FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 19th March

Couple of stinky Saturdays in a row haven’t been great viewing for pocket (or my mental health) recently, but we must keep moving forward, confident we can turn it around here on Saturday. Rail true tends to favour on-pace early in the day, especially with an easterly. No savage patterns so far this season so can anticipate most likely hard to make ground early, even out as day progresses.

Race 1 – 12:23PM BELHUS RACING STABLES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

5. Metallon – 7. No Dice – 6. My Baby Blue Jean – 3. Rockin Rupert

Metallon

Thought we’d get in early with best of the day. Really like this horse, love the family, loved the win 1st up defeating Harmika, held her off convincingly, since franked the form beating a really handy one in Otheroneson Wednesday with an absolute space back to the rest of the field. Maps for a plum run on back of MBBJ. Even in the trial prior to 1st up run, underdone and really knuckled down when challenged to stay in front, real linechaser and confident he gets the better of these from a really economical run in transit. Marked $2.50.

4 Units WIN

Race 2 – 1:08PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

6. Keytrade – 11. Differentiator – 9. Stella Fair – 1. Fred Dag

No interest from betting perspective for me here.

This looks a lottery for mine.

Stella Fair looks to get things really softly out in front for CJP, capable of stealing it

Gold Merits always flashes home, racing pattern finds trouble, will always need luck.

Keytrade was a really nice win to break his maiden, form franked since with Market Stryke Sunday and even Wicked Fox winning since, this is a big jump but the $9.00 does look a little generous, field not exactly deep, can roll forward for an in-form Steve Parnham from the gate in a race that lacks early speed

Differentiator not impossible either is racing well at a big price.

Race 3 – 1:49PM ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

8. Sheikh It – 3. Big Bada Boom – 5. Ginger Baker – 6. National Guard

Sheikh It

That run last start, how big? Tailed off 6 lengths last after being uncharacteristically slow away, assumed he’d play no factor. Flys home into 4th, beaten less than 2L by Time Scale, who is more than a handy conveyance and have a look at him past the line, Jerry Nose has to deadset pull him up. Banking on him beginning better, if Lucy can find a spot, that last run just cannot ignore. More than happy getting involved at double figures.

1 Unit WIN

Big Bada Boom

Big Bada Boom does a lot wrong, really well placed, should find breeze here if he jumps, does so much wrong so often, such a hard horse to trust really had an opinion of him earlier in career, Rawiller back on a big tick, definitely one to watch.

1 Unit WIN

The Ginger Baker trap is one I have been sucked into on numerous occasions this prep. Comes out of easily the strongest form reference behind Dom To Shoot, was the run of the race, desperately unlucky, should have been in the finish. Problem for him always just flops out, slow beginner, makes it hard for him to hold a spot. Back in grade, sticks at the mile, senior jockey back on, ticks a lot of boxes but has proven costly

Race 4 – 2:28PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

3. La Farola – 8. River Rubicon – 6. State Attorney – 1. Express Time

La Farola

Really interests me at the price. Her best runs in career to date have all been 1st up. Fresh last prep beat home a potential superstar (albeit unlucky) in God Has Chosen, prep prior 1L adrift of another star in Notorious One. Her best runs in her career have been at 1200m, gets Chris Parnham for Kyra Quill, drawn a gate in a race where there looks to be a genuine tempo, can park off and launch down the middle. $7.00, each way odds, more than acceptable to get involved.

2 Units WIN

Express Time incredible prep, 1200m I think sees her out in a race of this depth

Kia Ora Star is flying, just would have liked to have seen him at 1400m, think these are just a bit sharp

River Rubicon incredibly progressive, really nice horse, can win, question marks around strength of last win? Did plenty on clock but track playing fast, horse back in 2nd was only Policere? $2.35 you’re expected to take, big step up in grade, taking him on especially when I struggle to map him from the draw.

State Attorney the blow out, loved the trial and loves the soft draws where he can stick to the fence. Sprints very well fresh.

Race 5 – 3:12PM FURPHY – GIMCRACK STAKES (1100 METRES)

1. Amelia’s Jewel – 6. Penny On The Queen – 7. Rathmine Lady – 11. Devine Belief

Amelia’s Jewel has a stranglehold here, win on debut was superb. One of a very smart 2yo, sub 11 sec final 200m very rare. The only knock the barrier, 2nd trip to the races, drawn right out, plenty can go wrong as history has shown for juveniles drawn wide alleys. Not sure it’ll be enough to hold her out since I believe only a shocker of a draw like 15 or 16 could see her beaten in the Karrakatta, deservedly short.

Couple I like that I think are over the odds at big prices.

Penny On The Queen

Really like this youngster for A.Maley. Realistically, should have won last start by 3 or 4 lengths, if she’d found galloping room before passing the 100m. Barrier 10, Lucy can stay off fence find cover, no doubt she will be charging at them late and $4.80 a hole looks enticing.

0.5 Units WIN

Rathmine Lady

Not many win from stone motherless like she did on debut. Once balanced up, she exploded, the only other runner in the field with a sub 11sec L200m split, along with the favourite. The extra distance suits, draws in which means there is most likely some traffic but she looks a line chaser with a real high ceiling. $23.00 the pair with the potential for much longer and place dividends upwards of $4.60, more than happy to spec if the favourite finds trouble.

0.5 Units WIN

Devine Belief the trial horse, Harrison has big opinion of her, not a lot from in behind her those trials but does look to have an engine and hasn’t been overly green, big watch. Been kept very safe in Karrakatta markets.

She’s Greysful the proven form, is capable but not for me.

Race 6 – 3:45PM AMELIA PARK – PERTH STAKES (1100 METRES)

5. Snowdome – 9. Left the Building – 10. All The King’s Men – 1. Man Crush

Snowdome

More than happy to side up with Snowdome. Loved the 2 efforts in his initial prep behind a couple of proven, strong performing 2yos in races that rated up there with the best 2yo races on figures we’ve seen in WA this season. Trialled up twice in preparation for this and both were very soft hit-outs without blinkers. Gets the blinkers on here for the first time, sharpen him up
Really talented colt, marked him $4.50 so the $6.00 on offer is more than enough for me to get involved for. Horse with a strong profile that will be on speed and takes bad luck out of the equation.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Man Crush been racing super up on speed so anticipate that’s the path they go down again, hard to get past

Left The Building is definitely big X factor at $9.00. Only been to the races once, very green when not able to pick up the stablemate, 2 trials have been unreal, could be the one that blouses them late.

All The King’s Men have plenty of time for, desperately unlucky so far in career, last 2 runs have been huge when not a lot has gone right, in-form jock on board, down in the weights, think he might get out in betting late and we will be able to have something on, recent mid prep trial I thought was very slick.

Race 7 – 4:20PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Time Scale – 9. Dazzling Dane – 3. Trade War – 5. Blow Me Out

Time Scale

Should be able to bounce, roll and dictate here. Last start win terrific, did plenty of work early to find breeze, soft win in the end considering the weight she had to carry/the work she did in the early stages stepping up quite sharply in trip. Think with that grounding, being able to dictate in customary role here, be very hard to run down for best front-running apprentice in the business
Will lean to the mare if it’s looking difficult to make significant ground from back in the field.

Units TBA

Dazzling Dane

Thought might get better price, Dazzling Dane the horse with the untapped upside in the field. Gone from maiden win to performing well in a Saturday 60+ in just the 3 starts, progressing at a rate of knots. Last start huge behind Cristal Dane, no real early speed so got back last, had to fan widest, spotting a massive start and finished on the heels of Cobbanco, who was one of the runs of the meeting last Saturday in a much stronger race. She has a really nice turn of foot, O’Donnell’s conservative style suits to save her up, if she is within 3-4L of Time Scale on straightening things could get very interesting late and if pattern suits, more than capable of going past.

Units TBA

Race 8 – 5:00PM SEACORP – GRANDSTAND CUP (1500 METRES)

2. Son Of Bacchus – 4. Son Of A God – 3. Dom To Shoot – 9. Majinika

Difficult end to the day, very much kicking off here with no interest in this race whatsoever from a betting perspective.

Son of Bacchus and Son Of A God not such different runs in Bunbury Stakes, price differential between the two little big for mine

Playing Marika been trialling up the best she ever has prior to this, may not be her race but don’t think she’s finished winning in her career just yet, expect a big, back me next start run.

Bruce Almighty disappointing last start, drops 4kgs, can cross and give them something to run down here, especially if pattern is favouring

Race 9 – 5:40PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

11. Pale Rider – 3. Sluice Box – 1. Native Chimes – 4. Tradem’ In

Pale Rider

Pale Rider has been very well tried early markets, horse with the upside, the one I could back if I saw north of $5.00-$6.00 late, probably lacked condition in that 1st up effort carrying the big weight but I thought the effort didn’t exactly scream “back me next start”, thought he really flattened out late, albeit with improvement to come with the run under the belt, but is that the best platform stepping straight from 1400-1800m? I’m not sure, so will wait for a price worth finding out for late.

2 Units WIN @$5.00+ SP

Sluice Box will be well tried after huge performance in Esperance Cup tramping deep the entire, drawn awful once again and goes up sharply at the weights, carrying the 59

Native Chimes is a fighter, untried at the trip and not sure she’ll run it out but will fire to the top and really try and get them all chasing, never gives up and tries her heart out, will give you a sight at a big price.

Chances don’t end there, lottery to end proceedings.

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Metallon 4 Units WIN
• Race 3 Sheikh It 1 Unit WIN/Big Bada Boom 1 Unit WIN
• Race 4 La Farola 2 Units WIN
• Race 5 Penny On The Queen 0.5 Units WIN/Rathmine Lady 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 Snowdome 1 Unit EACH WAY
• Race 7 Time Scale/Dazzling Dane Units TBA
• Race 9 Pale Rider 2 Units WIN @$5.00+ SP

11 Units locked in, potential for more with updated play/prices in races 7 & 9.

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