The official team lists are in for Sydney Roosters vs Dolphins, with the Roosters hoping to welcome back captain James Tedesco while also dealing with the loss of Victor Radley. The Dolphins have named a largely settled side, with Max Plath returning to the starting back row and Brian Pouniu shifting back to the bench.
Biggest Winners – Roosters
James Tedesco
Tedesco has been named at fullback after missing three games with his ankle injury. If cleared, his return immediately strengthens a Roosters attack containing Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans.
Our Tip: James Tedesco – Anytime Try Scorer
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Mark Nawaqanitawase
This is the matchup stat that stands out: Nawaqanitawase has scored five tries in just two games against the Dolphins.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Billy Smith
Smith has been in outstanding scoring form with 10 tries across his past eight games. He remains on the left wing and gives the Roosters another strong anytime option.
Our Tip: Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Roosters
Victor Radley
Radley is out after suffering a concussion against the Tigers and is expected to remain sidelined until the finals. Nat Butcher moves to lock in his absence.
Betting Impact: Butcher’s move into the No.13 jersey increases the appeal of his involvement and tackle markets.
Cody Ramsey
Tedesco’s expected return pushes Ramsey back to the interchange after he filled in at fullback. There’s still a chance Tedesco doesn’t pass his final fitness test, so Ramsey’s role needs to be monitored.
Betting Impact: Avoid Ramsey’s player props until Tedesco’s status is confirmed.
Roosters Edge Defence
The Dolphins bring an extremely dangerous back five of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Jamayne Isaako, Jack Bostock, Herbie Farnworth and Selwyn Cobbo.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
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Biggest Winners – Dolphins
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
The Hammer remains at fullback in an unchanged Dolphins 17 and will be a major threat supporting Flegler, Gilbert and Knowles through the middle.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Max Plath
Plath is named to return to the starting second row after Brian Pouniu started there last week. That’s the Dolphins team-list change I’d target most heavily in the workload markets.
Our Tip: Max Plath – Over Tackles
Jamayne Isaako
Isaako needs just four points to break the Dolphins’ single-season scoring record, while his side enters this game averaging 27 points per match this season.
Our Tip: Jamayne Isaako – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Dolphins
Brian Pouniu
Pouniu produced an impressive 80-minute performance after being promoted to start against Parramatta, but he’s named to revert to the interchange with Plath back in the second row.
Betting Impact: His reduced role makes Pouniu’s tackle and run-metre overs less appealing.
Connelly Lemuelu
Lemuelu remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and is targeting the opening week of the finals for his return.
Betting Impact: Plath remains the main beneficiary and should continue to see significant minutes on the edge.
Dolphins Right-Edge Defence
Nawaqanitawase’s remarkable five tries in two games against the Dolphins makes his side of the field an obvious area of concern.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
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Early Betting Verdict
This is a particularly interesting game for the anytime try scorer market. Nawaqanitawase and Smith bring outstanding scoring trends for the Roosters, while the Dolphins have averaged more points per game this season and possess plenty of strike through Tabuai-Fidow, Isaako, Farnworth and Cobbo.
Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Five tries from only two previous games against the Dolphins is the strongest matchup-specific scoring statistic on the Roosters side.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Smith’s current form is arguably even more compelling, with 10 tries from his past eight matches.
Our Tip: Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
The Hammer gives us the standout Dolphins option. The Roosters are without Radley through the middle, and Tabuai-Fidow’s support running gives him several ways to capitalise.
Our Tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Sam Walker – Try Assists
Tedesco’s potential return gives Walker another elite attacking option alongside Nawaqanitawase, Smith and the Roosters’ edge runners.
Our Tip: Sam Walker – 1+ Try Assist
Max Plath – Tackles
Plath’s move back into the starting second row is the clearest workload change created by the team lists.
Our Tip: Max Plath – Over Tackles
Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Farnworth gives us another way into the Dolphins’ attacking markets and remains one of their most powerful attacking runners close to the line.
Our Tip: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
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Best Bet From The Team Lists
Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
This is my preferred team-list bet. Nawaqanitawase has scored five tries across his two previous games against the Dolphins, while Tedesco’s expected return only adds another attacking threat for the defence to contain.
Our Tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Nawaqanitawase’s 2+ Tries market with Sportsbet and TAB given his exceptional record in this matchup.
Value Bet
Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Rather than chasing a speculative long shot, Smith gives us a strong form-based alternative. Ten tries in eight games is elite finishing form, yet Nawaqanitawase and Tedesco could attract more attention in the market.
Our Tip: Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Mark Nawaqanitawase – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Billy Smith – Anytime Try Scorer
Dolphins Try Scorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Dolphins Try Scorer: Herbie Farnworth – Anytime Try Scorer
Playmaker Prop: Sam Walker – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Max Plath – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Mark Nawaqanitawase – 2+ Tries
