hot little trial behind Bright Diamond under Vic Corver in the first of those, before most recent under Johnston Porter I thought was pretty plain? Has never placed 1st up in her career from 3 attempts and this is a pretty hot little field to resume in. One to follow this prep, but I don’t think this is her race to kick off in and win, however must be respected for the combination and what looks a terrific map for her. Chili Is Hot was huge fresh and can have a say with the right run.

Race 8 – 4:20PM FURPHY – STRICKLAND STAKES (2000 METRES)

7. God Has Chosen – 1. Rostropovich – 3. Marocchino – 9. Prince Turbo

God Has Chosen steps out to the 2000m for the first time but have always felt, even when he was doing it last prep, that he would appreciate or even improve getting out over this trip. Unequivocally should have won the Hyperion, so understandably will start very short here despite the somewhat unknown of him at the distance. Hard to beat? Very, interesting re tactics where Clint decides to settle him in the run, could be a little sticky early doors in what looks to be quite a muddling beginning, especially with no great deal of speed engaged. I’m even money for him, so no real surprises from me.

Rostropovich the one that is over my price in the field is Rostropovich and boy would I love for him to wind back the clock. His run in the Hyperion was huge and you’d think 2000m would be more up his alley and maps for a far more economical run in transit. It would be a fantastic story, discarded Melbourne Cup import to being a live chance in a G3. I’ve marked him $12 and he’s currently $21, so he poses the value under current circumstances. $4.40 a drum is worth a bet.

0.3 Units WIN/1 Unit PLACE

Race 9 – 4:50PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. It’sarayday – 12. Secret Plan – 5. Angelic Miss – 1. The Spruiker

It’sarayday 

The question on a lot of lips in the WA racing fraternity is how good is It’sarayday? What is his ceiling? He’s fierce, he’s still green, he stargazes late in his races once he hits the front but undeniably he has a huge engine and an upside we cannot put a finger on yet. I think for him this is a huge acid test, perfect draw, positions himself on-speed in a race that lacks tactical early dash, he will be the first to come after Excellent Dream and most likely hit the front in the straight, but there will be some very sharp back marking sprinters who will be flying at him late. If he stargazes like he has shown a tendency to do, it will be heart in mouth stuff. Completely not one to question Simon Miller who is still discussing Winterbottoms with him, but I feel winning a race of this strength would truly stamp his quality and back up how he feels about him at home. There are still a few lingering question marks and I hope he puts them to bed. Marked $3.10.

Secret Plan ticks lots of boxes here as the testing material. Clint Johnston Porter on, on the minimum and all of a sudden he is the best chance for mine of the back markers in this.
Holly from wide gates at both starts this prep and hasn’t been disgraced, he just needs the vigour of a senior rider who can really muscle him down to bring out that dynamic sprint that he possesses.
Won’t be far off them from the barrier, the form around Wilchino and Triple Missile when Pike was in the saddle is as strong a form as we’ve seen in WA over the previous 12 months, I’ve cleared out in my market with these two, marked a $4.00 second favourite.

Angelic Miss was disappointing fresh but a mare I still have plenty of time for, expected more from her in the conditions and with the run she had. The concern for me was spotting Bright Diamond 2L on straightening settling behind her, and not taking any ground off her in the straight.
She takes some good ground late and finishes 0.5-1L adrift of her at the finish, it’s a great pipe opener moving forward but the wheels almost looked to spin a little there for a moment and she was as far off Bright Diamond at the top of the straight as she was at the finish. She’s still run the race fastest L200m, but this is an incredibly hot field and I’d like to see her do it again to be jumping back on board. 1200m is far more suitable and hope we see her rocket home.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Mr Mt Walker 1 Unit EACH WAY
• Race 3 Bold Success 1 Unit EACH WAY
• Race 5 Fangio 1 Unit WIN/Memorable Miss 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 False Statement 1 Unit EACH WAY
• Race 7 Cheval De Vaga 2 Units WIN/potential save if a doubtful drift on Em Tee Aye TBA.
• Race 8 Rostropovich 0.3 Units WIN/1 Unit PLACE

10.8 Units Staked, belter of a card, good luck if following.

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