Belmont Tip Sheet, Staking Plan and Horses To Follow – Saturday 5th September

Saturday provides us with a very competitive almost pre-spring card at Belmont, in what was a really tough card to dissect in actual fact with many even fields. The track looks to be a good 4, soft 5 at the very worst with the rail out just the 3m. The middle of the track was the best place to be midweek when the rail was out 13m, so the first few lanes will have had a bit more time to repair themselves and may be where you want to be in the run early, giving those on-speed the advantage. North westerlys around 13-20km/ph throughout the afternoon means there will be a decent headwind in the straight, cover essential for swoopers.

• Our WA Tipping Results Results: +25.05 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 1 – 12:03PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK MAIDEN (1400m)

6. Yamatai – 1. Enduring Moment – 8. Wardian – 4. Miami City

Yamatai:

Don’t mind the set-up for Yamatai here to break through and gets a nice map to give it a real good shake at the price. Led them up last start at Pinjarra in a slowly run race over the 1500m and was just nabbed late by Allez Allez, who has since come out and won again yesterday at the midweeks. Prior to that ran 2nd behind Great Waters over this trip, who has since run 2nd to Giant Leap, with Trade Master also behind him in 3rd that day who has since come out and won also, makes for a pretty solid couple of form references for a maiden like this. From a map perspective that horse has shown he is versatile and can run well out in-front or taking a sit, although I feel CJP will be aggressive here from the friendly gate and try take up the running in a race that doesn’t appear to have too much early speed, so if something takes him on for the top should be able to just drop in behind them and stalk the speed they set. Had him marked favourite over Enduring Moment and at the current quote of $5.00 (Into $4.40 since writing) am happy to have something on given he will likely have them spotting him lengths on straightening. In-form hoop also helps. Wardian ($4.60) the main danger for me, green as grass and will get back in the run but has some talent, just needs to overcome his racing mannerism issues to be winning races moving forward, 1400m suits.

1 Unit WIN

Race 2 – 12:38PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1200m)

7. Eliminate – 2. Dom To Shoot – 4. Kerman Rock – 9. The White Witch

Race 3 – 1:17PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1600m)

8. Brother Paddy – 1. Chatter Session – 11. Stella Anne – 5. Overthought

Brother Paddy:

Think Brother Paddy can run a cheeky race here at a big price. 1st up settled back last from the wide draw after being slowly away and was held up badly for a run at the 250m mark when just winding up and again at the 125m when taken back inside horses to find clear running room, never got warm. Up in trip here 2nd up at the mile, draws gate 1 for Rails Ramoly and gets 4kgs off his back from his last run, if Lucky Laqdar can find some room and be a bit more prominent away out of the stalls, he looks a bit of overs at the $26.00 available in what is a very weak race.

0.25 Units WIN/0.75 Units PLACE

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Race 4 – 1:57PM VALE DELICACY HANDICAP (1600m)

6. Leading Girl – 2. Lonsdale Lady – 1. Aconite – 8. Comfort Me

Race 5 – 2:33PM MRS MAC’S HANDICAP (2200m)

6. Montelena – 3. Burning Pride – 2. Prize Catch – 7. Dark Prospect

Race 6 – 3:15PM JOLLY BEGGAR STAKES (1000m)

6. Jericho Missile – 4. Money Matters – 1. Vital Silver – 8. Tawny Pete

Interesting race this. Will try dissect how I think its going to go.

Belter is going to fly out and have them running along but Tawny Pete is definitely not going to let him have it all his own way. Has run some very quick times down in Bunbury, displaying his high cruising speed when allowed to just sit out in front in clear air and roll, culminating in a big city win over 1200m when defeating Miss Frost with 5 extra kgs. 1000m may be a bit short for him given he is quite one-paced but give him more of a chance than his current price at $16.00 available (Into $10.00 since the time of writing), given he goes very well fresh. Money Matters likely finds the fence on Belter’s back and returned to form last start with a nice win getting over Highland Beat late but I just feel it is time he gets out over further and am keen to take on despite his obvious class, while Vital Silver gets the 1-1 and although he has to lug 62kgs, is a genuine G1 horse. I’m happy to oppose 1st up with that big weight given they will likely be going along at a fairly hot tempo, the 1000m gives me the vibe it also may be too sharp for him and is far better suited for the run, up in trip at 1200m.

The horse that interests me the most is Jericho Missile, who from the gate should be able to find himself 3 pairs back with cover peeling into it on the turn. Has put in some big runs this prep without luck and when not fancied by the market, was very unlucky not to get Floyd over this track/trip when held up badly at the 200m and not able to work clear until it was too late. Was unlucky again behind Cliffs Of Comfort next time around over 1200m (not his trip I don’t think) and last start behind Money Matters had to be taken inwards when he just looked to be hitting top gear, with a margin that to me appeared unflattering. Should be able to just stoke the pipe off a hot speed and peel into it 2-3 wide with cover and get last crack at them. A fast run 1000m is his go. At the current quote, more than happy to have something on.

2 Units WIN

Race 7 – 3:50PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1400m)

4. War God – 8. Moschard – 6. Regal Counsel – 12. Zero Demerits

War God:

Overs for mine at the current price the vet War God. Brings the superior form lines into the race with a win last time around this track/trip over horses that were really up and about at the time in Serenity Bay and Position of Power, when able to stalk the speed behind Snowchino and was very brave late in staving those two gallopers off late. Same grade here, but in my opinion this is a weaker race, and gets a beautiful map to sit in the 1-1 behind the leaders that will set a genuine tmepo. Back on-top of the ground here is no issue, I actually think he goes better on a dry track, and at over $3.00 the place, won’t find many better each way bets on the card.

0.5 Units WIN/1.5 Units PLACE

Race 8 – 4:25PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1200m)

3. Eeyore Wayz – 12. Denim Pack – 5. Lucky Linda Lulu – 6. Grand Design

Race 9 – 5:00PM SEACORP HANDICAP (2000m)

1. Throwdown – 6. Diplomat Express – 2. Uncle Lino – 3. Freedom By Choice

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Staking Plan

Race 1 Yamatai 1 Unit WIN

Race 3 Brother Paddy 0.25 Units WIN/0.75 Units PLACE

Race 6 Jericho Missile 2 Units WIN

Race 7 War God 0.5 Units WIN/1.5 Units PLACE

6 Units Staked.

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