FREE: Ascot Selections: Saturday 22nd October

Belgravia Stakes Day out at HQ this weekend and what a race it is going to be. Rail goes out 8m after being at the 15m position midweek so again, a relatively fresh inside pad to work with, will pay to take not of any potential patterns emerging early.

Race 1 – 12:36PM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET PLATE (1000 METRES)

1. Brave Halo – 9. Twist Of Gold – 4. Duo Muso – 3. Cashew Later

Some sharp types going around in the opener for the babies on Saturday.

We found Brave Halo in the initial plate (little trumpet) who posted a very strong early season 2yo figure when sitting outside the leader Live To Tell and being too strong for that galloper late. Looks to be potentially a bit more speed drawn underneath him here from the outside barrier and where he might land in the run however he looked the ultimate professional on debut. At $1.60-$1.70 over the short course from the widest gate, he’s just unfortunately not a betting proposition.

First season sire Bondi saddles up his first WA runner in Twist Of Gold, who’s recent 400m jump out I loved, Luke Fernie trains and CJP booked catches the eye. Drawn a little sticky but thought she looked very sharp and seemed to be doing it well and truly under her own steam, if I was to have a bet in the race this is the way I would go each-way.

Really liked the recent 400m jump out of Cashew Later for the Gangemi’s, Brad Parnham opts for the Ryan Hill trained Guarding Heaven after trialling her however.

Duo Muso the full sister to Saintorio and although maybe not as sharp as some others in her 400m jump out, that bloodline produced wins at 2. Gets the Blinkers on, a good draw and Chris Parnham booked.

Race 2 – 1:14PM GUINNESS HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

3. Sneaky Chance – 1. Can’t Be Done – 2. Ghost Who Walks – 4. Olga Louisa

Money came hard 1st up for Sneaky Chance off a plain-ish trial. Just got squeezed up at a vital stage and was knocked around a bit, looked like she switched off in the straight as a result. I’m going to forgive and say she maybe needed the run and didn’t get a lot go right, interesting to see they’ve booked the apprentice here however. I just think where there’s smoke, there’s fire, the form through her last prep is more than good enough to be taking this out, maps for a midfield cover run in a race that is always going to have really good speed with Olga Louisa engaged.

Ghost Who Walks has been up forever and is still flying but is always going to need luck from barrier 1 and with his racing pattern, just think he’s under the odds holding current favouritism but certainly can win, especially if they can (doubt they will) hold up leaders back with Olga Louisa a perennial roll off the fence type of leader.

Can’t Be Done was huge at Kal sitting 3 deep no cover on a hot speed after one of the more extraordinary betting drifts you will ever see ($3.30-$36 some places). Although it was a day that suited those on-speed, it was still a massive win and there has been some good runs out of that race since. Should land close to the box-seat in running here, just think back to the 1000m might potentially be on the short side for him, all his best form is at 1100-1200m

Race 3 – 1:50PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Keeper Sweet – 5. Zadar Rock – 6. Pretty Friar – 2. Henchard

Keeper Sweet

The horse that stands out for me here is Keeper Sweet. She’s just a real line-chaser and looks your mapped horse here tucked away just in behind the speed. Rock-hard fit at her 4th run for the prep, some will say she was suited last start at Northam off a very moderate tempo it can be said but she still got the job done and both Strike Now and Ghobella have come from that race and run huge since. Think she is capable of eventually racing in better company than this and being competitive, I marked her favourite here so at $5.00-$5.50 I’ll be backing her.

1.5 Units WIN

Pretty Friar is over the odds at $12-$13 and the run at Kal was much better than it looks on paper. Like the jockey change and has run well in much better races than this, happy to have something on her to at that price.

If it is playing on-pace, Zadar Rock steps up in company but should get to the front and lead very softly at his 3rd run for the prep and will definitely give them something to run down. Just a little under my price currently. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 4 – 2:35PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

11. Queen Alina – 3. Off Wego – 5. Blackwater Bay – 6. Mystery Island

I didn’t mark up this race, staying races just aren’t my thing and am just about ready to give up on them completely, not having much fun with them at the moment.

Most of these are just battlers and Queen Alina is far and above the most progressive, like the wide draw for her to just get back and keep out of any trouble (She was just about a moral beaten last start in my opinion), love the trajectory she’s on and to be honest, I think you are getting a backable price to find out.

Off Wego loved getting back to Ascot last start as well it was a huge turnaround in his form while Lindsey Smith backs his up again Mystery Island for the 3rd week in a row and not the only one of his placed this way on the card either, remains to be seen but am not a fan personally. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 3:15PM THE BEYOND BLUE WALK FOR ROBERT HARVEY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

10. Penny’s Afield – 2. Big Screen – 9. Nero King – 13. Sweet Tea

Penny’s Afield

She was certainly one of the eye-catching runs on opening day Penny’s Afield. Was unsuited getting right back off a very moderate tempo on a very on-speed day, once she was able to extricate around heels she hit the line as good as anything, 4th fastest L200m split of the entire meeting. Looks to be more pace engaged here with Invictus Domini and Big Screen likely to lock horns, I’ve mapped her worse than midfield with perhaps 2 or 3 behind her? The slight concern for me is that there could be a few very good roadblocks between her and the on-speed runners but like the fact she is getting out over the 1400m here. I think $3.50 is backable, really like her as progressive type, just needs some luck which hasn’t been her best friend in her career to date.

2 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 – 3:50PM PKF PERTH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Above The Peg – 1. Mood Swings – 5. Universal Pleasure – 8. Our Wind Spirit

I was happy to make Above The Peg one of my best of the day thinking they’d go up $3.00 thereabouts but 2.70 quickly became 2.40 and now 2.30 so I am a little less enthused, but gee I think he looks hard to beat on the weekend.

Above The Peg

This horse has been a revelation since they began riding him off-speed after being an on-speeder early doors. His winter campaign was enormous, twice picked up Savage One from near last which is certainly not easy to do and was arguably the run of the race or close enough to when off the track throughout in a Raconteur. Loved the recent trial, finds a race with really good tempo here where he gets in on the minimum, the slight knock is that he will be spotting a couple of good ones with a bit more of a base a start in Mood Swings and Universal Pleasure, but if he can keep them within striking distance with a bit of cover, I’m confident he can pick them up late. Would just love to see some Mood Swings or Universal Pleasure money that gets him back out to around that 2.90-3.00 mark and we can have a good go.

3 Units WIN @$2.90+ BSP

Mood Swings clear next best, marked him $4.40 and if they really come for Above The Peg and he gets out to $5.50-6 my mindset changes and I’ll be happy to have something on him. Maps to land in the box-seat here from the ideal draw. Just a little grey on that 1000m blanket finish behind River Beau as a form reference but like him back up to 1200m. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 7 – 4:25PM DRUMMOND GOLF – BELGRAVIA STAKES (1200 METRES)

1. Snowdome – 2. Amelia’s Jewel – 6. Rumour Says – 8. Azena

Snowdome

Have been talking about this Colt for a while now off the back of those two trials prior to his 1st up run in the 3YO Classic and thought potentially he could emerge as the most exciting horse in the state over the Spring/Summer carnival. His run was just incredible in the 3yo Classic when deep the trip on a savage tempo. I know Luke Fernie said Rumour Says would take improvement from the run 1st up, but she had Snowdome’s back and settled beautifully with that cover in the run, and she made absolutely no impression in the run to the post, I’d argue he was even going away from her late in the piece.

Huge respect Amelia’s Jewel, but with a long campaign in-store and grand finals further down the track, yes she will be forward enough to run really well but off a couple of what I thought were underwhelming trials, and an inside draw being a position where she has never found herself before in a race, at the price I’m happy to take her on here.

Snowdome can just roll across with Man Crush to sit on speed in a race where (much unlike the 3YO Classic) I don’t think they will go as overly hard and fast out in front. He is a very, very exciting horse and am more than happy to end up with egg on my face if so be it and be in his corner.

4 Units WIN

Race 8 – 5:02PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Bustler – 2. False Statement – 8. Rockin Rupert – 3. Trade War

Bustler

Nobody missed the return of this bloke on opening day. The obvious knock here is where he lands from barrier 11 in the capacity field but you would think with the full field size there will be some good pressure in front and plenty of horses engaged here are back-markers and will be happy to go back.

I’m not overly concerned about the barrier as I think he’s definitively the best horse in the race and he only needs a little bit of a luck and he lands midfield or potentially even a touch better than with some cover, what price would you take about him then in the run if that’s where he ended up?

Been really surprised where some of the early money in this market has gone (Who the hell is backing Real Danger?) and as a result he’s been 2.25 out to 2.60. This to me smells a bit like Karli’s Karma on opening day. Huge 1st up win posting a massive figure, big drifter as people were potting her from the barrier she drew and from a map perspective (me included) and she was ridden like the best horse in the race and gave them windburn. This has that sort of feel to me.

I think 2.60 is more than enough for a horse with his upside and profile and suspect he would have been more than competitive in the Belgravia, hence why Nev has opted for the alternative route here in a 60+ to keep him and Snowdome apart. We could draw the short straw and end up 3 wide no cover here sure, but sometimes you just have to throw the maps or potential speed maps out the window and back the horse you think is the best horse in the race if you’re getting a backable price, which I feel we are.

3.5 Units WIN

Race 9 – 5:39PM THE QUOKKA SLOT APPLICATIONS CLOSE 26TH OCT HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

6. Chili Is Hot – 12. Atlantis Beach – 5. Billy Ray – 11. Acting God

Chili Is Hot

Think the last approaching start time will throw up some very backable prices in what is a very even yet deep finish to the day and I do like a couple even though I marked the race $6 the field. Chili Is Hot savaged the line 1st up behind Em Tee Aye when really not offered any room at a vital stage passing the 200m when she was really building her revs. Think she’s better suited at the mile and can certainly sit closer in running here from the barrier, she didn’t begin all that badly fresh she just got shuffled back from a wide gate. Always improves 2nd up, $10 thereabouts is more than enough for me to have something on Tash to be poking her through late.

1 Unit WIN

Atlantis Beach

Would love to see a drift Atlantis Beach from his current quote. He was huge on opening day when 3 and 4 deep off the track in a hot form race behind Karli’s Karma, Brooklyn Pier has already franked that form when just pipped last Saturday at the post by Railway contender Trix Of The Trade. He had no right to fight back through the line as he did there, he is a horse I have a big opinion of. With a bit of luck early if Steve Parnham (who could ride a rocking horse to win at the moment) can jam him in and get him rolling from the 600m he can sustain a run that most of these can’t. $6.50 upwards and happy to play.

1 Unit WIN @$6.50+ BSP

If there is a roughie in the race that could be the beneficiary of a hot middle part of the track late in the day with some 3-4 wide cover, I think Acting God could get out to a big price late, I’m convinced this horse is flying. Not mentioned in the stewards report but saw no daylight until very late in that same Karli’s Karma race and thought once he got out it was too late but he hit the line as good as anything. Loved both his trials prior to that 1st up run and if they are coming down the middle of the track late in the day, if Carbery can get him 3-4 deep cover moving into it on the corner with a back to follow, he’s my best roughie of the day and could be a wild price late.

Staking Plan

• Race 3 Keeper Sweet 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 5 Penny’s Afield 2 Units WIN
• Race 6 Above The Peg 3 Units WIN @$2.90+ BSP
• Race 7 Snowdome 4 Units WIN
• Race 8 Bustler 3.5 Units WIN
• Race 9 Chili Is Hot 1 Unit WIN/Atlantis Beach 1 Unit WIN @$6.50+ BSP

12 Units locked in, 16 Unit day if we see our pet prices races 6 and 9, interested to see what the market does late in both of those events.