Why Novak Djokovic Should Be Favoured To Win The 2020 Australian Open

The 2020 Australian Open began play on Monday despite significant haze over Melbourne. The second seed, Novak Djokovic of Serbia, defeated Jan-Lennard Struff of Germany, 7-6, 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 in the first-round action. Remarkably Struff became the first player since 2006 take a set-off of Djokovic in a first-round match at the Australian Open. Fourteen years ago Paul Goldstein of the United States beat Djokovic 6-2, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Despite losing a set on Monday, Djokovic is the player to beat at the 2020 Australian Open. What makes Djokovic so tough is his ability to break a player’s serve after being broken himself. He is quick to go from the defensive to the offensive (even during rallies) and by being a seven-time Australian Open champion and the defending champion of the year’s first major, one would actually be a fool not to think Djokovic has what it takes to win again in the next two weeks.

One area of concern however for Djokovic could be the tough conditions in Australia at the moment. Earlier on his career, Djokovic had health problems on the court. Those subsided as he changed his diet, but he has never had to play in conditions as tough as these at a major before. By being number two in the world may help, as he will see a lot of action in the covered stadiums, but this is one thing we will need to keep an eye on.

Spain’s Rafael Nadal and Switzerland’s Roger Federer will obviously be in the mix. However Nadal continues to be a clay-court specialist at age 33 and one should realize Federer has not won a major now since winning the Australian Open two years ago. Would it be a huge surprise if either of them won? No. But Djokovic is the one with the clear cut advantage as the hardcourt suits his game.

As for the others in the field, three players have the skill set, but not the mindset currently to take the men’s singles title. I am referring to Australia’s Nick Kyrgios, Germany’s Alexander Zverev and Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas. If there is one player outside the top three that could make a serious run, it is the fourth seed, Russia’s Daniil Medvedev. In 2019, Medvedev reached the United States Open final, and won in Sofia, Cincinnati, St. Petersburg and Shanghai. One could argue that he has supplanted Andy Murray of Great Britain and Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland, as the best player in the world outside the big three.

If there is one outsider to take the title, one has to look at Matteo Berrettini of Italy. In 2019, Berrettini made the jump from 57 to eighth in the world. He reached the semifinals of the U.S. Open and had six wins over top 10 players. He is also in Roger Federer’s quarter of the draw. Federer, at age 38, is still playing tennis at a high level, but one would think it is just a matter of time before he battles Father Time.