2022 NRL Grand Final Preview: How the West will be won
September 28, 2022
The Penrith Panthers and Parramatta Eels will clash this Sunday night in one of the biggest events on the Australian sporting calendar with both sides eyeing Western Sydney supremacy and premiership immortality in front of a sold-out Accor Stadium.
The Panthers are looking to become just the second team of the NRL era to win back-to-back premierships whilst the Eels are aiming to win their first premiership since 1986 and break the NRL’s longest current drought.
The sides have met on three occasions this season; Parramatta won the two regular season matchups before Penrith got the job done in the qualifying final clash at BlueBet.
Parramatta’s two-point win over the Panthers in Round 9 was an historic one, snapping the Panthers 11-game win-streak spanning over two seasons and handing them their first home loss in 1,013 days.
Their 34-10 Round 20 win snapped another nine-game win-streak and saw Nathan Cleary sent from the field and subsequently suspended for five matches for a dangerous throw on Parramatta five-eighth Dylan Brown.
The Panthers eliminated the Eels in week two of the finals last year in Mackay and handed them a 27-8 qualifying final loss this year. The Eels bounced back, however, knocking off Canberra and North Queensland to qualify for their first Grand Final since 2009 and earn the opportunity to avenge their week one loss.
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Penrith overcame an early Taylan May sin bin and first half grind to defeat Parramatta rather comfortably just three weeks ago. They completed eight more sets than Parramatta and ran for 419 more metres en route to a four-tries-to-one victory. The turning point came in the 59th minute when Eels halfback Mitchell Moses exited the field with a head knock and did not return. The margin was just five when Moses left the field.
The Panthers will be without Taylan May for this one, as they were last week, with Charlie Staines set to line-up on the right wing opposite Maika Sivo. Apisai Koroisau has again been named to start at hooker with Mitch Kenny in the 14 jumper, however, the two have swapped prior to kick-off in their past two clashes. 13 of the 17 who appeared in last year’s Grand Final will run out again on Sunday with Matt Burton, Paul Momirovski, Kurt Capewell and Tyrone May all now elsewhere and Staines, Kenny, Izack Tago and Jaeman Salmon all appearing in their first decider.
Parramatta, meanwhile, make only the one change from the 17 that got the job done in last week’s preliminary final with Bryce Cartwright being replaced on the interchange by Nathan Brown who has not played first-grade since Round 17. Ryan Matterson has been named to start with Marata Niukore off the interchange, however, the two have swapped prior to kick-off for the past six weeks. Left centre Tom Opacic has been named in the 20 jumper and remains an outside chance to overcome a hamstring injury and take his spot in the run-on side. Bailey Simonsson, however, proved a capable replacement last week and has been named there once more. Simonsson and Matterson are the only players in this Eels squad to have played in a Grand Final; Simonsson came off the bench in Canberra’s 2019 Grand Final loss whilst Matterson came off the bench in the Roosters’ 2018 Grand Final win.
Penrith have won five of their past seven against Parramatta and have never faced them in a Grand Final.
Parramatta will be appearing in their 10th decider and aiming to win the fifth premiership in club history whilst Penrith will be appearing in their sixth Grand Final and are aiming to win their fourth.
There are several mouth-watering individual matchups across the park with none more influential than the halves: Cleary and Luai versus Moses and Brown.
Two of the premiership’s elite half combos, both pairings will be relied on to manage their respective sides, create point-scoring opportunities, and dominate with the boot. Cleary’s kicking game was a major factor in their qualifying final matchup as the crafty conductor forced errors and trapped the Eels in their own half time and time again. Brad Arthur will be hoping his middle forwards can improve their line-speed and kick pressure against Cleary who was afforded a tonne of freedom at the end of sets.
Brown, on the other hand, may be the key for Parramatta’s hopes. He was uncharacteristically quiet in their week one defeat but backed it up with a near-best-on-ground performance against the Raiders in which he ran for a game-high 321 metres. His combination with Shaun Lane has proven to be a points haven for the Eels in recent months and, if there are two men who can cause the Panthers headaches, it may be Brown and Lane.
The middle forward battle also firms as a delicious one; Yeo, Fisher-Harris, Leota, Sorensen and Leniu versus Paulo, Campbell-Gillard, Matterson, Niukore and Kaufusi. There is no shortage of big-game experience in either pack and they have become more than accustomed to facing each other in fiery clashes. Yeo’s work as a first-receiver drives what Penrith do with the ball whilst the platform the rest of his middle is able to construct will determine the potency of Penrith’s attack. For Parramatta, Paulo and Matterson will get their hands all over the ball whilst Campbell-Gillard, Kaufusi, and Niukore will bash and barge their way up the centre. The Eels are the premiership’s most-effective offloaders so expect their big men to intersperse their carries with some sharp ball-playing and offloading in an attempt to ruffle Penrith’s feathers and catch them unaware.
There should be few surprises as far as interchange rotation goes for both sides.
Ivan Cleary will rely on Yeo, Kikau, and Martin to go the full 80 whilst Leota and Fisher-Harris will see out the opening stages of the game before closing things out. Expect Leota to be replaced by Koroisau around the 20-minute mark, who will shift Kenny to the middle for short spell before Sorensen comes on, with Leniu then coming on for Fisher-Harris around the half-hour mark. Both starting front-rowers will be sent back into the action at around the 60-minute mark.
As for Arthur’s Eels, he will hope Mahoney, Lane, and Papali’i can go the go the full 80. Matterson will replace Niukore around the 20-minute mark and play out a majority of the game before Kaufusi replaces Paulo shortly after, who will only be afforded a short spell before replacing starting front-row partner Campbell-Gillard. The starting props will swap again at around the 50-minute mark before Niukore replaces Kaufusi. Paulo will be inserted back into proceedings around the hour-mark for Matterson or Niukore. Depending on how many interchanges he has up his sleeve, Arthur may opt to utilise several short and sharp swaps over the final 10-15. Jakob Arthur likely will not see the field unless injury forces an outside back or half to exit whilst the role Nathan Brown plays is difficult to judge but, given Arthur’s track record, he will likely only be relied on for a sputtering of minutes.
Penrith opens the game as $1.35 favourites with bookmakers expecting them to earn back-to-back premierships for the first time in club history.
Kick-off: 7:30pm Sunday at Accor Stadium, Homebush
Panthers: 1. Edwards; 2. Staines; 3. Tago; 4. Crichton; 5. To’o; 6 Luai; 7. Cleary (c); 8. Leota; 9. Koroisau; 10. Fisher-Harris; 11. Kikau; 12. Martin; 13. Yeo (c); 14. Kenny; 15. Sorensen; 16. Leniu; 17. Salmon; 18. O’Sullivan; 19. Eisenhuth; 20. Hopgood; 21. Turuva; 22. Smith
Eels: 1. Gutherson (c); 2. Sivo; 3. Penisini; 4. Simonsson; 5. Blake; 6. D Brown; 7. Moses; 8. Campbell-Gillard; 9. Mahoney; 10 Paulo (c); 11. Lane; 12. Papali’i; 13. Matterson; 14. N Brown; 15. Arthur; 16. Kaufusi; 17. Niukore; 18. Cartwright; 19. Makatoa; 20. Opacic; 21. Ogden; 22. Rodwell
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