FREE: Ascot Selections: Saturday 8th October

Ascot opening day, what a time to be alive! Perfect conditions for racing, rail at 3m and from all reports the track is in superb order.

Race 1 – 11:59PM AMELIA PARK INITIAL PLATE (1000 METRES)

7. Live To Tell – 2. Brave Halo – 8. Shell Bell – 1. A Lot Of Good Men

Looks to be a couple of very sharp babies going around in the opening 2yo event of the season and the market certainly has not missed them.

Live To Tell off the trials looks your winner, she looks very, very sharp. Absolutely dropped them off over the 850m at Belmont with something in hand and from all reports Simon Miller is very bullish about her as a prospect. My query here being the speed drawn underneath and where she may land from what could potentially be a sticky draw if she doesn’t really fire out, despite showing very good gate speed at her two trials to date

A Lot Of Good Men/Catch The Red Eye/Hard Act To Follow and Shell Bell all look very quick and are all drawn underneath her, just wary if she doesn’t step as cleanly as she has been she might land in a very tricky spot parked deep, you can tend to see 2yos overdo it early doors when wide without cover. Not a betting proposition at the price.

A Lot Of Good Men looks a very nice colt for Trevor Andrews who has also trialled very stylishly and drawn for a great run, his team is flying at the moment and this colt looks very professional.

Although I think he will want further and I don’t like the map for him over the 1000m likely getting back to last or near enough to, but Brave Halo’s recent trial and the way he hit the line I thought was outstanding, he’s had some early market support and think if I was to bet in the opener, having a small spec on him at the price or even just backing him the place would be the way I would go (although the $3 a drum has now gone).

Race 2 – 12:39PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

9. Mystery Island – 7. Devonia – 3. Blackwater Bay – 2. Axel R Eight

I’ll opt to side up with who I think is the point of difference runner here in Mystery Island.

This last start winner of the Toodyay Cup won very well there and ran a strong figure in doing so.
For a horse joining the WA staying ranks, for me he ticks a lot of boxes. International performed horse, proven stayer who joins what is a weak staying ranks we have here, can sprint off a genuine tempo and loves dry ground, it’s a good mix for a relatively fresh horse on the scene here in WA. I love how he maps here too, lands right on the back of the leading pair Axel R Eight and Devonia stalking their every move, gets some weight off his back from his last start win and think on profile, there should only be improvement to come, he’s the point of difference for me. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:14PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1500 METRES)

1. Tinsnip – 2. Ginger Baker – 7. Dad’s Bigheaded – 3. Aberdeen Queen

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Race 4 – 1:54PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

2. Great Fortune – 6. Crezee – 9. Queen Alina – 5. Never Sober View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:34PM CROWN PROMENADE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Bustler – 6. Tiffany Street – 1. Trade War – 2. Invictus Domini

Bustler

I have a mountain of time for this horse and think Neville Parnham’s team, and the manner in which some of them have been trialling over recent weeks, are about to start getting very, very warm. His debut win was super when not everything went right, got shuffled a bit further back than they would’ve liked from an inside draw but once he saw clear galloping room he really let down through the gap like a good horse. His recent trial was super, looks to have come back a bigger and better 3yo and love the fact that they’ve bypassed the 3YO classic to get into this 1200m 60+ as a 3yo on the minimum up against the older horses. Maps for the run of the race one out, one back, will be in-front of his main dangers once they straighten for home and I don’t think they’ll catch him.

3 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:10PM CROWN METROPOL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

13. Vampi At Play – 7. Real Grace – 5. Penny’s Afield – 3. Colossal

Vampi At Play

Almost a bit of copy paste from the previous here, I really like the Neville Parnham trained 3yo Vampi At Play and the way this race shape looks to be advantageous to her in terms of the map and where she looks to land in the run.

Has had the 1 trial to tune up for this fresh assignment and was never asked for any effort there, coasted to the line really nicely in very slick time too. 1st up last prep at 1200m should have been the first blemish on Top Of The Pops picket fence, never got any luck in the straight when locked away and still beat home Upper Limits who was a very impressive winner at Northam last Sunday in what I suspect will be a hot form race moving forward. Love the map for her here, lands just in behind the speed and when you take into account where the main dangers map here or are drawn, Real Grace barrier 14, Penny’s Afield barrier 12, Colossal drawn barrier 7 will get back in the field and spot her a start as well. Although with luck these horses can win I have no doubt about it, they will certainly need exactly that and as such, am happy to land on the horse I can trust to be right there in a terrific spot in running.

1.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 7 – 3:45PM SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

11. Sneaky Chance – 4. Kia Ora Star – 3. River Beau – 5. Rokanori

One of the hardest races of the day to assess this one, I was close to $5 the field so in terms of betting plays I’m happy to go looking for some value specs at odds.

Now, on face value some might look at Sneaky Chance recent trial and think it was a bit plain, but the way I look at it she’s finished alongside Amasenus and arguably had an easier time of it, so I’m in the camp although she’s came in last that it was a good trial. I like how this race shapes for her and where she’s drawn to the outside of the line. Olga Louisa scorching the turf out in front, River Beau holds up behind them prominent, Mood Swings will be prominent and Multiverse is almost destined to be parked 3 deep from barrier 9. I think this will provide a lovely opportunity for O’Donnell to be the horse in that 3 wide line with cover on his back, blending into the race on the corner. Trevor Andrews team is absolutely flying at the moment and think she looks over the odds at $8.00.

Kia Ora Star the other horse I think maps for a nice run with race fitness on his side who I think is absolutely flying. Incredibly unlucky last Saturday at Kal, beat home State Of Power the start prior when virtually held up the entire straight, you could mount a case he could have won that race last week and given most of these are fresh or have had a decent stint between runs, won’t feel the pinch of a very hot tempo.

Rokanori the class, 1000m the query? Looked to be somewhat run off his legs a fraction in 2 very fast recent 950m trials. Where does he get to from the barrier also? 2 1000m trials into a 1000m race 1st up doesn’t fill me with confidence.

Race 8 – 4:20PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Brooklyn Pier – 4. Karli’s Karma – 8. Ginger Green – 6. Advanced

To give you an insight into the nature of how open this contest is, I was $6.50 the field. Big field, incredibly difficult to map, plenty of back markers engaged, it’s truly very messy but in saying that, the horse I marked at $6.50 is currently sitting there at $15 and $4.40 a place so for me there is clear each way value in the form of Brooklyn Pier.

This horse has a reputation as being a bit of a perennial bridesmaid, which is why I feel recently he’s been a bit disrespected in the market recently, but I think he’s flying and in one of the toughest races to map of the day, he’s one of the most sure aspects of it. 2 starts ago only 2L off a key chance here in Advanced when really having to do some work to get over from a wide draw, he gets a 2kg swing on that runner here, last start beaten 1L by Hannan’s Handicap winner Let’s Galahvant, who would also be a very good winning chance in this line-up. He brings in some really strong form and has been racing as well as he has on soft Belmont tracks which I don’t think are to his liking. He’s a better horse at Ascot, is much better on top of the ground and I think from a great draw can roll forward to be in a prominent position here and give you plenty of cheek at each way value.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

Karli’s Karma was a huge fresh win, she looks super progressive and is only getting better with racing, it’s just where O’Donnell gets from the draw? Looks a very sticky map.

Advanced in a similar boat but concede is again with the right run a grea winning chance I thought his last start effort behind Alsephina and Benji’s when closing off in the fastest L200m of the day was super, is he a little more suspect at Ascot and again on dry ground? All his best career runs have been on rain affected.

Chance don’t end there.

Race 9 – 5:00PM CROWN PERTH – 3YO CLASSIC (1000 METRES)

6. All Show – 1. Snowdome – 4. Rumour Says – 2. Top Of The Pops

All Show

Off what this horse was able to do fresh off a 400m jumput, she has genuine star qualities written all over her. Led them along under her own steam over this course and not only reeled off the quickest last 200m of the race after leading, did so virtually untouched, belting another very smart Colt in Swear To God in the process. To put it in perspective, it was also the 3rd quickest L200m of that entire meeting, given a little squeeze from the front.

From the barrier and the anticipated speed that charges across I do admit it won’t be as easy, especially if she doesn’t begin as well, but if she leaves as cleanly as she did 1st up she should land right on their lowball and if O’Donnell finds a gap I just think she will be too good.

The issue for me here, and is why I won’t be getting involved at the $2.10-$2.20 is if she gets strung up on the fence behind them and they are stopping on her, while horses the likes of Snowdome and Rumour Says are out in clear galloping room when she could potentially still be locked away. For me thats the main, only only real downfall to her winning chances here.

I’m 2.60, so I’ll be looking for some money to come for others here before we can really dig the heels in.

4 Units WIN @$2.60+ BSP

Snowdome a huge horse of interest for me here although the draw/weight I think dents his winning chances. He’s been trialling the house down and I don’t think they will want to press forward and gut him here 1st up from the gate with the Grand Final still a while away. Will just let him roll forward to where he’s comfortable, I have very high hopes for him this preparation, very exciting horse.

Rumour Says has huge X factor, hasn’t beaten anything but it has been the manner in which she has done so.

Race 10 – 5:38PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

6. Treasured Star – 12. Em Tee Aye – 7. Eeyore Wayz – 4. Buster Bash

Treasured Star

All luck aside, if they are making any sort of ground at the track late in the day on Saturday, I think Treasured Star just takes care of these and announces himself the clear top-seed heading towards the Railway Stakes.

The improvement this horse has made trial to trial has just been ominous. She’s had 3 hitouts, each one infinitely better than the previous and the most recent of those was just absolutely outstanding, as good a trial as you will see for a horse being set for a Railway preparation. Although the barrier isn’t ideal, I genuinely believe if they are able to win from back in the field once that inside pad has evened out a fraction as it traditionally does by this stage of the day, this horse can pick these up and do so quite well as well. Love 1400m as a kick-off point for him, suspect after the weekend he might be a lot shorter in our Railway Stakes all in market. Very keen he can blast the punters out on opening day.

4 Units WIN

Staking Plan

• Race 5 Bustler 3 Units WIN
• Race 6 Vampi At Play 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 8 Brooklyn Pier 0.5 Units EACH WAY
• Race 9 All Show 4 Units WIN @$2.60+ BSP
• Race 10 Treasured Star 4 Units WIN

9.5 Units staked, potential for 13.5 if we see our bet price in the 3YO Classic.