FREE: Ascot Selections: Saturday 29th October

Strong, competitive meeting out at HQ this weekend with the features of the day being the G3 Asian Beau over the 1400m and G3 Prince Of Wales Stakes over the 1000m, two of the key traditional lead ups to our G1 Railway and Winterbottom Stakes respectively. Ascot has been playing predominately on-speed and can’t say I expect much different with the rail in the true but the weather could change things (8-20mm forecast throughout the day, compared with the 0-5mm that was forecast yesterday morning).

Race 1 – 12:24PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

4. Lexington City – 5. Queen Of Soul – 7. Category Three – 1. Hint Of Mint

Race 2 – 1:04PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 2 (1200 METRES)

2. Oly’s Choice – 4. Success Play – 5. Requisition – 10. Valency

Race 3 – 1:48PM TABTOUCH – PLACID ARK PRELUDE (1000 METRES)

3. All Show – 2. Baby Paris – 1. Just Go – 5. Invincible Ruby

Race lost a bit of its X-Factor with My Bella Mae a scratching, but with this set-up I can’t deny All Show looks incredibly hard to toss.

Although Snowdome took the honours in the 3yo Classic, All Show never got an opportunity to strut her stuff and the strength of the win prior to that effort was why she started a 1.85 favourite in that 3yo Classic market. Just Go will kick up to lead them, Baby Paris likely breezes and All Show stalks the pair of them. I marked her 1.85 so at anything black figures I’m happy to bet up, confident she just sits behind the pair of them in running and with clear air should be going past if she is as good as I think she is. She’d be my clear top seed for the Placid Ark currently.

Baby Paris is very sharp in her own right, just think the way this race looks like it might pan out will suit the favourite more than it will suit her from that gate. She will be a very good gauge if both are to get even luck in running how good All Show is heading towards the Placid Ark.

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Race 4 – 2:24PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

9. Truly Inspired – 3. Pray Again – 4. Great Fortune – 1. Lady Chant View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 3:08PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

11. Saintorio – 2. Speed Dream – 1. Mr Delegator – 6. Strike Now

Saintorio

Potentially a sticky map to navigate, but I’ve got a pretty big opinion of Saintorio. He has to drift from 3.90 though doesn’t he? Thought in this field he would be each way all day and that would be the bet but the punters have really piled in early into that proven 3yo formula on or near the minimum up against the older horses.

He was terrific last start breezing outside another quality 3yo in All The King’s Men and never giving up the chase. On a WA Guineas path, he’s really fit given it’s his 5th run of the company and he’s ready to be tested at this kind of trip now. Drops 5kgs at the weights, I think theres a spot for him if Brad can follow the 2 speed horses Castillo De Lago and Mr Delegator across from their wide barriers. If Brad can get him in, tucked away better than midfield with some cover, he’s the one I’m keen on but just need more than what is currently on offer price-wise. Each-way not a common bet type for me but that’s how I’d go in this situation if it presented itself late.

1.5 Units WIN  

Speed Dream main danger for me, love the McGruddy pairing and thought he was very unlucky not to win last Saturday. Superior run to Holy Ghost, gets a weight swing in his favour and another favourable map. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:49PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

8. Sniparoochy – 6. Acromantula – 10. All Day Session – 3. Long Beach

Sniparoochy

Sniparoochy recently trialled alongside Acromantula and have a feeling this race could pan out in a very similar fashion to what we saw there.

Acromantula finds the top and burns along, Sniparoochy sits on his shoulder and in the trial she just cruised past him under very light riding. I think the map looks very similar here, and that she has really matured as a racehorse. Thought she went to a new level last preparation and I’m a bit grey on how well some of the seasoned sprinting vets of this field are going, your River Beau’s and Long Beach’s and the likes. Pretty confident she can kick off her campaign in a winning way if she doesn’t have to do too much work to get to the breeze.

2.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 7 – 4:25PM TABTOUCH – PRINCE OF WALES STAKES (1000 METRES)

12. This’ll Testya – 11. Miss Conteki – 4. Nerodio – 6. Hot Zed

Great race, best part is by this stage of the day we will have a good indication of the right lanes and where you want to be making your runs in terms of a track pattern.

If they are making their way to the middle with some success, Miss Conteki just needs to find a back to follow to take her to the corner and if she’s improved from that fresh effort she is going to take a world of holding out. There is an abundance of pressure here, which should very much play into her favour.

This’ll Testya was just monstrous in the Crawford. Had no right to be charging at the line late like she did with the run she had in transit. Think she lands right behind the speed here again and won’t have to tramp deep like she did 1st up. Wilchino being scratched and she could just about land in the breeze here with Money Matters having already come out.

Hot Zed was a ridiculous run, he just continues to defy market opinion but will need Pat Carbery to donate some of his sea-parting abilities to Troy Turner from likely 3 even 4 back the fence given he hasn’t been stepping all that well of late.

Nerodio was also huge in that same event, another who will be saved up for one last crack and will need the gaps to appear.

Race 8 – 5:03PM HOSEMASTERS – ASIAN BEAU STAKES (1400 METRES)

2. Last Of The Line – 15. Treasured Star – 17. Karli’s Karma (EM1) – 16. Trix Of The Trade – 7. Devoted

Last Of The Line

I thought LOTL was huge in the Eurythmic given he very much needed the run. Has a flawless 2nd up record (3/3 2nd up in his career) and won 2nd up last prep with 62kgs against a strong field, I still think he’s a little underrated as a result of the setbacks he has had in his career to date. From the draw he can take luck out of the equation, something the key fancies in the market (Devoted drawn 17, Trix Of The Trade drawn 18 and Alaskan God drawn 13) will need from where they will get to in the run. Lands in the first 5 in running and think he will run you a mighty each way race.

1 Unit WIN

Treasured Star

I was happy to take 2.20 about Treasured Star fresh off her progressive, outstanding trials and while it was a train-wreck from a bad gate on a very on-pace bias day, if you can forgive that effort, the once Railway Stakes all-in favourite is now at double figures in a race that she needs to win in order to gain a start in that race. Love the fact that Clint jumps back on, drawn a gate to hold a position, $11 is a big price and I’m happy to have something on to see if she’s made of a lot more than what she showed 1st up.

0.5 Units WIN

If Karli’s Karma was to gain a start here and she got out to something close to double figures or upwards, I could also entertain backing her. She’s drawn a plum alley and is genuinely untapped, we have no idea of where her ceiling could be but the form in behind her remarkable win on opening day has been red-hot since.

Race 9 – 5:39PM JOAN PARNHAM 90TH BIRTHDAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Brooklyn Pier – 5. Ginger Green – 7. Probity – 9. Special View

Brooklyn Pier

Would only make sense Neville Parnham has one primed to take out the race named in celebration of his mother’s 90th birthday. Brooklyn Pier is loving being back at Ascot and being back on-top of the ground. Grabbed in the shadows of the post last start by 2nd favourite in the Asian Beau Trix Of The Trade, 2nd to Karli’s Karma the start prior in what has proven to be a hot form race, add into the mix that Stevie Parnham could ride a broomstick home at the minute and it does look a favourable set-up for him to be breaking through from a lovely draw.

With the forecast, I’m a little more reserved than I initially was. Doing the form with 0-5mm forecast it was no issue but the 8-20mm potential rain is concerning for a horse that needs to be on-top of the ground, especially given that it is also the last race of the day. If we are on a Good 4/soft 5 by this stage of the day, we’ll stick fat but any worse, my mindset changes.

3 Units WIN if Soft 5 or better and the most part of the rain misses

Brooklyn Pier and Ginger Green were the only two runners I had marked in single figures so I’m happy to save here. Maps for a sweet trip here one out, one back and was really good when a tad unlucky last time we saw him in that same strong Karli’s Karma form reference. Don’t want to be losing on him and handles all conditions.

1 Unit WIN

Staking Plan

• Race 5 Saintorio 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 Sniparoochy 2.5 Units WIN
• Race 8 Last Of The Line 1 Unit WIN/Treasured Star 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 9 Brooklyn Pier 3 Units WIN if Soft 5 or better and the rain misses/Ginger Green 1 Unit WIN

6.5 Units locked away, potential for 9.5 units if the weather man isn’t on the money (fingers crossed)