The Metropolitan: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

The Metropolitan has some interesting form lines heading into the G1 event, and we have broken down why each runner can and can’t win, as well as their predicted finishing position below.

Not only have we broken down each runner’s chances, but we have also placed our best bet and value bet at the bottom of this article.

1. Vauban — 58.5kg — Midfield

Why he can win

World-class stayer; his peak 2400m–3200m ratings still stand up. His second-up 2000m run was solid, and he has the best established staying ceiling in the race.

Why he can’t

Carries the top weight, and his last two Australian runs lacked late acceleration compared to the local stayers. He needs the race run at a brutal tempo or rain-affected conditions to bring the field back to him.

Predicted finish: First 8

2. Arapaho — 58kg — On pace/stalk

Why he can win

Genuine stayer and Sydney Cup winner who improves as the distances rise. His recent 2000m run featured a strong sustained effort from the 600 metres to the finish. Maps ideally just behind the leaders and makes his own luck.

Why he can’t

Gives weight to several progressive horses and is less explosive late at these trips now. If they dash home off a slower midrace, his grinding style may be exposed.

Predicted finish: Top 4

3. More Felons — 55kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

His historical 2400m European figures suggest he’s capable, and the rise in distance helps. If the leaders overcook the speed, he has the stamina to run into it late.

Why he can’t

Both runs this prep have been flat, and his closing work from the 800 to the 200 metres has lacked punch. Needs a total race collapse and luck in transit.

Predicted finish: Rest

4. Changingoftheguard — 54.5kg — Leader

Why he can win

Led throughout to win the City Tatts Cup over 2400m with evenly-run sectionals. Controls the race again and is well-weighted to absorb pressure and kick.

Why he can’t

If pressured midrace by runners like Juja Kibo or Sun ’n’ Sand, he may be softened up and vulnerable late to stronger finishers.

Predicted finish: Win chance

6. Athabascan — 52kg — Midfield

Why he can win

A genuine two-mile stayer with improvement typical second and third up. The weight drop is significant, and the rise in distance suits his platform.

Why he can’t

His two performances this preparation have been well below his best, and he hasn’t shown a meaningful lift in his closing work from the 600 metres. Needs the ground softer or a gruelling stamina test to factor.

Predicted finish: First 8

7. Birdman — 51.5kg — Midfield to back

Why he can win

His most recent Group 3 win over 2000m rated highly, and he produced a strong build-up from the 600 metres through the final 200 metres when the tempo was fast. Gets in very light and is peaking third up for a top stable.

Why he can’t

Needs cover and a cart into the race at the right time. If the field compresses mid-race and they only sprint late, he may take too long to wind up.

Predicted finish: Win chance

8. Son Of Sun — 51kg — Midfield/back

Why he can win

Has an established staying base and handles all conditions. Carries no weight and will keep coming if the tempo is strong.

Why he can’t

Showed his limitations at Randwick last start and lacks the acceleration over the final 400 metres that several key dangers possess.

Predicted finish: Rest

9. Soul Of Spain — 50kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Red-hot formline winning up to 2300m, and his late work—especially over the final 600 metres—has been outstanding. Carries the minimum weight and is trained to peak at this trip.

Why he can’t

Needs tempo and clear running lanes to blend into it. A slightly awkward map could leave him spotting too much ground before the turn.

Predicted finish: Win chance

10. Etna Rosso — 50kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Strong closer who ran well last start at 2000m and is better suited stretching to 2400m and beyond. His light weight keeps him in the mix.

Why he can’t

Tends to build rather than accelerate, and will need the race run at a sustained pace from before the 800 metres to outstay the sharper finishers.

Predicted finish: First 8

11. Piggyback — 50kg — Stalker

Why she can win

Comes off a Group 3 win at 2400m and holds form deep into a preparation. Tactically versatile, rolls on speed and sustains effort.

Why she can’t

Faces more depth here, and if the leaders stack the race up from the 1000 metres she could be pocketed and outsprinted.

Predicted finish: Top 4

12. Glory Daze — 50kg — On pace

Why he can win

Consistent around the 1800–2100m range and sticks strongly when up on speed. With no weight, he can be in the race for a long time.

Why he can’t

His final 400 metres at this level may not match the stronger closers if the tempo is even.

Predicted finish: First 8

13. Royal Supremacy — 50kg — Midfield/back

Why he can win

Progressive stayer who improves as distances extend. His closing work over the final 600 metres has been solid, and he gets every chance with 50kg.

Why he can’t

Yet to beat open-class stayers and will need both luck and tempo to thread through the field late.

Predicted finish: First 8

14. Wyclif — 50kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Experienced in staying races and capable of running on if the leaders go too hard. Appreciates a long build-up from the 800 metres.

Why he can’t

Current form below his past best and needs everything to fall in his lap to feature.

Predicted finish: Rest

15. Don Diego De Vega — 50kg — Midfield

Why he can win

Listed 2350m winner two runs back and proven in softer conditions. Maps to get a trail in midfield.

Why he can’t

His closing splits say he’s honest rather than dynamic, and this is a deeper race.

Predicted finish: Rest

16. Flying Bandit — 50kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Strong grinder who can keep coming late if the race is genuinely run. The weight gives him a chance to sweep into the finish.

Why he can’t

Class ceiling becomes evident when better stayers sprint from the 600 metres. Likely to be too far back.

Predicted finish: Rest

17. Travolta — 50kg — Stalker

Why he can win

In excellent touch with a 2000m win and a 2400m placing. Can stalk the speed and use no weight to his advantage.

Why he can’t

If the leaders inject pressure from before the 800 metres, his stamina might hold but he can still be outkicked late by higher-class closers.

Predicted finish: Top 4

18. Juja Kibo — 50kg — On pace

Why he can win

Rapid improver over 2000–2400m with strong midrace pressure tolerance. Carries no weight and is tough rolling on speed.

Why he can’t

Faces higher-rating closers and could be softened by multiple pace influences. If forced to chase Changingoftheguard too early, he may be vulnerable in the last 100 metres.

Predicted finish: Top 4

19. Sun ’n’ Sand — 50kg — On pace

Why she can win

Fit mare with proven staying ability and a light weight. Can roll forward and put herself in the race.

Why she can’t

Her recent efforts over 1600–1800m have been only fair and she may be the one setting up the race for the swoopers.

Predicted finish: Rest

Best Bet: #7 Birdman — around the $6.00 mark
He’s your most balanced profile: tactical speed, strong late splits, progressive pattern, and comes off a dominant win.

Value Bet #4 Changingoftheguard — roughly $9.00
Maps perfectly on speed, tough at the trip, and his sectionals plus platform suggest he’s peaking at the right time. Overs compared to his winning chance.