2021 NFL Week 4 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

That is much more like it. A massive profit last Sunday with 7 point underdogs, the Chargers, coming through for our handicap and monelyine picks. We made 7.96 units of profit on Sunday alone so lets follow that up with another big one here. We have seen underdogs covering at a great rate through three weeks but I believe things will balance out a little this week.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games so make sure to check back.

Season to date

Premium picks:

• Profit/Loss: +4.11 units
• ROI: -10%
• Strike rate: 48%

Thursday free picks:

• Profit/Loss: -6.72 units
• ROI: -41%
• Strike rate: 21%

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

Those of you that read my season preview will know I was very high on the Cowboys coming into the season and they have done nothing but back that up since the season got underway. Dak Prescott looks incredible – definite MVP candidate – and the defence has found a way to turn the ball over. The Panthers have been a surprise package at 3-0 but they have not really beaten anyone significant. The Jets and Texans are two of the bottom three teams in the league, and the Saints were without half of their staff. They are a decent team but for me they are not in the Cowboys tier. This is a lower line than I believe it should be with the differences between the teams and with Dallas at home, I think their offence can show that the Panthers are not a legitimate contender and are a team that are overrated based on a favourable schedule so far.

• 2 units Cowboys -4 with TopSport 1.91 with TopSport

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Washington Football Team @ Atlanta Falcons

I keep thinking the Falcons offence will come alive but it continues to struggle. They have a lot of talent and a head coach known for his offence but things just are not clicking. They have a bad offence and one of the worst defences in the league. Washington are not a team I rate too highly but they have a good run game and they can control this game. Until the Falons show something on offence I am going to be backing against them for the forseeable future.

• 1 unit Washington -1.5 1.90 with TopSport

Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets

The Jets have been pretty terrible so far, and a lot of that can be put on Zach Wilson. The rookie quarterback has turned the ball over way too much and really struggled. But things should ease up here as they face a terrible Titans pass defence. Tennessee may well struggle as they are without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones, meaning Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Josh Reynolds, hardly household names, will be leading their receivers. Derrick Henry will still be a threat, of course, but without two of the very best in the game the Jets can focus on shutting down Henry. The Jets may well get their first win on the board and Corey Davis will certainly want to show his former team what they are missing.

• 2 units Jets +6.5 1.81 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jets moneyline 3.25 with TopSport
• 1 unit Corey Davis any time touchdown 3.25 with TopSport

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Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks defence continues to let this team down. They are woeful and just can’t seem to stop anybody and while the 49ers have some issues themselves, they are a good team overall and have an offence that should rip Seattle to shreds. These NFC West divisional games can be weird, but I can just see no way the Seahawks can win this without a weird game with lots of turnovers – something this defence rarely produces.

• 2 units 49ers -2.5 1.91 with TopSport
• 1 unit George Kittle any time touchdown 2.40 with TopSport
• 1 unit Brandon Aiyuk any time touchdown 2.84 with TopSport

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

I think this game is very tight and the line reflects that. I see these teams as fairly cautious on offence and I just do not see many points here. Both have strong defences that should match up well. So I am avoiding picking the game itself and just taking the under,

• 1 unit Ravens/Broncos under 45 1.83 with TopSport

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

The game that everyone has been looking for since Tom Brady announced he would be leaving New England. They are two teams heading in opposite directions and for me Mac Jones is not an NFL level quarterback. He just does not have the arm to get it deep and while the Bucs can be beaten with underneath passing as the Rams showed last week, the Patriots do not have the sort of players to take advantage of that like LA did. Unless the defence can pull of the game of their lives I think the Buccaneers can get ahead early and just ease away as the Patriots offensive struggles continue.

• 2 units Buccaneers -7 1.95 with TopSport

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Like the Panthers, the Raiders are a team I have really been looking forward to betting against when they come up against tough competition. For me, the Chargers are a top level team and Justin Herbert is a quarterback I would happily ride with most weeks, particularly now they have competent coaching they have been missing for some time. The Raiders are a good, but not great team and their record does not represent where they sit in my opinion.

• 2 units Chargers  -3 1.85 with TopSport

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Expert Tips

• 2 units Cowboys -4 with TopSport 1.91 with TopSport
• 1 unit Washington -1.5 1.90 with TopSport
• 2 units Jets +6.5 1.81 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jets moneyline 3.25 with TopSport
• 1 unit Corey Davis any time touchdown 3.25 with TopSport
• 2 units 49ers -2.5 1.91 with TopSport
• 1 unit George Kittle any time touchdown 2.40 with TopSport
• 1 unit Brandon Aiyuk any time touchdown 2.84 with TopSport
• 1 unit Ravens/Broncos under 45 1.83 with TopSport
• 2 units Buccaneers -7 1.95 with TopSport
• 2 units Chargers  -3 1.85 with TopSport