A look every NRL team’s run towards the finals

With sides having now navigated through the Origin period, the finals picture is beginning to take serious shape and there will be a tonne of jostling over the next seven weeks as different teams eye postseason berths. We will look at each team’s ladder position, for-and-against, the competition they will face for the remainder of the season, and their opponents’ average ladder position. With uncertainty still surrounding nearly every position on the ladder, here is how the run home looks for each club.

#1 Penrith Panthers | 34 pts, +308

Run Home: CRO-PAR-CBR-MEL-SOU-WAR-NQL

OALP: 6.28 (T-15th)

Penrith have all but secured their second minor premiership in three seasons after winning an absurd 16 of their opening 17 encounters. They will be the only side with the luxury of being able to rest some of their stars headed into the finals and, whilst their draw is rather unfriendly, it should not matter; they are short-priced premiership favourites for a reason.

#2 North Queensland Cowboys | 26 pts, +181

Run Home: WST-STI-CBY-SYD-WAR-SOU-PEN

OALP: 10.0 (T-4th)

The Cowboys have put together one of the most expectation-shattering seasons in recent memory and are firming as genuine title contenders with seven weeks left in the regular season. Their friendly run home coupled with a manageable casualty ward has them as primed as anyone for a top four berth. Their next five weeks are all against bottom eight sides as they eye not just a top four spot but a home qualifying final.

#3 Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 26 pts, +116

Run Home: PEN-SOU-STI-WST-MAN-CBY-NEW

OALP: 10.0 (T-4th)

A Craig Fitzgibbon-masterminded revamp has the Sharks well-entrenched in the top four picture with a friendly draw over the final seven weeks of the regular season. Three of their final four games are against current bottom four sides whilst their casualty ward is all but empty. Like North Queensland, they will be eyeing a home qualifying final. Join Our Saturday Punters Club Here

#4 Melbourne Storm | 24 pts, +177

Run Home: SOU-WAR-GCT-PEN-BRI-SYD-PAR

OALP: 7.9 (T-10th)

It has been some time since the Storm have looked this shaky; they have lost five of their past eight and are riding their first three-game losing streak in seven years. Their run home includes four current top eight teams whilst their injury list is one of the most devastating in the premiership. They will also play the lowest number of home games across the NRL over the final seven weeks with only two of their clashes at AAMI Park.

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#5 Brisbane Broncos | 24 pts, +61

Run Home: PAR-WST-SYD-NEW-MEL-PAR-STI

OALP: 9.3 (7th)

Brisbane are another side who have enjoyed a 2022 season beyond their wildest expectations and are serious top four threats with seven rounds of the season remaining. Just three of their final seven clashes are against current top eight sides, however, they will be sweating on the health of the likes of Payne Haas, Selwyn Cobbo, Te Maire Martin and Corey Jensen. They will face the sixth-place Eels twice over the next six weeks in a pair of big-time clashes.

#6 Parramatta Eels | 24 pts, +36

Run Home: BRI-PEN-MAN-SOU-CBY-BRI-MEL

OALP: 6.3 (T-14th)

With Isaiah Papali’i, Reed Mahoney, and Marata Niukore among the names departing Parramatta at season’s end, 2022 is firming as a now-or-never type of year for the blue-and-gold. Their run home is among the toughest in the premiership, however, they have displayed a knack for knocking off teams above them. They are also the only side in the NRL with five of their seven remaining clashes on their home turf. Their two biggest clashes will be against Brisbane in rounds 19 and 24.

#7 South Sydney Rabbitohs | 22 pts, +59

Run Home: MEL-CRO-WAR-PAR-PEN-NQL-SYD

OALP: 5.3 (16th)

South Sydney are sitting somewhat comfortably within the top eight, four points clear of the ninth-place Roosters, however, their run home is brutal. They will face every side currently in the top four as well as Parramatta with the Warriors and Roosters the only non-top eight sides on their draw. With Latrell Mitchell back in the fullback jumper, no side will hope to see them come September, however, getting there in one piece may prove challenging.

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#8 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 20 pts, +32

Run Home: STI-SYD-PAR-GCT-CRO-CBR-CBY

OALP: 9.7 (6th)

Many put a line through the Sea Eagles when Tom Trbojevic was ruled out for the season, however, fast-forward to the start of Round 19 and Des Hasler’s men sit two points clear of ninth spot with a friendly-ish draw ahead of them. They will face only two top eight sides for the remainder of the season and have won four of their past five. The Roosters and Raiders will be hot on their tails, however.

#9 Sydney Roosters | 18 pts, +49

Run Home: NEW-MAN-BRI-NQL-WST-MEL-SOU

OALP: 7.9 (T-10th)

The 2022 Roosters have suffered through long periods of lacklustre play interspersed with moments of brilliance and find themselves on the outside of the top eight looking in as a result. Five of their remaining seven games are against top eight sides, including major clashes against Manly in Round 20 and South Sydney in Round 25. They are another side that opponents will not look forward to facing if they can make it through to September in one piece.

#10 Canberra Raiders | 18 pts, -37

Run Home: WAR-GCT-PEN-STI-NEW-MAN-WST

OALP: 10.9 (1st)

The Raiders have what projects to be the premiership’s friendliest draw over the final seven weeks of the season and are just one game back of the Sea Eagles for eighth. They will face just two current top eight teams as well as four of the bottom five. Their Round 24 clash against Manly in Canberra firms as perhaps the most influential in their run towards the finals. After starting the season just 2-6, Ricky Stuart must be pleased with the resolve his team has displayed over the past two months.

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#11 St. George Illawarra Dragons | 18 pts, -112

Run Home: MAN-NQL-CRO-CBR-GCT-WST-BRI

OALP: 8.4 (T-8th)

Consecutive losses to the Broncos and Roosters have put the Dragons in a considerably more challenging position as they vie for their first finals berth in four years. They have been shellacked in most of their losses and looked unconvincing in many of their wins which shows in their dreadful for-and-against. Their draw may present some avenues to make strides up the ladder with clashes against the 15th-place Titans and 16th-place Wests Tigers still to come, however, they will also face four top eight sides. Four of their final seven games are at their home venues where they have lost just two matches this season. Join Our Saturday Punters Club Here

#12 Warriors | 12 pts, -175

Run Home: CBR-MEL-SOU-CBY-NQL-PEN-GCT

OALP: 7.6 (T-12th)

A finals berth is virtually out of the question for the Warriors, but they still have plenty to play for. Three of their final seven games are at Mount Smart Stadium and they will be looking forward to their first Auckland-based preseason since 2020 next year. With Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Mitchell Barnett, Marata Niukore, Dylan Walker and Luke Metcalf set to join the club next season, they will be looking to finish the year on a high and springboard into a more successful 2023.

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#13 Newcastle Knights | 12 pts, -194

Run Home: SYD-CBY-WST-BRI-CBR-GCT-CRO

OALP: 10.3 (T-2nd)

2022 has been bitterly disappointing for Newcastle who have won just three of their past 15 games and look set to miss the finals for the seventh time in nine years. Their roster looks far too good to be sitting in the bottom four, but rotten injury luck coupled with an uninspiring attack has had them reeling for much of the year. Recruits Adam Elliott and Jack Hetherington will add some mongrel to their pack next season and the lack of speculation surrounding Kalyn Ponga’s future will be welcomed but it feels like the Knights can only trot along in mediocrity for so long before something has to give.

#14 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 10 pts, -127

Run Home: GCT-NEW-NQL-WAR-PAR-CRO-MAN

OALP: 8.4 (T-8th)

Of all the bottom four teams, none should be as optimistic as Canterbury who have put a 2-11 start behind them to win two of their last four as they look to build a platform for an improved 2023. Interim coach Mick Potter has helped the Dogs improved their rudderless attack, whilst young guns Jake Averillo, Jacob Kiraz, and Aaron Schoupp are looking stronger by the week. Whilst they will miss the top eight for the sixth-straight year, new recruits Viliame Kikau, Reed Mahoney, and Ryan Sutton will hope to end that drought next season.

#15 Gold Coast Titans | 8 pts, -176

Run Home: CBY-CBR-MEL-MAN-STI-NEW-WAR

OALP: 10.3 (T-2nd)

Few teams have endured a more disappointing season than the Gold Coast who had aspirations to build on a season in which they came within inches of a qualifying final victory. Much like Newcastle, their roster looks too strong on paper to be where they are, but Justin Holbrook’s men find themselves in serious danger of taking out the third wooden spoon in club history. Their remaining draw is rather friendly with only two current top eight teams left for them to play. Join Our Saturday Punters Club Here

#16 Wests Tigers | 8 pts, -198

Run Home: NQL-BRI-NEW-CRO-SYD-STI-CBR

OALP: 7.6 (T-12th)

2022 has been a disaster for the Wests Tigers as the joint venture looks set to potentially take out the first wooden spoon in club history and extend their 11-year finals drought. The club parted ways with Michael Maguire midseason and announced they will bring back former premiership-winning coach Tim Sheens next season before favourite son Benji Marshall takes over in 2025. Isaiah Papali’i and Apisai Koroisau are both set to join the club next season to play alongside the likes of Adam Doueihi, Joe Ofahengaue, and Jackson Hastings, whilst youngsters Fonua Pole, Justin Matamua, and Stefano Utoikamanu have each shown promise.

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