The Epsom: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

The Epsom shapes as a great race, and we had our analysts look over every runner to bring you why each runner can and can’t win, as well as their predicted finish.

We have broken down each runner’s chances to tell you why we think each runner can and can’t win, as well as their predicted finishing position.

We have also placed our best bet and value bet at the bottom of the article.

1) Ceolwulf (9) — 58kg — $9.50

Why he can win

• Proven WFA star; defending champ and fourth-up to peak, profiles to “top” here.

• Rock-solid at Randwick mile: 5:2-0-1 at T/D; handles all ground.

• Sectionals/ratings this prep excellent despite brutal tempos; 3rd in the G1 (nose bleed noted but one-nostril only).

• Big synergy with Schofield (J/H 9:3-0-2), stable flying, high class figs (RTG 114).

Why he can’t

• Carries +4kg versus last year; gives weight to several improvers.

• 1-nostril bleed last start: allowed to run, but any pressure spike late is a tiny query.

• Draw 9 could mean he’s not “fence in run” and may have to absorb a fast midrace again.

Predicted Finish: Top 4

2) Pericles (5) — 57kg — $7.60

Why he can win

• Explosive first-up Tramway win (new stable) screams “back to a peak”.

• Maps handy from gate 5 and thrives on good tempo; loves Randwick; 1600m no issue (Doncaster run was huge on-pace).

• Strong 1st/2nd-up record; weight acceptable at 57.

Why he can’t

• 0/12 at G1; he’s threatened often but hasn’t landed the top shelf yet.

• If they really ramp it late, pure milers with a sharper turn may grab him.

Predicted Finish: Top 4

3) Yellow Brick (11) — 55.5kg — $53

Why he can win

• Group 1 runner-up in the Stradbroke tells you his ceiling is high.

• Best when ridden cold — barrier 11 encourages that one-run pattern; genuine pace helps him.

Why he can’t

• Spring runs below best; Sydney mile at G1 level is deeper than recent grades.

• Track stats here poor (0 from 4) and he’s been “flat-footed” when sprints go on.

Predicted Finish: Outside Top 8

4) Autumn Glow (14) — 54.5kg — $2.30

Why she can win

• Unbeaten (6/6). Two wins this prep (Toy Show, Theo Marks) and looked a weapon at 1300m.

• Weight sweet spot (54.5) against older horses; massive late figures and keeps improving.

• Wide alleys have been okay historically in this race; she can flow into it 3-wide with cover.

Why she can’t

• New PB required at a first go 1600m vs hardened WFA milers — this is the deepest test of her life.

• Barrier 14 risks a wide run if the tempo doesn’t string out; any midrace slowdown could strand her.

Predicted Finish: Win Chance

5) Pier (13) — 53.5kg — $12

Why he can win

• Theo Marks return was strong flashing home at 1300m; mile is his sweet spot (4:3-0-0).

• Big weight pull on Autumn Glow and draws right next to her to track into it.

• NZ mile form + Wayne Wilson demolition says he’s genuine class at 1600m.

Why he can’t

• Needs a clean cart into it from out wide; if he’s spotting 6–8L at the 600, he’ll need last-600 fireworks.

• Sydney G1 mild unknown versus elite locals when the screws tighten.

Predicted Finish: Top 4

6) Willydoit (2) — 53kg — $10

Why he can win

• Massive weight drop (58→53) second-up, up to a mile (arguably his best range despite Derby win).

• Draw 2 gets a dream economic map; sneaky good in Tramway with traffic and unsuitable weights.

• New Maher set-up can spike rapid 2nd-up improvement.

Why he can’t

• Still lightly exposed at this grade; needs to turn promising profile into a G1 figure now.

• If the fence is not the place to be, low draw could become a pocket.

Predicted Finish: First 8

7) Encap (6) — 52kg — $23

Why he can win

• Doncaster placing earlier this year at this T/D proves he can mix it with top milers.

• Featherweight (52) and likely fast speed suits his pattern.

Why he can’t

• Habitual backmarker with only 2 wins from 24 — needs a lot to go right.

• Late splits solid, but he often leaves himself too much to do.

Predicted Finish: First 8

8) El Castello (1) — 51kg — $21

Why he can win

• G1 Derby winner with a huge platform to improve with fitness and longer trip.

• Low weight and barrier 1 could yield the peach run.

Why he can’t

• Best work is likely beyond a mile as prep lengthens; might be one run short at 1600m G1 pace.

• Inside draw could equal traffic with his style.

Predicted Finish: First 8

9) Depth Of Character (7) — 50kg — $41

Why he can win

• Third-up peak profile and comes off a good Bill Ritchie placing; carries nothing (50kg).

• Versatile enough to hold a spot and use the light weight.

Why he can’t

• Exposed ceiling to date; nothing says “G1 winner right now”.

• Needs several to underperform and the map to pan out perfectly.

Predicted Finish: Outside Top 8

10) Swiftfalcon (4) — 50kg — $16

Why he can win

• Talent is real; gets blinkers first time and only 50kg.

• Hidden runs this prep — repeatedly held up; low draw can finally give him last-shot lanes.

Why he can’t

• Racing pattern/traffic magnet; if he’s bottled up again, race can be gone.

• G1 depth stretch; has teased rather than delivered in top grades so far.

Predicted Finish: First 8

11) Fully Lit (8) — 50kg — $41

Why he can win

• Likely leader or outside leader; can control a race when left alone (dominant Rosehill Bm78 win).

• Arrives fit and in-form, weight is a gift at 50.

Why he can’t

• Recent 1500–1600m runs suggest the mile is outer limit, especially under high pressure.

• If they swarm from the 500, he could be a sitting duck late.

Predicted Finish: Rest

12) Verona Rose (3) — 50kg — $36

Why she can win

• Lightly raced improver with a nice Tibbie closing run; soft draw (3) for the gun smother.

• Carries nothing; can sprint sharply off a cold ride.

Why she can’t

• This is a huge class rise; her formlines don’t typically feed the winner of this race.

• Untested at this furnace with elite older milers.

Predicted Finish: Rest

13) Magnatear (12) — 50kg — $71

Why he can win

• In form this prep; on-speed style + light weight occasionally pull off shocks.

• Honest competitor who makes his own luck.

Why he can’t

• First real crack at elite mile depth; Cameron 5th reads below what’s needed here.

• Gate 12 could force him to work early against faster on-pace rivals.

Predicted Finish: Outside Top 8

14) Lord Penman (10) — 50kg — $34

Why he can win

• Huge “blackbook” last start — never got out at Randwick mile and had plenty to offer.

• Waller polish + X-factor; weight pull is massive and he’s trending up fast.

Why he can’t

• Still raw at stakes level; needs to make the leap straight into a G1 furnace.

• Mid-wide draw could be awkward if he lacks early muster and ends up buried three-back the fence.

Predicted Finish: First 8

Best Bet: #4 Autumn Glow @ $2.30 — most likely winner; short but fair.

Value Bet: #2 Pericles @ $7.60 — best risk/reward among the dangers; price looks overs.