FREE: Ascot Selections Day 5 of The Pinnacles Gold Rush Day 10th December

The finish line is in sight. Been a terrific first edition of The Pinnacles (not terrific from punting perspective, thank god for Wednesdays) but there have been plenty of good stories come from it. 10 races on the final day, with the 1400m WFA Gold Rush the feature and arguably, the race of the carnival. Rail at 1m, some strong SW winds and a typical track, one to get.

Race 1 – 11:48AM TABTOUCH-BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

5. Beads – 3. Acromantula – 1. River Beau – 2. Kia Ora Star

Beads

Think the market has settled in the correct position in assessing this race.

Beads was huge fresh, winning posted 3 deep the trip in a very strong race from a figures perspective. Likely stalks the leader Acromantula here from the gate once again in the small field with River Beau not jumping well enough to breeze, Kia Ora Star the other who could land there and give him a back to follow into it but if not, we’ve seen not getting cover isn’t really a big concern for him as we saw last start. Really nice 1000m sprinter and $3 is a nice price for a bet in the opener.

2 Units WIN

Acromantula was uncharacteristically poor last start and the fence being off certainly did not suit either. Had to do a bit of work to get across but was still entitled to be a bit better. Start prior only beaten home Sniparoochy, accounting for Buzzoom, Vane Tempest and River Beau comfortably who he gets a 2kg swing on here for having beaten him home virtually out of sight.
1000m specialist, gets a 5.5kg swing on Beads here after the claim for Luke Campbell with his first metro Saturday ride, looks your only mapped leader in the race, he is certainly capable of bouncing back and poses the big danger.

Race 2 – 12:30PM QUAYCLEAN PLATE (1400 METRES)

4. Aiyza – 6. Yarralea – 1. Galaxy Affair – 8. Rock My Way

Toughest race of the day I thought this contest for the 3yos.

Aiyza is well placed back from Lee Steere, was super with Kah on board virtually going stride for stride to the line with Saintorio. Just cannot see how she gets cover here from the gate? Looks 3 deep all day for mine. Marked her favourite but a fair whack longer than her current $3 quote. Galaxy Affair has had the measure of Aiyza at their past couple of meetings but perhaps that trip to Geraldton unfashionable? Market certainly thinks so with the price differential between the pair being a little too big for my liking.

Yarralea is dangerous from 3 back the pegs with an economic run if the splits come. Hasn’t been seen since the Champion Fillies, but you can pen that run when absolutely nothing went right. Start prior in the Burgess Queen she was terrific when not beaten far Laced Up Heels and Amelia’s Jewel. Will need luck, but she looks a promising filly and that Burgess Queen effort is by far the strongest form reference in this field.

Rock My Way put in a really nice performance on debut and the horse she hit the line with also looks talented, with a space back to the remainder of the field. Draws well again and with natural improvement also finds herself with no weight on her back again after Campbell’s claim and think with some positivity she could hold up in front here without a great deal of speed engaged in the race. Great opportunity for Campbell at his first metro Saturday to take the initiative with the set-up and get them chasing early.

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Race 3 – 1:08PM TABTOUCH-WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

11. Samaria – 8. Halatorion – 6. Safety Bay – 2. Reign Of Fire

I think Samaria can prove hard to beat here down in the weights. Last start although only a CL1, couldn’t cross when challenged by a $101 pop and was made to settle for the breeze outside leader. That no doubt cost her the victory but even so, she still had the rest of the field covered easily from that position bar the eventual winner who ran very well again yesterday and is perhaps a tad underrated. Really like back to 1200m, would be ideal if she could cross but worst case finds the breeze again here and drops 5kgs at the weights. As a POD runner, she gets some of my interest.

Halatorion yet another hard luck story in the Westspeed final. Looked to be bolting when held up the entirety of the straight. How much traffic does he find himself in again here from this draw, meat in the sandwich kind of set up again? Love that Oli takes the ride for his mate Roy, showed us a fortnight ago he still rides Ascot as well as anyone, certainly a key player with the right run and think 1200m is his sweet spot. The danger.

Going to give a small push 1st up to Safety Bay as well, have time for this mare and after Taj’s claim gets in with a very winnable weight and a very strong fresh record to boot. Think the map sets up really well for her to get across into a prominent position and her fresh effort last prep over an unsuitable 5 furlongs was terrific. Each way. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 4 – 1:48PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Special View – 6. Bannana – 10. Mojo’s Luck – 9. Rare Encounter

Funny old race with a funny old speed map.

Special View is on the 7 day spin after an uncharacteristic negative ride from Lucy cost him being in the finish. Clearly left the stalls in front but Lucy opted to take a hold, ended up shuffled back caught between horses at a crucial stage as a result and was bolting for most of the straight before getting out late and flashing home. Was a race only run at very moderate fractions, with a more positive ride you could mount a case he even wins that race, at the very least right in the finish. Back in grade here to a 60+, Brad Parnham hops back aboard which I like, he’s low-flying and think this is the most suitable race he has found all preparation, the unknown being his first crack at racing off the short turnaround.

Early doors it was 3x, but currently still seeing Bannana 2x the price of Vitalize? Gets a 3kg swing in his favour for convincingly beating her home the last time they met, albeit at the 1800m. Brett Pope has a big opinion of him and perhaps the jump to the staying trip came a bit quickly or he just wasn’t suited, but that price differential looks wrong to me from a really good gate having already ticked the mile box, something Vitalize is yet to do.

Going to give a push at odds Mojo’s Luck. Was huge off a month between runs last time we saw him at 1700m. Off the track throughout giving the winner the perfect cart into it in a race run 8L faster than average to the 1000m. Definitely entitled to fold up but whacked away into 2nd. These 3yos can come on quickly, more traditional set up between runs and the mile definitely suits. He ticks a few boxes and think he’s over the odds at over 20/1 some places. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 -2:28PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

9. Swim Through – 2. Capital Flight – 6. Tadweer – 1. Moi Choux

Terrific sprint, very good race.

Capital Flight profiles to me a bit like Bitofmerit a couple of weeks back. 3yo returning as a 4yo, put 4 in a line to finish last preparation, resumes off the back of a super 1000m trial where he went to the line as good as Kementari, Time Scale and Beau Rossa in a hot heat. Luke Campbell gets a huge opportunity here, actually rode him for 3 of those 4 wins last campaign so knows the horse very well. Put away two very sharp 3yo fields to end that campaign and after Campbell’s claim gets in very well at the weights in this 60+ as a 3yo 62+ and 3yo Hcp winner.

My concern being, if he gets crossed and whether he has the toe early to hold out Critical Altitude.
If Campbell gets crossed and ends up leaders back with Chris Parnham on Galaxy Cat to his outside, Critical Altitude hugs the rail, where does he get a run? Very sticky little spot for a 3kg claiming apprentice to find himself in. I have a huge opinion of this horse and he certainly can win, but with a slight query on the set-up, doubt he gets out to a betting price for me.

Swim Through was where the value was early and while some of that price has since dried up, he was a huge run in a key form reference for this behind Bitofmerit. Drew wide, Pike went to fence and rode for luck, still held up until the 150m (although not mentioned in the stewards) but once he got room he reeled off a sub 11 sec L200m split, the best for the entire meeting, which is absolutely flying. Have always had the opinion he’s an underrated 3yo, draws far better in 6 here and doesn’t have bad gate speed at all, can certainly settle much closer in running. Should keep him within striking distance and if the track plays fair he is going to be very hard to hold out late. I marked the pair virtually equal favourites so that is where the value lies for me at the moment.

1.5 Units WIN

Big respect to Tadweer and Moi Choux. Tadweer definitely deserves another chance after last start when copping a decent check on the corner after tracking into the race wide throughout. Much better draw, gives a much better showing of himself. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 6 – 3:05PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Hardly Ever – 2. Our Wind Spirit – 4. Bragwell – 8. Real Danger

Hardly Ever

Price has been crunched (was $4.80 early doors) but to me, she looked one of the better bets of the day here for the Simon Miller camp. 2nd up out to a more suitable 1200m and thought she was a terrific run fresh in what I think will prove to be a very strong form reference. Drew awkward, ended up as the meat in the sandwich and raced a little keen early. Once she got out in the straight she really extended nicely late. Think from the draw she can land close enough to the one out, one back here, most likely on the back of Real Danger which would be the ideal spot. Dominant winner at 1200m 2nd up last prep in 3yo company, if she can grab the back of a horse like Real Danger who takes her a long way into the straight, she looks very hard to beat with this set-up.

3 Units WIN

Our Wind Spirit backs up again off the 7 days dropping from a 72+ back to a 66+. Got right back to last, was held up the entire length of the straight and looked to be absolutely bolting in behind them to put it in the nicest way possible. This looks a much more suitable race from a better draw with some strong tempo engaged. Always needs luck a horse like him with his racing pattern, but wouldn’t surprise to see him put it all together with some luck in transit.

Race 7 – 3:40PM DRUMMOND GOLF HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

3. Alsephina – 9. Solaia – 10. Tri For Us – 4. Above The Peg

Alsephina

Pretty hard to knock Alsephina winning again. Don’t think it is as easy as just turning up and winning, but she certainly is going to take the power of beating again here. She put in a huge performance on Railway Stakes Day, 7 weeks between runs carrying the 59kgs and really put them to the sword. Look at the form from the race too, Trade War subsequent winner, Real Danger subsequent place getter, Knot Secret/Special View both very unlucky in their respective races last week. Different world and the race could have since produced 3 subsequent winners. Maps for a similar run here midfield up to a 72+ off a much more standard race to race set-up, stable have big ambitions for him moving forward and is already proven at the mile and a winner at the mile in this grade during the Belmont winter. Unless she encounters some bad luck, I think she should be winning again. $2.75 is rock bottom odds and every chance she could even start shorter with the flurry of money for her last start. You never know with the exchange, but a wobble to $3.30 looks the right price from a potentially sticky little draw for Pike to navigate.

2.5 Units WIN @$3.30 BSP

Above The Peg looks unders for me at $4.60. Should be the same price or potentially even longer than Tri For Us. She gets a 2.5kg swing for only being beaten 0.1L by him two starts ago and maps arguably even better here. Horror watch last Saturday with Taj in the saddle when she never settled in the run. Maps for the run of the race here again from the draw off the 7 day spin.

Casino Seventeen and Solaia are the blowouts, Solaia another who should be much tighter in price compared with Above The Peg, she was a huge run out of the box last start when 4th behind Dom To Shoot.

Never on the track throughout, gave the winner the perfect cart into the race and was still only beaten 2L at the finish (1.3L Above The Peg who had a much better run in transit) and gets 1.5kgs swing in her favour here for arguably being the superior of the two runs.

Race 8 – 4:20PM TABTOUCH-G.A. TOWTON CUP (2200 METRES)

3. Neufbosc – 5. Alaskan God – 4. Stafford’s Lad – 12. Pure Devotion

Alaskan God delivered a near perfect Perth Cup tune up the way he closed off in the Northerly. Certainly looking for more ground now. Interesting to note that Danny Morton has always said this horse needs his runs spaced, which begs the question how will he handle the 7 day spin? Wasn’t a taxing 1800m so doubt that run last week took a lot out of him, but food for thought at the shorts. Tempo on certainly plays into his hands. Is this the afterthought? The Northerly was touted as the Grand Final since the start of the preparation. I marked him a pretty clear favourite, but not as short as the $2.15 currently on offer.

Neufbosc wound back the clock in the Scahill, was a huge performance much like his Perth Cup win. Settled handy, got rolling at the 600m and looked to have Marocchino cold before his toughness kicked in and he got away from him again late, the rest of the field didn’t really make a dent and that looks the key form reference for this race. Has been dropping ratings points for his last 10-12 starts now and is starting to look like the Neufbosc of old is back. Maps a treat again here.

Stafford’s Lad put the cue in the rack early in the Scahill but finished off in the best late splits of the race regardless. Looks to be more tempo here with the engagement of Cockney Crew, Trap For Fools and Buster Bash, added tempo suits his race pattern sustaining his run from the 600m, able to show his typical staying prowess. Was huge in this race last year, Kah takes the ride, he’s over my price.

Pure Devotion I am forgiving of, but part of me also thinks maybe she just isn’t as good as we might have thought? Couldn’t be on her at $5 off that last start effort, no excuses I thought she was just simply very plain. I’d need $6.50 or longer to invest.

Race 9 – 4:57PM THE TABTOUCH-GOLD RUSH (1400 METRES)

14. Kissonallforcheeks – 2. Vilana – 7. Red Can Man – 1. Kementari

I said it about the Winterbottom, but think this has surpassed it as the race of the carnival thus far, with the mix of horses that perhaps were unlucky/unsuited in the Winterbottom going to the 1400m and vice versa about those dropping back in distance from the Railway.

Am already invested Vilana (thought that was sharp punting at the time…) but couldn’t possibly tip into him off his noted couple of setbacks since arriving. Has been passed fit to start, but god it’s difficult to win races of this depth at this level without everything going right, especially after having to travel mid-prep. Godolphin have a mighty opinion of him as a future potential Darley Stallion, but this may not be his time for G1 glory just yet off a frustrating little WA prep.

Kissonallforcheeks is one I suspect may start shorter than the $4.80 currently on offer on Saturday. She was an incredible run in Winterbottom and looked to have them cold all bar the final few strides when grabbed in the shadows by Paulele. At 1400m she is even better suited, absolutely her pet trip and with the speed in the race drawn all underneath, allows her to just blend across midfield with cover and allow her a really nice run from that gate. Very hard to beat.

Kementari I am hugely respecting. Top line G1 form, already very much accustomed having won this race in 2020. Kah in the saddle, trial very sharp. Bang on the mark around an $8-9 chance from a sticky barrier, will get a long way back but there will certainly be 3-4 deep lines building here.

Red Can Man is perhaps a rung below taking out a race at this level, but he is as honest as the day is long and has actually come up over my price. Terrific WFA 1400m form, was a complete pen in the Winterbottom from barrier 16/16 being ridden for speed the way that race was run leading up the 3 wide line. His 1st up effort prior behind This’ll Testya was terrific. Maps for the run of the race from a much kinder draw here, $5 place price looks a little juicy. Not one of mine, don’t think I’ve ever caught him, but poses some value in my market.

Race 10 – 5:33PM $4MILLION QUOKKA SLOT RACE 15TH APRIL 2023 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Panzdown – 13. Speed Dream – 14. The Velvet Queen – 5. Bruce Almighty

Raffle to end the day.

Panzdown comes through the Carbine Club, with Holly hopping aboard for Pat Carbery. Drew very wide, came out well but had to snag (perhaps he’s better ridden colder?), was on the back of the eventual winner but thought through the line he was super. Gets pace on here again and also gets to position up much closer in running from a very good draw. Live chance and think the race shapes nicely for him.

Billy Ain’t Silly was a monster performance 1st up in the Carbine Club when leading the field along 6L faster than benchmark. To beat beaten less than 2L on a day where the fence was also off with definite improvement to come, it was a super performance. The issue here for me is, there is an abundance of pressure again and although he doesn’t have to lead to win, he is certainly best suited to doing so and most likely has to do some real work to hold up in front even from the inside barrier. Perfect 2nd up record, loves the Ascot 1400m, pattern will have emerged by this stage of the day (and if fence is on/off or track is fair) so a great race to wait and see how it is playing before taking a lean on certain runners.

Bruce Almighty is 3rd up now and really building into his campaign. Also comes through the Carbine Club and gets a 3.5kg weight swing on Billy Ain’t Silly and Panzdown. Tad slow away and got right back against his usual pattern of racing, got no room in the straight when completely chopped out and thought his work through the line there was super. Drawn sticky again but the pace in the race could help him get across and find a spot just tucked away behind the speed with some cover if he begins better this week. He could get out to a wild price late.

Speed Dream steps up in grade and goes from a very slowly run race to what on paper appears to be a very fast run 1400m. A horse over the journey that has always seemed to find one or two better, but two starts back his effort in the RJ Peters when beating home subsequent winner Dom To Shoot and virtually alongside Last Of The Line and Devoted reflects he is absolutely up to this grade. Alas, that was also a very slowly run race.

The Velvet Queen another who steps up in grade and maps to find a fair bit of trouble/traffic in running from where she is drawn, but with luck she has the turn of foot as she showed 1st up to get out of it. Comes through that same slowly run 1400m event, but the way she hit the line late once she saw clear galloping room was ridiculous. Think the extra tempo engaged here can help negate those potential traffic issues from the low draw. Huge upside, but has to go to another level.

Chances don’t end there, remarkably.

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Beads 2 Units WIN
• Race 5 Swim Through 1.5 Units WIN
• Race 6 Hardly Ever 3 Units WIN
• Race 7 Alsephina 2.5 Units WIN @$3.30 BSP

9 Units Staked.