Chili Is Hot
March 31, 2026, Tuesday
Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Boxing Day 26th December
December 25, 2020
By Rylie Morgan
A more leisurely 34 degrees on Boxing Day for this week’s meeting at Ascot. The rail goes to the 9m position which has only been seen thus far this season on that apocalyptic day we had. The winds look like genuine south westerly’s which generally make it more favourable to sit on or just in behind the speed, particularly early in the day (shock).
- WA Service Results: -0.02 Units (Since 01/07/2020)
- VIC Service Results: +22.39 Units (Since 20/06/2020)
- Best Bets Results: +24.6 Units (Since 25/07/2020)
- Essential Punters Results: +36 Units (Since 27/10/20)
- The Plunge’s Black Book: NEW!
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Race 1 – 12:34PM IRON JACK MAIDEN (1200m)
9. Silent Act – 5. Warlago – 1. Prized Nemesis – 2. Drama Free
Race 2 – 1:14PM CROWN PERTH PLATE (1400m)
2. Chili Is Hot – 3. La Farola – 10. Hot Mix – 6. Ghost Who Walks
Marked this filly as one of my horses to follow after her 1st up effort behind Toscana and Sheza Chalmer where she really hit the line well to finish on the heels of those runners after not beginning all that well and was probably a bit stiff late when squeezed between horses to not have finished even closer. That’s pretty good form, and think the rise to 1400m 2nd up profiles really nicely for a filly that undoubtedly has a bit of talent. There’s not an abundance of early speed around here but there is enough to make the map for her somewhat sticky, and she more than likely, given that she also isn’t the fastest horse away, lands in the second half of the field which early in the day at Ascot is not the ideal spot to be. However, if it isn’t impossible to be making ground early, I think she is going to well and truly take it up to the two more fancied runners in the race here. On-top for me at the prices here and obliged to have a bet.
1 Unit WIN
Despite probably at the prices being more inclined to play around her, I believe Hot Mix could be very, very good. The debut win showed she was smart with 2nd from that race Bourbon Beau well and truly franking that form since, before that arrogant midweek win where she was essentially effortless in reeling them in and careering away late. She will lap up 1400m but I’m honestly not sure if she really beat anything at all in that midweek despite it being so visually impressive? Potentially could even lead here or breeze outside Samsurian if The Spruiker isn’t clean away. All being said, this is a considerable step-up in grade but she’s just one of those horses that you come across that you think has shown early signs that she could be really good moving forward as even though their might not have been much depth, you have to be pretty smart to put away a field like she did. Not inclined to get involved at the price as it is much under mine, will have admirers.
La Farola I have always had an opinion of this horse dating back to her debut prep. Raced 1st up against the older horses and was really good when 2nd behind a progressive horse in Sweet Strawberry, and that form looks really good now with Our Danni, who was 2.6L off her, bolting in at the midweeks since. Maps beautifully to maybe even lead? Or at worst box seat here as she has shown previously she has early tactical speed, 1400m 2nd up, better betting proposition at the price than Hot Mix. Pike going on a big tick but interestingly Parnham hops off for the favourite, something to think about.
Race 3 – 1:54PM WESTSPEED PLATINUM TABTOUCH BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1400m)
7. Scooter’s Machine – 5. Firesale – 2. Wine Night – 8. Megadon
Race 4 – 2:34PM HAPPY BIRTHDAY TONI LALICH HANDICAP (1200m)
8. Son Of A God – 5. Ziebell – 2. Don’t Fuss – 7. Diablerie
Son Of A God
Gee they don’t trial much better do they? Pricked the ears up after being headed in a hot trial by very fast horse Misty Metal and went straight back past under wraps to win by almost 2L extending on the line. Has built a pretty impressive record early doors, and last start finished less than 2L 3rd behind Windstorm and Massimo, far and above the best form being brought into this race. Has the early speed to just grab the back of Ziebell in the run, who I really don’t think will run out 1200m strongly, and with the bottom weight just looks so well placed here at a track he hasn’t been beaten at thus far in his career. $2.20 is as skinny as I can have him (congrats if you saw any of the $3.50 that went up this morning) but if he starts to get back towards $2.50/$2.60 for whatever reason, could be time to back up the truck.
4 Units WIN
Ziebell only other winning chance, horse flying, 1200m big query but in such good form and with this really nice use of the claim, every conceivable to do so. Rolls along up top, gives a massive kick as they turn for home. Foolproof.
Race 5 – 3:14PM HAPPY BIRTHDAY MATT LEAHY & BLAKE BROADHURST HANDICAP (1600m)
6. Crystal Valley – 4. Mr Kunafa – 2. Kelly’s Callisto – 1. Friaresque
Kelly’s Callisto gets the softest map he could have asked for rolling along out in front for Chris Parnham being the only leader in the field. $3.00 asking price is just too short in a field where I think a number of horses engaged are going really well. He ran them along at a very decent gallop last start and was just run down late by Phoneme. If they really give it to him cheaply and Parnham presses go early and catches the rest of them napping he could be just too hard to run down.
Really wanted to follow up on Crystal Valley next start who is flying and ran the race fastest L400/200 in that same Phoneme race but would’ve liked to have seen them step up in trip to something further, staying at the mile with a map where he likely lands last deters me a fraction.
If Mr Kunafa can jump with them this time around and land somewhere near the back of Kelly’s Callisto or 3 back the fence then he is going to be much improved and definitely can win a race like this. Big if though given the way he has been starting of late.
Friaresque also going very nicely and gets Pike back in the saddle, extremely open race this one.
Race 6 – 3:50PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1500m)
4. Beret – 5. No Surrender – 2. Roman Flirt – 3. Tiff Has Spoken
Race 7 – 4:20PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1200m)
10. Sweet Strawberry – 2. Lipstick Flickers – 9. Sassy Trader – 3. Bee Quick
Race 8 – 4:55PM A.T.A. STAKES (2200m)
2. Neufbosc – 6. Money Maher – 9. Utgard Loki – 5. Juicing Carrots
Race 9 – 5:30PM WESTERN RACEPIX HANDICAP (1000m)
10. Mood Swings – 9. Forest War – 1. Mum’s My Hero – 6. Leica Jaguar
Mood Swings
Resumes here as a 4yo off the back off a pretty hot trial behind Lipstick Flickers who could potentially frank that trial form earlier in the day here. Has really nice form behind him as a 3yo, 2nd behind Miss frost, 3rd behind Indian Pacific and Windstorm before knocking off Bright Diamond and Boomtastic. That’s outstanding form for a race of this nature where he gets in on the minimum and, with his superb early gate speed, maps to land up front or even in the 1-1. The deciding factor for me ultimately is his map advantage in comparison to his key dangers I feel in Forest War, who from barrier 12 likely gets back to last or at least near last, and Leica Jaguar who is stepping up in grade and will no doubt get back too with the way he has been finishing off lately. They will be spotting him lengths on the turn over the short course and if sharp fresh they’re really gonna struggle to reel him in. Won fresh last prep, and pretty keen on his chances resuming to send the day out on a winning note.
2 Units WIN
Staking Plan
Race 2 Chili Is Hot 1 Unit WIN
Race 4 Son Of A God 4 Units WIN
Race 9 Mood Swings 2 Units WIN
7 Units Staked.
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