Wimbledon Day 1: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan | The Sporting Base
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Wimbledon Day 1: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan

June 27, 2021

Wimbledon Day 1: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan

Wimbledon starts today and there is plenty of value to find on the card. Here are 13 units of my best bets and picks for the day with my thoughts and stats.

Denis Kudla v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

ADF will be a star. He is young and talented and is the future of Spanish tennis. However, he is yet to show that he is capable of playing on the grass surface, much like many other Spanish tennis players. There is also a worry in regard to a potential back injury, which clearly bothered him forced him to retire last week at Eastbourne after one set.

Kudla is no grass expert, but it is his preferred surface, boasting a positive win rate (51.8%). He made it to the fourth round here back in 2015 and has the necessary experience and form to win this matchup, having won 9 out of his 11 matches on grass in 2021. I am also playing the overs as there I see no scenario in which this game is over in straight sets and would not be surprised to see it go the distance.

Suggested bets:
  • 2u Kudla @ 1.80
  • 1u Kudla / ADF o37.5 total games @ 1.86

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John Millman vs Roberto Bautista-Agut

Will keep this one relatively short. I think that the journeyman Millman is too short against an out of form RBA. RBA should win, and probably will as he holds a 5-0 H2H record over Millman and has been known to perform well on grass. However, both players have won a set in 4 out of these 5 past meetings. RBA will not dominate him, and this total is too low. I was also close to betting Millman to win a set at 1.66 but getting a better price on the total.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u RBA / Millman o35.5 total games @ 1.85

Jiri Vesely v Yannick Hanfmann

Not much to say here, just playing the first set total games overs as these guys are both strong servers. It will be a tight first set much like the last time they met, and on the fast grass surface I do not expect either to break.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u Vesely / Hanfmann S1 o10.5 @ 2.50
  • 1u Vesely / Hanfmann S1 o12.5 @ 3.25

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Mackenzie McDonald v Karen Khachanov

Karen cannot be trusted. He is one of the most inconsistent players on tour. McDonald is in great form at the moment and will be looking for a main draw breakthrough. In June he has 6 wins from 8 matches and is looking sharp. I sense an upset. Both players have a tendency to find themselves in five set matches as well.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u McDonald @ 2.30
  • 0.25u McDonald / Khachanov o4.5 sets @ 3.70

Riley Opelka v Dominik Koepfer

Expecting Opelka to dominate him. The conditions are perfect for the big serving American and I cannot see him losing. 63.6% win record and leads the H2H 3-2. Made a nice run here back in 2019 where he made it to the third round. This should not be close. Koepfer also very limited in professional gameplay on the grass (1 win, 3 losses).

Suggested bets:
  • 1u Opelka @ 1.64
  • 0.5u Opelka -1.5 sets @ 2.10

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Christopher O’Connell v Gael Monfils

Gael is done. He is finished. In his last outing, he lost to the World No 273 Australian Max Purcell, and I think a similar fate awaits him tonight. O’Connell is a solid player but his lack of exposure to the surface prevents this from being a two-unit play. He did look great in qualifying. Monfils has two wins in his last 15 matches and has gone home in R1 three times previously at Wimbledon. I think Chris could send him into retirement.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u O’Connell @ 1.96

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Francis Tiafoe

This is an extremely interesting matchup. Tsitsipas has had little to no preparation for Wimbledon, with the last match he played being the French Open final a month ago. In addition to that, he went out in the first round here in 2019, in a huge upset. He has not played on grass since then and holds an 8 – 7 win record on the surface. Tiafoe is a well-equipped player to cause an upset, and I think he is a bit over the odds. He is coming off a title (Nottingham Challenger) and is more than capable on grass. It should be said that Tsitsipas does lead the H2H matchup however none of those games were on grass.

Suggested bets:
  • 2u Tsitsipas / Tiafoe o33.5 @ 1.69
  • 0.25u Tiafoe @ 6.50

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Dusan Lajovic v Gilles Simon

I am going to keep this one short. Simon, much like his compatriot Monfils, is on the way out, however, he has played over 90 professional matches on grass and is coming up against an opponent who does not know how to win on the surface. Lajovic has four wins against very average players on grass, and he just has not figured it out yet. It is hard to put too much trust into Gilles who is on a bit of a losing skid at the moment however I think he can grind out a solid win here.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u Simon -3 games @ 1.91

Lloyd Harris v Richard Berankis

Harris is a great player to watch however as of late he has really looked like he is struggling on the grass. He failed miserably in straight sets against Corentin Moutet (Mallorca Open) and against Nikoloz Basilashvili (Halle Open), and in both games he was heavily favoured to win. To put it simply, he has not put together enough good performances recently to make him backable at his low price. Berankis is no superstar on grass, but he loves to cause an upset. He beat Denis Shapovalov here at Wimbledon back in 2019 and he also took the big serving Croat Marin Cilic to five sets at this event in 2015. Playing Harris seems like a trap here.

Suggested bets:
  • 1u Berankis @ 2.41
  • 1u Berankis +1.5 sets @ 1.80

Sebastian Korda v Alex De Minaur

These players are both in some form at the moment and while I understand that ADM is the favourite due to his experience at slams and on the tour, I do think he is a touch short. Korda possesses the weaponry to topple him, and I would not be surprised to see him do so, I just do not want to bet him due to ADM’s recent success at the Eastbourne Open. This will be the best game of Day 1 in my opinion, and I expect it to go extremely tight and right down to the wire. I am playing the total games over and hoping for chaos.

Suggested bets:
  • 1.5u Korda / ADM o38.5 total games @ 1.89

Staking Summary
  • 2u Kudla @ 1.90
  • 1u Kudla / ADF o37.5 total games @ 1.86
  • 1u RBA / Millman o35.5 total games @ 1.85
  • 1u Vesely / Hanfmann S1 o10.5 @ 2.50
  • 1u Vesely / Hanfmann S1 o12.5 @ 3.25
  • 1u McDonald @ 2.30
  • 0.25u McDonald / Khachanov o4.5 sets @ 3.70
  • 1u Opelka @ 1.64
  • 0.5u Opelka -1.5 sets @ 2.10
  • 1u O’Connell @ 1.96
  • 2u Tsitsipas / Tiafoe o33.5 total games @ 1.76
  • 0.25u Tiafoe @ 6.50
  • 1u Simon -3 games @ 1.91
  • 1u Berankis @ 2.41
  • 1u Berankis +1.5 sets @ 1.80
  • 1.5u Korda / ADM o38.5 total games @ 1.89
Total Units Staked = 16.5

Extras

These are not official plays, but a few more bets I was close to playing:

  • Murray @ 1.9
  • Evans / Lopez o39.5 @ 1.90
  • Shapovalov 3 – 0 @ 2.30

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