Wimbledon Day 6: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 3/6

A bad night last night with some bad beats but also some bad bets. Time to get back into profits tonight.

• Bets: 58
• Wins: 20
• Profit/Loss = -4.99 units
• Click Here To View Results Spreadsheet

Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexander Bublik

Two players here who are yet to drop a set in what should be a great match. While both have played tennis, the strength of Hubert’s opponents in R1 and R2 have arguably been stronger than those Bublik played, as he shut down the rising star Musetti and the American Giron who has looked good lately.

While I think Bublik is the more exciting player of the two here, Hurkacz is the more consistent one, who is able to put his head down and grind out a service game when required. He made it to R3 back in 2019 here and he will be looking to take advantage of his seed and draw tonight when he takes on Bublik. I don’t think it will be easy, but I think Hubert is the side. The overs are definitely in play as well as both are big servers and are yet to be broken at Wimbledon yet.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Hurkacz @ 1.69
• 1u Hurkacz & o39.5 total games @ 3.20
• 0.5u o1.5 tiebreaks @ 2.50

Ilya Ivashka vs Jordan Thompson

Jordan Thompson is playing some of the best tennis of his career at the moment, and the results he is getting certainly reflect this. He will be looking to take advantage of his matchup today and progress to R4 at Wimbledon for the first time in his career. Ivashaka has not been tested yet. He has played a clay court player in Munar, and the veteran Chardy. While he has looked good in both, Thompson would also beat those two players with ease.

On the other hand, Thompson has caused upsets in both R1 and R2, knocking off the World No 14 in Ruud, and the ever trusty, always solid Kei Nishikori. He has heaps of confidence in himself at the moment and will believe that he has what it takes to win his match tonight. He has the experience edge as well, as before this years edition of Wimbledon Ivashka had only played eight games on grass, whereas Thompson has played 28. Thompson also leads the H2H battle 1-0.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Thompson @ 2.30

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Matteo Berrettini vs Aljaz Bedene

Keeping this super short. Berrettini has looked good thus far without looking great. He dropped a set in R1 and dropped his serve five times in R2 against the World No 139. He still wins today, but there is value on Bedene, who has looked exceptional through two rounds, with two sets won 6-0, and only 11 games dropped in total across the two matches. These are some crazy numbers, and I think with the form he is in, he can steal a set from the Italian today. Berrettini leads the H2H 2-1, but back in 2019 when these two met in R1, Bedene was able to take a set as a 4.50 underdog.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Bedene o0.5 sets @ 1.90
• 1u Berrettini / Bedene o35.5 total games @ 1.90

Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverev

Anyone who has been following my tips knows how much I have been against Fritz and what I think of him. He is a great young player, but something has got to give and I think that happens tonight. He played well but not exceptionally well in R1, and was lucky to get out alive in R2 when he saved five break point opportunities early in the fifth set against Johnson.

Zverev will not be giving him any breathing space tonight and will be looking to get this match over quickly. He has been pretty perfect through the first two rounds, and has not spent too much time on court. Fritz did beat him in their last matchup however I am happy to forgive Zverev for that loss as it was not at a grand slam. I think he will make light work of him tonight.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Zverev -2.5 sets @ 1.95

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Read More: Wimbledon Day 4: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 1/6

Extras

These are not official plays, but a few more bets I was close to playing:

• FAA @ 1.72
• Federer -2.5 sets @ 3
• Medvedev -2.5 sets @ 2.10

Record on extra bets (untracked):

• Bets: 20
• Wins: 12

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