Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Saturday 17th October

What a cracking card here, but a tough one at that from a betting perspective. Spring has arrived thank god. Track will be a good 4, the rail goes out 5m, the weather is sunny and 27 and all the best horses are back at the track. Unreal time of year.

• Our WA Tipping Results Results: +16.78 Units (since 01/07/2020)

Race 1 – 12:37PM OKTOBERFEST HANDICAP (2200m)

4. Aragain – 2. Without Reason – 5. So Schmick – 1. Bollinger Boy

Race 2 – 1:19PM WESTSPEED PLATINUM SERIES HEAT 1 (1200m)

2. Rewrite The Stars – 7. Native Chimes – 1. I’m Pretty – 5. Pink N Gray

Race 3 – 1:55PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1200m)

9. Friday Knight – 6. Secret Plan – 1. Sassy Trader – 3. Our Danni

Friday Knight

Once this bloke puts it all together, I think he’s gonna be something special. Just doesn’t fully understand the caper he’s in yet. Pulled his head off last start behind Gemma’s Son in the run, was the first off the bridle, held up for a run at the 300 and the 100 and still ran home in a 32.87 L600 and the fastest L200 of the entire meeting. Gate 1 for him is arguably worse than gate 11, as it means he’s likely inside horses again and 3, maybe even 4 horses back the fence. Given his potential, and that I’ve priced him on what I think he can get to, if Noske can bullock him into the clear up to a much more suitable 1200m, he’s gonna be super hard to hold it. When, or even if, he gets into the clear is another question, but wouldn’t want to be with anyone else. Could be a star.

1 Unit WIN

Big respect to Secret Plan, who’s debut caught everyone’s attention after a big betting plonk landed, rounding them up over the 1000 from last which is very hard to do on a soft deck at Belmont. Can’t question the nature of the win but can question the strength of what he beat, can he round up a much, much stronger field from last again (where he likely settles)? The rise to 1200m certainly helps.

First Law trialled very nicely, as did Sassy Trader who should lead here, against some real talented, speedy types in Indian Pacific and Charleton Eddie and was quite soft in doing so given he wasn’t far off them. Can run a race 1st up, just maps really poorly.

[adrotate banner=”149″]

Race 4 – 2:42PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1600m)

1. Kelly’s Callisto – 8. Notorious One – 2. Deception Game – 4. British Bessy

Kelly’s Callisto

Won’t get a much more friendly set-up here will Kelly’s Callisto. Was really brave in the Vase at Northam over this trip last time around when leading and really kicking for home on the turn but was just grabbed by Deception Game in the last few strides who got the most perfect suck run. There is absolutely no speed engaged here whatsoever, and Parnham should be able to waltz her over to the fence and lead this on his ear. 3rd up, much fitter for the last run now, in-form senior jockey on in Chris Parnham, if he can get away with some cheap sectionals and stack them up on the turn, he’s gonna be really hard, even for a talented type like Notorious One, to run down.

1.5 Units WIN

Race 5 – 3:18PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1400m)

10. Indigo Blue – 9. Bolshoi Gal – 1. Special Choice – 11. Precautionary

Race 6 – 3:55PM CROWN TOWERS HANDICAP (1000m)

5. Niccovi – 9. Elite Street – 2. Condor Heroes – 1. Chix Pic

Race 7 – 4:30PM FURPHY-R.S. CRAWFORD STAKES (1000m)

9. Laverrod – 5. Stageman – 10. Indian Pacific – 2. Valour Road

Laverrod

Going to have something on Laverrod here who is just bombproof as a horse in what is a seriously hot contest. Smashed the clock 1st up last prep carrying 60kgs when winning by 3.5L. With the racing he’s done since, he’s become a better horse than that day and has had a nice 4 month freshen since he was last at the track. Had a nice tick over 950m trial, which he won in the fastest of the 950m trials of that morning considerably, and although entitled to, loved how he powered, not just through, but past the line, no neck had a tough time pulling him up! Maps beautifully here from 2, should find the back of Mervyn who no doubt crosses over to the rail, gets in with a nice easy 55kgs and although 1000m looks to be short of his best distance, at the current price I’m going to have something on.

1 Unit WIN

Race 8 – 5:05PM CROWN PERTH-NORTHERLY STAKES (1400m)

6. Massimo – 9. Cup Night – 4. Kay Cee – 16. Great Shot

Race 9 – 5:40PM SEACORP HANDICAP (1400m)

8. Bad Wolf – 2. Moschard – 9. Tollman – 3. Position Of Power

Bad Wolf

Going to have something small each-way on Bad Wolf in the last to round out the day who I think is flying. Easily accounted for Ocean’s Fifteen 2 starts back in a return to form when that runner was plunged into unbackable territory, before last weekend you could barely even say he went around over the 1200m, when held up for practically the entire straight when absolutely bolting for a run in a seriously ugly watch my lord. Ocean’s Fifteen franked that prior form by running 3rd in that same race in what was much nicer viewing. This isn’t exactly a super strong 72+, and with not an abundance of speed engaged here, a positive Kennedy should be able to land him in the first four here and on the quick-back up, can run a big race at a price to blast out.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

[adrotate banner=”146″]

Staking Plan

Race 3 Friday Knight 1 Unit WIN

Race 4 Kelly’s Callisto 1.5 Units WIN

Race 7 Laverrod 1 Unit WIN

Race 9 Bad Wolf 0.5 Units EACH WAY

4.5 Units Staked.

• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport