Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan - Saturday 31st October | The Sporting Base
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Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 31st October

October 31, 2020

By Rylie Morgan
Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 31st October

Big, bumper card means a similarly sized preview here for the best meeting I think we’ve seen at Ascot in a while. The rail goes into the true position for the first time all season and although I am anticipating for the track to play relatively fair as a result, the SWesterlys forecast means that leaders on the day could feel the pinch late. Track will be in the Good range once again.
  • Our WA Tipping Results Results: +23.63 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 2 – 1:15PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 2 (1200m)
6. Morgs Freeman – 1. Lacevinsky – 6. Time To Sizzle – 5. Pink N Gray
Morgs Freeman
 
Doesn’t draw ideally in the widest alley but if they can run on it isn’t the worst draw for a horse with his racing pattern. Really liked the first up effort, may say 10th of 16 but was slow away and never a chance after that, once he straightened, he balanced up and ran on strongly through the line really well. Can be hitting the line hard here from off the pace in a race with an abundance of speed on. In-form jock engaged and can run a big race here at a nice price, each way.
 
0.5 Units EACH WAY
Race 3 – 2:02PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1800m)
5. Truly Great – 4. Red Hot Tip – 2. Kelly’s Callisto – 12. Summer’s Skye
Race 4 – 2:37PM ALL FLAGS SIGNS AND BANNERS HANDICAP (1600m)
4. Heaven’s Gift – 7. Notorious One – 8. Rogues Point – 2. Midnight Blue
Really want to be with Heaven’s Gift here, as I’d black-booked her off her 1st up run behind Special Choice over an unsuitable 1400m. On a day where it was relatively difficult to make up significant ground from back in the field, she was a tad slow away and dragged back to last on the fence from the wide draw. Once they straightened for home she only got off heels after being cluttered up with 200m to go from which she savaged the line, especially past the post when Noske had to work to pull her up. The extra distance up to the mile is a positive but I still feel it is shorter than her best distance but from gate 5 she can sit closer and she is just going to run super, just a tad under my price currently at the $3.80.
 
Midnight Blue is interesting placement here, you’d think wants further after being 1st up at the mile and running a big race that was well above market expectations when just missing. Down in grade here and will drop out to the tail in a race where there isn’t a whole heap of tactical speed engaged. Can win if they go genuinely out in front and they’re running on but don’t think the mile is his peak distance nor Ramoly his jockey.
 
Notorious One is extremely talented and can definitely win but just lays in so badly in his races so the draw here actually might end up being a positive for him as he more than likely sits 3 back the fence. If Moses can part the seas for McGruddy (like this booking too) and the rail opens up, it might help to keep him in a straight line when he unleashes his sprint and from there, could be game over.
Race 5 – 3:15PM SEACORP HANDICAP (1000m)

2. River Beau – 9. Chesten Flyer – 5. Tommy Blue – 7. Miss Frost

River Beau

Thought he was huge last start in a hot form race. Slow away from a wide gate, losing a length early, before kicking up underneath to sit 3 wide no cover on a very genuine speed, didn’t fall away like he was entitled too in the straight to just miss the placings. Been back to the trials since and went like a rocket over the 950m well held, he’s flying! Draws much more economically in 6 to just sit off what looks like a very hot speed with some cover. Jumped much better in the trial with the application of the barrier blanket and think he’s going to be very hard to beat personally. The fish is the worry (?)

1.2 Units WIN

Chesten Flyer

Massive (and surprisingly so) 1st up in hot race behind Chantorque. Positioned up 3 back the fence, didn’t even get a look at them until there was 100m to go where he absolutely flew to the line between horses to miss under half a length. He was seriously unlucky. Has a superb 2nd up record, and although Lucy going on somewhat worries me from 7, if she can just sit her back with cover off a hot speed, he is right in the game at a big price that seems to have overlooked her 1st up run potentially due to his moderate record. All signs point towards him having come back in big form, massive chance. Overs.

0.8 Units WIN

Tommy Blue is now a 4 year old resuming for an in-form stable here with some nice 3yo form where he ran some really nice races behind Cliffs Of Comfort and Son Of A God. Lead-up trial for this was a serious piece of work in very fast time. Jock engaged is also flying, my gut feel says that the 1000m might just be a bit slick, my only query
 
Miss Frost really got the race run to suit 1st up and still couldn’t get there. Sat in that 3 wide line with cover, got a lovely toe into on the corner but couldn’t get there which is becoming a coming occurrence of late (flashing late for 2nd/3rd). Will get a similar set-up here but not sure I want to dive in? The speed on will suit. Against as I liked other runs in that form race better than hers.
Race 6 – 3:50PM QUAYCLEAN HANDICAP (1200m)

4. Niccovi – 10. Comes A Time – 13. Solid Azza – 1. Dig Deep

Niccovi
 
Superb return in what I think is going to be a seriously hot form race behind Elite Street. They absolutely scorched the turf and to put in that kind of performance 1st up off a long spell speaks volumes of the talent she has. Is much more suited by the 1200m here I feel despite what her record at the trip may say (been running in much stronger 1200m contests than this) and finds a much weaker race. Should just camp off them and be the one chiming in at the business end. I think the winner and wins well, Parnham in good form too so not a bad substitute for the Pontiff taking a holiday. Best betting proposition of the day for mine.
 
3 Units WIN
 
Comes A Time is on the quick back-up off an impressive 1st up win when plunged in the betting when too good for a very solid 60+. Rises in grade here so gets in with the light 54.5kgs yet this field is by no means deeper than the one he faced last week bar the on-topper. Has come back in very good order. Should get a plum spot in running, Lucy on Pontiff off my worry? Should be running the quinella if he handles the quick back.
Solid Azza will be a different horse with 54kgs and clear air here to what he delivered in that very disappointing 1st up effort, just watching for now but flashing light run wouldn’t surprise.
Race 7 – 4:25PM TABTOUCH – PRINCE OF WALES STAKES (1000m)

5. Stageman – 6. Mervyn – 10. Flower Of War – 11. Essential Spice

Stageman
 
A tad unlucky in the Crawford I thought. Was a bit awkward out of the gates and got caught on the inside of runners, got the split and just missed the diving Indian Pacific who will be a live chance in the Winterbottom. Big run on a day where making up ground from well back wasn’t the easiest of tasks. Gets a similar set-up here without that runner, will launch late off the genuine speed Mervyn will set, feel the winner comes from one of the two and he will be the one to get to him late if anything does. Parnham on a positive. 1.5kg weight swing on Mervyn could be telling.
 
2.5 Units WIN
Mervyn
 
Gave a big performance last start when not fancied by the market. Set a seriously hot speed in the lead and gave an almighty kick and to my eye looked home. Will do the same here and will get it all his own way again. Will look the winner yet again 100m out but the last 50m you will have your heart in your mouth, should give an almighty sight. Continues to just do his thing and want to be saving. Extra weight no issue, always been a genuine weight-carrier.
 
1 Unit WIN
 
Valour Road was absolutely hammered in the betting when starting favourite 1st up in the Crawford. Just got run off his legs there with the hot speed, got in a nice spot but was the first horse off the bit well before the turn and actually finished off okay considering I thought he was going to drop right out. Azzopardi on, Parnham off (for the favourite) says a bit, and they clearly intend to be aggressive here with him from the outside stall with Chloe going on, can’tt have off the last start effort and the jockey change.
Race 8 – 5:00PM CARBINE CLUB OF WA HANDICAP (1400m)
9. Inspirational Girl – 4. Red Can Man – 3. Cup Night – 5. Uni Time
No confirmed play for me in the feature, epic race, but here’s my thoughts
 
Inspirational Girl is all class. Absolutely loves this distance and deserves her crack at Group level after Bob has enjoyed filling his boots using her as the benchmark bully of late, with all indications point to her measuring up extremely well here. Gets in incredibly well at the weights with the 54kgs, Parnham doesn’t have to drop her out from 2 and can position her up handy with the lack of speed engaged. I have her on-top and think she is going to be too good for them on her way to a Railway Stakes (which she currently sits atop of markets for). The price is the only thing that deters me from launching in as she is a bit short at the current quote. Has a bit more to play for here than the other two chances.
 
Cup Night’s 2 runs back this prep have been great but certain things just haven’t fallen his way. Jagged back from the wide draw last start in the Northerly in a hugely strung out field, had to endure an incredibly long run from 600m out to get around the plodding Kay Cee (who would’ve thought, crunched in betting late and first horse beaten) and just understandably peaked a little on his run late, still only 1L off the winner who had a much easier time of things in transit when winning at cricket score odds. Will be interesting to see where Carbery lands him from gate 5, not sure he will want to drop out to last again and may sit handier? Going really well, finds a tough to split 3 horse race, definitely can win.
 
Red Can Man gets a 1kg swing on Cup Night here and finally draws an alley for the first time this prep. Gets a map where he could potentially dictate this field out in front on his ear if he chooses to. He was ridden super aggressive from the wide draw in the Northerly, was posted very wide and had to work very hard early doors, only slotting in behind the leader after rounding the first turn 300m in on what was a very hot early speed. Gets a much more ideal set-up here, 3rd up, rock hard fit now, has to be ready.
Race 9 – 5:35PM BYRON BAY PREMIUM LAGER HANDICAP (1400m)

11. She’s Alight – 12. Karijini Aurora – 14. The Fugazi – 6. True Attraction

She’s Alight
 
Winner’s just win don’t they? 1st up run signals she has carried through her form from last prep and come back in very good knick. Jumped well, was snagged back by No Neck, who positioned her up 4 back the fence in an impossible winning position. Was held up for a crack at them until she got a split at the 150m after being completely squeezed passing the 225m, would of finished much closer. I think Carbery can be aggressive early here and land her in the front 4 with not a whole lot of speed engaged here, and if he does so, I see her being right in the thick of it at the finish at a track/trip she absolutely loves. Will have taken plenty of improvement from that 1st up run and is over the odds at the current price.
 
0.8 Units WIN
 
Karijini Aurora
 
I feel the forgotten horse that I personally have plenty of time for, finished on the heels of G1 winner Kay Cee last prep over this trip on multiple occasions which only a quality horse can do. The trial was just sensational under a nice hold in what was easily the fastest 950m trial of the morning. Will run a big race 1st up and a huge chance of winning at a nice price.
 
0.5 Units WIN
 
Spillinova is going really well and gets another map where he should lead easily. Only beaten 1.5L by Inspirational Girl who goes around short-priced favourite in the Asian Beau. Could also run very well without surprising but feel like it is going to be a day where conditions suit those off-speed and those on might feel the pinch late.
True Attraction was a massive effort 1st up to run 2nd to a very race-fit Inspirational Girl off over a year away from racing. Draws awkwardly here in 14 and more than likely drops out to last and has to circle this field to win but may be brilliant enough to do so. Have to take on as a result of this map. Wary of 2nd up blues after being out for over a year also.
The Fugazi is 1st up here with a great 1st up record to boot. Still only very lightly raced but funnily enough his last 2 wins have come when he’s jumped from barrier 1 (which he also gets here). Lead-up trial was nice enough but doesn’t jump off the page to back him here, wouldn’t surprise if goes very well given some of the figures he ran last time we saw him at the races but letting through to the keeper for now. Could be on an upward spiral.
Staking Plan

Race 2 Morgs Freeman 0.5 Units EACH WAY

Race 5 River Beau 1.2 Units WIN/Chesten Flyer 0.8 Units WIN

Race 6 Niccovi 3 Units WIN

Race 7 Stageman 2.5 Units WIN/Mervyn 1 Unit WIN

Race 9 She’s Alight 0.8 Units WIN/Karijini Aurora 0.5 Units WIN

10.8 Units Staked

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