Ascot/Bunbury Tip Sheet & Staking Plan - Tuesday 3rd November | The Sporting Base
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Ascot/Bunbury Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Tuesday 3rd November

November 3, 2020

By Rylie Morgan
Ascot/Bunbury Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Tuesday 3rd November

Cup day, how good. Been plenty of rain around in the past couple of days which leaves us on a soft 7 that should get upgraded to a soft 6 as the day goes on at Ascot with the rail out the 14m which history says is usually a day for those running on down the middle although not expecting too big a bias especially early in the day before the rail chops out. Not much breeze around and looks quite still.

Bunbury is in similar knick, a soft 5 and the rail in the true for the 1st meeting of the season.

  • Our WA Tipping Results Results: +20.83 Units (since 01/07/2020)
Race 1 – 11:33PM RUN AND EAT A KEBAB HANDICAP (1000m)
1. Acromantula – 5. All Metal – 3. Fish Hook – 4. Giancana
Acromantula ($2.20) has really impressed me at the trials with some really slick pieces of work and despite carrying the top weight here on debut against some handy types (not sure why that is?) should be winning. Should jump to the top here with his early speed and although history says with the rail at 14m they will be running on down the middle, the rail shouldn’t be too much of an issue especially considering its the first race and there appears to be very little breeze in play. Just a bit skinny at the $2.20 thereabouts price to be really keen to get involved.
Race 2 – 12:44PM AMELIA PARK MAIDEN (1200m)
9. Fashion Queen – 10. Treasured Prize – 7. Jedi Mind – 3. Town Hall
Again, really liked the most recent trial of cerise and white debutant Fashion Queen ($3.20) when picking up really nicely from midfield and putting them away. Could be too good for these but looks a messy sort of maiden that I’m not really that keen to get involved in. Parnham taking this ride on her over the other debuting cerise and white filly says that she’s on early instinct the better of the two.
Race 3 – 1:28PM MRS MAC’S MAIDEN (1200m)
8. Blazing Passion – 1. At War – 10. Testing Love – 4. No Surrender

Blazing Passion looks big overs here at the $34 that went up. Debut run was big behind Dark City at Northam, when held up horribly in the straight before really motoring late through the line, with Kick A Goal Son since coming out and bolting in from that race. Last start finished a way off Fish Hook on a day where it was dominated by those on speed and on the inside pad, you couldn’t make any ground up. This isn’t the strongest of maidens and from barrier 3 should get a lovely run just off the speed. Definitely worth a spec at a massive price.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

Race 4 – 2:02PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1800m)

7. Ruby Jean – 6. Lord Lonsdale – 5. Hip Wiggle – 4. Pasaran

Pretty keen that Ruby Jean ($5.00) runs a big race here out to the 1800m. Last start just got a bit far out of the ground over the mile from the wide draw but really picked up late and hit the line hard off what was a slow tempo. The form out of that race has stood up thus far, with Pretty Friar coming out and winning last Thursday at Northam. Looks like she’ll eat up the extra distance here and Pateman retains the ride here over another runner in the market Pasaran. Should be able to just park-up midfield with cover here and conditions look to be favouring those who can come down the middle with a big run late.

1 UNIT WIN

Lord Lonsdale scratched from Saturday for this and even from the draw looks the only real aggressive early speed engaged here. Should take it up and dictate the tempo. The jump from maiden win at the 1400m straight to the 1800m looks a slight query but gives a vibe she could be built in the same vein as Lonsdale Lady and Cockney Crew as that sort of jump and run at high, sustained cruising speed sort of horse. Prefer Ruby Jean here, but looks a good quinella bet.

Race 5 – 2:39PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1500m)

4. Beffunjar – 9. Miss Zedel – 5. Igarashi – 3. Sakarya

Race 6 – 3:15PM SEPPELT WINES HANDICAP (1100m)

2. Beau Zoom – 4. Old Mick – 1. Run D’Affaire Run – 5. Congreve Rocket

Race 7 – 3:53PM DEVIL’S LAIR HANDICAP (1400m)
2. Brave Dream – 9. Holyoake – 3. Casa Rosada – 1. Universal Angel
 
Race 8 – 4:30PM SALINGER HANDICAP (1400m)

9. Peppijack – 3. Tonkatuff – 4. Altani – 7. Caerhelan

Race 9 – 5:10PM TABTOUCH – BURGESS QUEEN STAKES (1400m)

13. Blow Me Out – 3. Queen Brown – 10. Solaia – 5. Snickerdoodledandy

Really hot little race for the 3yos this that is really tough from a betting perspective with most of these runners in the market coming in with the same form references.
Magical Dream is a deserving favourite but more than likely drops back to last and is going to have to round them all up again this time, which she had no trouble doing last time out and the 1400m profiles like it will only sort her better but at the price in a race of this strength I just simply can’t have.
Queen Brown was simply luckless last start in the Belgravia when plunged in the betting and looked to be travelling on the turn before getting strung up between horses and having to duck back to the inside off heels at the 200m. Just wasn’t offered the clear air others were afforded at a crucial stage. Parnham does hop off for the stable mate but I’m going to forgive that last run, has a superb rating win over the 1400m from last prep and looks a little bit of overs at the current $12.00 quote.
Kissonallforcheeks was a dominant winner in a weaker race than the Belgravia 1st up this prep and possesses tactical early speed which there isn’t an abundance of in this race so although drawn wide should be able to find a nice spot near the top if she jumps with them. Just not sure of the strength of that form but the win was very impressive, no value at the price at all.
Snickerdoodledandy hard run to miss in the Belgravia and with better luck maybe should have even won? Clearly come back in fine form, although not sure where too from barrier 4 here in a race that lacks any real speed. Map that spells traffic to me and with the price gone, not keen to get involved although if offered the splits she should be having her say late.
Solaia we were with last time when after being the subject of an alarming drift pre-race, won like an even money pop when offered a peach of a ride by McNaught. Was able to get her across and in that 3 wide line with cover just behind the speed from barrier 12 before putting them away in a few strides in a really explosive win. Was very soft on her late and the rise to 1400m looks to suit down to the ground. Can hopefully sit midfield with cover here from the draw 2-3 out, 2 back and should go very close I feel. Lucy has found some form too with 3 on Saturday.
Blow Me Out the other runner that interests me here. The turn of foot she displayed 1st up off what was a slow speed was ridiculous. Was still 5-6L off them on the turn and albeit the weaker opposition, still streeted them by 3. The form out of that race hasn’t proven to be useless either, with Alpha and Omega just being nosed by a smart one midweek, Doowahdiddy also running 2nd at that same meet and Said No One Ever running 2nd to the very talented Notorious One in Saturday grade. Was beaten last prep twice by Snickerdoodledandy but had genuine excuses on both occasions and has come back a much better horse this time around off a 4 month freshen. Kyra is no slouch with NcNaught riding the favourite and her winning mount in the Belgravia, and think she can run a huge race here at big odds.
No confirmed play for me, but at the current prices, Queen Brown, Solaia and Blow Me Out the 3 I’d be happy to play around with.
Race 10 – 5:40PM JAMES SQUIRE HANDICAP (1000m)

5. Oristano – 2. Shackleton – 1. Double Jeopardy – 6. Cooking With Gas

 

BUNBURY

Race 5
Paeroa Lad
Never thought I’d ever tip a Bairstow runner but really like the set-up for Paeroa Lad here. Was far from disgraced at Ascot last start behind Beau Zoom when offered no favours sitting up on a very hot speed and grinding away nicely in the straight to still finish 5th in a race that rated through the roof. Finds a much weaker race here, should be able to cross to the fence from the draw and gets a 4kg claim from Galati which brings him down to a very light 54kgs. Is race fit, and looks hard to run down here over what I think is a more suitable shorter trip.
1 Unit WIN
Race 8
Home In Five
Very keen on this guy to blast out in Bunbury. Jumped a clear cut favourite in a very strong Ascot midweek CL1, got on the back of the leader in the run but was a horrible watch in the straight, when not afforded any clear air for the entirety and going to the line untested. The win on debut was brilliant and he’s a big, lump of a horse that will need some clear running room in the straight which he should be afforded just sitting in behind the speed from the draw. Have an opinion of him and think he can be too good for these. Trial on the soft was really good, no issue if the sting is out of the ground.
2 Units WIN
Staking Plan

Ascot Race 3 Blazing Passion 0.5 Units EACH WAY

Ascot Race 4 Ruby Jean 1 Unit WIN

Bunbury Race 5 Paeroa Lad 1 Unit WIN

Bunbury Race 8 Home In Five 2 Units WIN

5 Units Staked.

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