The official team lists are in for Titans vs Dolphins, with Beau Fermor returning for Gold Coast while Oliver Pascoe is ruled out and Luke Sommerton takes over at hooker. The Dolphins lose Selwyn Cobbo to an ankle injury, opening a spot for Tevita Naufahu in a backline that still contains plenty of strike.
Biggest Winners – Titans
Phillip Sami
Sami has scored four tries in his past five games against the Dolphins and remains on the wing outside AJ Brimson. That’s the strongest Titans-specific try-scoring trend in this matchup.
Our Tip: Phillip Sami – Anytime Try Scorer
Beau Fermor
Fermor returns from his rib injury and goes straight back into the starting second row. His return gives Jayden Campbell another dangerous hole-runner close to the line.
Our Tip: Beau Fermor – Anytime Try Scorer
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Moeaki Fotuaika
Fotuaika has been promoted from the interchange into the starting front row alongside Tino Fa’asuamaleaui.
Our Tip: Moeaki Fotuaika – Over Run Metres
Biggest Losers – Titans
Oliver Pascoe
Pascoe is unavailable due to concussion, with Sommerton taking over at hooker and Sam Verrills returning on the bench for his first NRL appearance since Round 23.
Betting Impact: The split-hooker setup makes Sommerton’s tackle overs less appealing than they would be with an 80-minute role.
Klese Haas
Haas drops from the starting side to the interchange as Fermor returns.
Betting Impact: Avoid Haas’ tackle and run-metre overs with his minutes likely to decrease.
Titans Defence
Gold Coast have conceded a huge 180 points across their five-game losing streak, which makes the Dolphins’ attacking markets difficult to ignore.
Our Tip: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Winners – Dolphins
Herbie Farnworth
Farnworth is the player I’d target first. He’s scored four tries in his past four matches and faces a Titans defence that has conceded 180 points across its past five.
Our Tip: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Tevita Naufahu
Cobbo’s ankle injury gives Naufahu the starting left-wing position. Against the competition’s bottom side and a struggling defence, the positional change immediately makes him an interesting try-scorer play.
Our Tip: Tevita Naufahu – Anytime Try Scorer
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
The Hammer remains at fullback behind the Katoa-Nikorima combination and gets an ideal matchup against a Gold Coast side leaking points.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Losers – Dolphins
Selwyn Cobbo
Cobbo is ruled out with an ankle injury after playing a major role in the Dolphins’ attack during their recent run. Naufahu replaces him on the wing.
Betting Impact: Naufahu becomes the direct beneficiary in the anytime try-scorer market.
Connelly Lemuelu
Lemuelu is only among the reserves as he attempts to return from a hamstring injury that has kept him out for two games.
Betting Impact: Max Plath and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki remain the cleaner options if targeting Dolphins starting forwards.
Dolphins’ Left Edge
Losing Cobbo takes an elite finisher out of the Dolphins’ backline and introduces an inexperienced Naufahu.
Betting Impact: Rather than automatically backing Naufahu, I’d prefer to concentrate most of the Dolphins try-scorer exposure through Farnworth and Tabuai-Fidow.
Early Betting Verdict
The biggest angle is the Dolphins attack against a Titans side that has conceded 180 points during five consecutive defeats. The Dolphins have also won all three of their previous games against Gold Coast at Cbus Super Stadium, making their attacking player markets particularly appealing.
Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Farnworth enters the game having scored in four consecutive matches, while the Titans’ recent defensive numbers are extremely poor.
Our Tip: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
The Hammer’s support play through the middle gives him multiple ways to punish a tiring Titans defence.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Phillip Sami – Anytime Try Scorer
Sami gives us the best Titans option, having crossed four times in his past five games against the Dolphins.
Our Tip: Phillip Sami – Anytime Try Scorer
Isaiya Katoa – Try Assists
Katoa and Kodi Nikorima have been a major part of the Dolphins’ attacking success, and this is an excellent matchup for the young halfback to create points.
Our Tip: Isaiya Katoa – 1+ Try Assist
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Moeaki Fotuaika – Run Metres
Fotuaika’s promotion into the starting front row should provide a cleaner workload than he had from the interchange.
Our Tip: Moeaki Fotuaika – Over Run Metres
Beau Fermor – Anytime Try Scorer
Fermor’s return gives us a potentially higher-priced Titans option, particularly with Campbell operating at five-eighth inside him.
Our Tip: Beau Fermor – Anytime Try Scorer
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Farnworth has scored four tries in his past four games, while Gold Coast have conceded 180 points during their current five-game losing streak.
The Dolphins have also never lost to the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium, winning all three previous meetings at the venue.
Our Tip: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Farnworth 2+ Tries with Sportsbet and TAB as the higher-priced extension.
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Value Bet
Tevita Naufahu – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the obvious team-list-driven value angle.
Naufahu replaces Cobbo directly on the wing and gets his opportunity against a Titans defence that has leaked 36 points per game across its past five matches.
If bookmakers offer a significantly bigger price than Farnworth, Isaako and Tabuai-Fidow, he becomes particularly interesting.
Our Tip: Tevita Naufahu – Anytime Try Scorer
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Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Tevita Naufahu – Anytime Try Scorer
Titans Try Scorer: Phillip Sami – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Dolphins Try Scorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Titans Forward Try Scorer: Beau Fermor – Anytime Try Scorer
Playmaker Prop: Isaiya Katoa – 1+ Try Assist
Forward Prop: Moeaki Fotuaika – Over Run Metres
Higher-Odds Play: Herbie Farnworth – 2+ Tries
