FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 12th March

Pattern for me going to be crucial tomorrow, with a few short-priced favourites that do look really hard to beat. If it’s playing on-speed it probably reduces how keen I am on a few of those and will inflate how keen I am on a couple of others, vice versa for those horses that will likely be back in that 2-3 deep moving line with cover. The track has played beautifully all season but will be keeping a keen eye on any advantages or disadvantages that may appear early in the day.

Race 1 – 11:48AM TABTOUCH-WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. Alien From Mars – 3. Point Taken – 4. Sichern – 6. Short Talk

Alien From Mars is 4th up here. Drew 12/12 in a high rating midweek 1200m contest. Got right back to last and rattled home late to just miss Mankind, sub 23 sec L400m and a huge last section given the tempo (they went 4.7L above benchmark to the 600m). His race pattern hurts, as he’s definitely going to be out the back once again here, but this is easier than his last assignment and he is evidently flying. Pace will be genuine enough with Short Talk and Kelvin engaged, price late?

Point Taken is 1st up, bar plates off. 2 trials, 1st was a bit plain but the 2nd trial was terrific I thought, really loomed up under little riding and looked like she could have easily won the trial if given a little more urging. Bar plates off so feet must be right, this is the easiest race she has seen in some time and although she generally gets better as she builds into her preps, I think this is a winnable starting point with some luck in running.

Race 2 – 12:30PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1200 METRES)

9. Loopy’s Baby – 2. Capricorn Man – 1. Galaxy Affair – 7. Mack Mack

Loopy’s Baby

Pretty keen on Loopy’s Baby here I thought he was terrific on debut when offered not a lot of favours in the run. Did it tough out wide and still loomed the winner and was grabbed late by one I actually have a bit of an opinion of in Penny On The Queen. Think he’s smart. Should be able to park just in behind the speed from 6 here and for me looks the one. $2.90 at time of writing is thin, looking at playing $3.40+ late and I’ll be betting up, watch the market.

2 Units WIN @$3.40+ SP

Capricorn Man looks a nice horse. Really liked what he did through the line last start after having practically everything that could’ve gone wrong in the run, go wrong. Screaming out for extra ground, how much of a start will he be spotting Loopy’s on straightening? Going to need a peach from Turner.

Race 3 – 1:08PM VALE ROB HARVEY (1000 METRES)

1. Panzdown – 2. Chantorque – 3. Mankind – 5. Acromantula

Panzdown

How good was this win 1st up? 59.5kg, Ziebell set a fast tempo, sat back off it and got no assistance with a lack of a cart into the race, had to get moving 3 wide early to stay in touch and then once they straightened just exploded like a really good horse. I thought there was a bit of improvement to come there too. Aside from Chantorque, this for me shapes up event better than last start and is only penalised 0.5kg for his troubles. Ziebell and Acromentula will ensure this is as genuinely run as you can get once again, hard to not see him with that natural improvement after a run under the belt repeating the dose. Confident he can zap them late.

3.5 Units WIN

Race 4 – 1:48PM INTERNATIONAL WOMEN’S DAY HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

6. State Of Power – 4. Super Ex – 7. Klondike Kenny – 1. Material Witness

State Of Power

Comes out of a 3YO race behind Spin The Knife, box-seated and given Pixie Chix had her back in the run, I thought she was really good to only be grabbed by that runner who had a much comfier run in transit in the final few strides. Really had to get moving between the 600-400 as well, which probably just left her a little gassed out late. On paper, this races shapes very nicely for her with the undoubted pressure on up front, from the draw McGruddy can just tuck her away in behind the speed battle with a smother and she is coming from easily the strongest form reference and isn’t penalised at the weights. 3 year old up against the older horses, she ticks a lot of boxes for me. I’m $2.90 so will be waiting to see what Betfair does late with her, far too short at her current quote at the moment.

2 Units WIN @$2.90+ SP

Race 5 – 2:24PM SCHWEPPES – J.C. ROBERTS STAKES (1800 METRES)

7. Let’sdeal – 4. Henchard – 9. Outspoken Lad – 10. Rokanori

With a struggle in finding any genuine curveballs that could get Trix Of The Trade beat here despite not being a huge believer of him getting out over this distances comfortably, I am expecting a much improved performance from Let’sdeal with regular rider Shaun McGruddy hoping back in the saddle. Couldn’t get up with the field at all last start in the early stages, few little gear changes and McGruddy is arguably the best beginner of horses in the state, he’s one I had penciled in as having no trouble in time getting these distances and from a much closer settling position, he’s one I’ve got a big watch on. Improver.

Henchard is in the game big time while he hasn’t beaten anything of this quality to date but Rokanori rolling to the top at a gentle tempo is probably the X factor. 2 from 2, really strong through the line after wobbling off the bend last start and a rise in trip looks what this colt is after. Chris Parnham does opt for Henchard though, which is a telling point.

Race 6 – 3:00PM NATASHA STAKES (2200 METRES)

1. Constant Dreaming – 8. Kia Ora Jewel – 2. Fine Romance – 6. Feels Danish

With so many on-trial at the trip, it’s an incredibly hard race to map re. Stable tactics, do they show aggression, or do they want to be conservative to give them the best chance of running out the distance?

Constant Dreaming ticks just about every box. Has early speed to find a spot, travelled into the 1000 Guineas on the corner better than anything else in the race, and held them off there with ease. Yes, she got a beautiful run in transit there but she’s going to get basically an identical run here? CJP on for Lucy, is penalised 2kgs at the weights but I just think you are going to need another runner to both change their tactics, and be able to run out the 2200m to be beating her. $2.60 I’m happy to sit out, but a drift late and I won’t have any problems playing here. 

Fine Romance gets the winkers on so you’d assume they’re going to try be more prominent on her, especially early in the race, but does that put at risk taking away her best asset which is her finish? Thought Constant Dreaming had her well held on the post. I couldn’t go near her at $3.00. Bred to get the trip.

Mrs America is crying out for this trip, but couldn’t have drawn worse than barrier 1 for a big, striding horse that really needs galloping room as we saw last start. 3 maybe 4 back the fence is not going to be the place to be to then work out into clear air, pick up and sprint. Really difficult ride for McGruddy to navigate from there.

Kia Ora Jewel is an interesting runner, the draw for me really hurts. I thought she was a arguably an equally good run as Fine Romance in the 1000 Guineas and she’s over 4x the price here just because she’s drawn a bad alley on paper and not in the famous cerise and white silks. If Knuckey can find the back of a horse travelling strongly enough to take her into the race, I think she can outrun market expectations. 

Race 7 – 3:37PM PASSAGES HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

3. Tena Koutou – 9. Friar Away – 10. Without Reason – 8. Black Chips

Not a race I have a great interest in. 

Tena Koutou the best horse in the race, was by far the strongest late in a strong run 1600m event last start and steps straight out in trip to the 2100m 3rd up. The 4yo has far and above the most upside in this field, reunited with Johnston Porter and gets a nice draw to find some cover midfield. The 59.5kgs over the 2100m is no simple feat of a month lay-off, especially giving weight to regular staying types who are rock hard fit and unquestionably run the trip.

Without Reason and Friar Away come from a brutally run 2200m last Wednesday with the former just getting the nod on the post there after an absolute 10/10 from Jagsy Turner.

Friar Away with the drop in weight and the draw can definitely take up a more prominent position in running here, was 2nd over the trip in this grade 2 starts ago behind the very progressive Holy Enchantment, hard to toss while Without Reason although drawn awkwardly once again, will need another peach of a steer from Turner but is another who drops in weight who you know will stay all day.

Race 8 – 4:12PM RAMELIUS RESOURCES TROPHY (2100 METRES)

6. Tri For Us – 8. Baronova – 10. Blazing Away – 13. Overthought

No interest here for me whatsoever, the horse I’ll be looking to follow out of the run is Baronova. Thought the trial prior to the 1st up run when finishing alongside Bunbury Cup winner Paddy’s Shadow and frequent trial jet Cockney Crew was terrific and then was super I thought 1st up at the mile when never really extended in the straight in amongst plenty of traffic. It may be a run too early, stepping straight from 1600 to the 2100m 2nd up and barrier 14 to contend with, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on what she does here on Saturday.

Race 9 – 4:47PM VINNIES AND ROTARY CLUB OF PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Cristal Dane – 7. Weaponson – 1. Patristic – 10. Holy Ghost

Cristal Dane

This horse has been a revelation since joining Dion Luciani. He’s not only completely flipped her racing pattern on its head, but she’s running time and burning the candle at both ends. Last start, albeit in a 60+, she has run her first 600m 7.5L faster than average over the 1400m at Ascot, and in a 13 horse field has come home in her final 200m in the 6th fastest L200m split of the race. That is a massive performance, and although up in grade here, there is absolutely nothing that is going to stop her from finding the top again here with less weight on her back. She’s been up for a very long time, and the prep has to end somewhere, that could be the only small negative but gee she’s shown no signs of slowing down. Off last start she’s even gone better.

2.5 Units WIN

Weaponson

Weaponson is back in trip from the mile last start, where he was nothing short of huge. Went forward from the bad draw and was caught off the track the entire, those who settled 1,2 and 4 finished tailed right off and he was still whacking away at the finish with the winner having an absolute PR in transit. 2nd to Resortman the start prior over this trip who ran well in the Bunbury Stakes on Saturday I thought, if he can find a 3 deep with cover line from the gate, he’s going to be hard to beat. Proven performer in this grade, with Cristal Dane the one stepping up into it, there’s a lot to like about his chances. Saving.

1 Unit WIN

Comes A Time doesn’t fill me with a whole heap of faith in regards to the rise up to 1400m. I can only find him landing midfield here and he doesn’t possess this incredible turn of foot, he’s a box-seating short sprint keep grinding home sort of horse that is really suited at 1100-1200m. I can see the enticement here, since it isn’t a world-beating 72+ field, but I struggle to really want to have him again so I’m sadly hopping off, could be a moral now.

Race 10 – 5:28PM NEOMETALS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

2. How’s The Serenity – 5. Sassy Trader – 7. Reign Of Fire – 1. Lipstick Flickers

Only 2 horses that can win this race for mine.

How’s The Serenity is on the 7 day back-up after an extraordinary win last Saturday. 1.09.88 is serious time for the 1200m circuit, especially when you consider Holly sat up on her in the last 100m. This was all after only finding the breeze, which is far from the easiest place to win from at Ascot. I’ve got her mapped leading or at worst, finding the breeze again here without any issues, and take on trust the stable wouldn’t back her up off the 7 days if she wasn’t bouncing off the walls at home, definitely the one to beat in the get out. Goes in multiples, I wouldn’t get in S.Miller’s way if he doesn’t walk out of Ascot Saturday with at least a double. 

The other runner that interests me is Sassy Trader who is unequivocally flying. The 1st up run although it says 10th of 12, was monstrous against the pattern and he was massive again last Saturday in a very strong 72+ 1100m. Settled last of 6 in a race dominated on-speed by Spin The Knife and Express Time, who may just well be the most underrated horse in WA at the moment, and absolutely rattled home in some pretty dominant L6,4,200m splits in comparison to anything else. Has had a tendency to be tardy at the beginning of races, but if he can hold up leaders back from barrier 1 here up to what is definitely his most favoured trip 3rd up, when How’s The Serenity drops them on the bend, he will be the one steaming home late to potentially make a race of it. At the price differential I’m happy to be on small.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Loopy’s Baby 2 Units WIN @$3.40+ SP
• Race 3 Panzdown 3.5 Units WIN
• Race 4 State Of Power 2 Units WIN @$2.90+ SP
• Race 9 Cristal Dane 2.5 Units WIN/Weaponson 1 Unit WIN
• Race 10 Sassy Trader 1 Unit WIN

8 Units locked in, potential for 12 if we see our desired betting prices in races 2 and 4.

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