State of Origin: Which forward pack has the edge heading into Game I?

Players and coaches regularly allude to the importance of the tug-of-war in the middle third of the field and, more often than not, this rings particularly true in the Origin arena. Both the Blues and Maroons have selected star-studded packs for next Wednesday night’s blockbuster with a mixture of experience and youth. With that in mind, which forward pack has the edge heading into Game I?

New South Wales

The Blues have named Payne Haas and Junior Paulo to start in the front-row for Game I, with Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson making up the bench middle rotation. Cameron Murray and Tariq Sims will start on opposite edges, whilst Liam Martin has been named on the interchange bench and has the ability to play on an edge or in the middle. Isaah Yeo is projected to play 80 minutes at lock, a feat he completed in Game I last year and does so on a week-by-week basis for Penrith.

Queensland

The Maroons are set to start the game with Josh Papali’i and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui in the front-row, with debutant Reuben Cotter at lock. Fellow debutant Patty Carrigan and Lindsay Collins will be used to spell those three in the middle of the field, whilst Felise Kaufusi and Kurt Capewell will start on the right and left edges with debutant Jeremiah Nanai named on the interchange bench.

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Experience

The significance of experience can be debated incessantly; Brad Fittler’s 2018 NSW squad won Games I and II despite consisting of 11 debutants, whilst Queensland’s eight-year dynasty was built on a collection of stalwarts whose battle-hardened temperament often proved the difference. Regardless, it is worth examining and the numbers heading into Game I make for some interesting reading. Both sides are similarly aged; excluding hookers and utilities, NSW’s pack has an average age of 26.9 compared to Queensland’s 26.3. The Blues have the NRL experience on their side – 1,144 NRL appearances to 743 – whereas the Maroons are ahead in Origin appearances – 47 to 34 – due in large part to Papali’i and Kaufusi’s combined 32 reps. The Blues’ pack consists of six players with at least 100 NRL games under their belt compared to just three Queenslanders, whilst five of the Maroons have played under 70 games compared to none of the Blues. Four of the Queenslanders, however, have at least half-a-dozen Origin encounters to their name compared to just a pair of Blues. It appears as though Slater is more willing to blood younger, more inexperienced players, whilst Fittler has shown more of an inclination to rewards players who have plied their trade at club level for an extended period.

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Ball-running

As a statistical unit, the NSW pack outdoes Queensland in both their quality and quantity of ball-running. The NSW forwards average a combined 103 carries per game for 899 run metres, whilst their Queensland counterparts average just 94 carries for 816 metres. The Blues’ pack has the Maroons’ pack beat in metres per run – 8.77 to 8.72, percentage of carries exceeding eight metres – 66.2% to 63.8%, and runs per tackle break – 7.91 to 7.87. NSW should have no issue getting up the field, particularly when you factor in their insanely productive back three. In last year’s series, the Blues outran the Maroons in all three clashes and finished with a total of 5,424 run metres compared to Queensland’s 4,251. Fittler’s men were dominant in the yardage and possession battle in 2021 and have the cattle to achieve similar, but perhaps less skewed, results this time around.

Skill

A staple of NSW sides in recent years has been a forward pack willing and able to move the ball across the field promptly in order to create a variety of attacking inroads for those out wide. We can expect that to be the case again this year based off the players Fittler has included in his 17. Yeo and Murray are the two best ball-playing middles in rugby league and offer the Blues a luxury that Queensland will struggle to replicate. The Blues pack has thrown a combined 687 general play passes this season compared to the Maroons’ 272. At clubland, 39.3% of the Blues’ forwards touches have resulted in passes, which is up a considerable amount on the Maroons’ 20.7%. Five of the NSW forwards have passing rates exceeding 25%, whilst Carrigan and Papali’i are the only Queenslanders to hit that mark. Four of the five forwards in this series with a passing rate in excess of 30% are New South Welshman, with Yeo and Murray at 65.2% and 64.9% respectively. NSW have the edge in the offloading department as well, with a total of 90 on the season compared to Queensland’s 56. The Blues forwards are offloading once every 12 or so plays, whist the Maroons forwards are down at once every 18 plays. The soft hands of Yeo, Murray, Paulo and Matterson should take some pressure of NSW’s spine and allow them to play calculated and dangerous football. On the other hand, if Queensland’s forwards are able to match it or outperform their NSW counterparts in yardage, the class of Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, and Kalyn Ponga may find enough points to get them over the line.

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Defence

Getting a true grasp on the defensive habits of forwards can be tricky and largely comes down to the eye test. Numbers-wise, however, the Blues have a slight advantage over the Maroons on the defensive side of the ball. The average tackle numbers of the two packs is virtually the same when not including hookers – who do a large bulk of the middle-third defensive work – however, NSW have a slight edge in frequency of missed tackles. For all his faults, Jake Trbojevic is still one of the premiership’s elite defenders and replacing his output will be important for NSW. Yeo and Murray are both elite defenders, whilst Haas and Matterson work their tails off on that end too. The likes of Sims and Martin offer NSW a nice blend of momentum-changing bone-rattlers and desperate cover efforts on the edge. For Queensland, Cotter has churned out some seriously impressive tackling numbers this season, whilst Carrigan, Fa’asuamaleaui, and Collins are also among the premiership’s stronger middle defenders. Neither pack looks particularly dominant on the defensive end, however; the true defensive tests will be out wide.

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Stamina & Discipline

Players often describe the Origin arena as the fastest football they have experienced, so naturally team-wide endurance and discipline go a long way towards determining the final result. The Queensland pack plays on average two extra minutes per game than their NSW counterparts but get their hands on the football about 25% less on average. Slater will be urging his forwards to keep their focus and restrain themselves from making errors or giving away penalties, which a number of them having been doing at clubland. As a matter of fact, the Maroons forwards have combined for 50 penalties this season compared to the Blues’ 27 or one penalty every 112 minutes compared to NSW’s one every 201 minutes. Nanai, Fa’asuamaleaui, and Capewell have combined for 25 penalties this season on their own. There is no guarantee that this ill-discipline translates to the Origin arena which is often refereed slightly differently but it is something to keep an eye on. Every possession counts towards the final result and, if Queensland are gifting NSW possession and yardage, their already challenging matchup becomes progressively tougher. Similarly, the Maroons are more error-prone than their counterparts, having made 43 errors this season to NSW’s 31, which is even more worrisome when you consider the discrepancy in total touches – the Queensland forwards are making errors every 31 touches on average compared to NSW’s 56. Cheap turnovers and ill-discipline make life more difficult than it needs to be and, whilst they are possible to overcome, neither coaching staff will be pleased if they rear their head.

The NSW pack has considerably more NRL experience under its belt, whilst the Queensland pack has more experience on the Origin stage. The Blues forwards had their way with their Maroons counterparts last series and, if club form is anything to go off, will enter Game I again with an advantage in the ball-running department. NSW have more ball-players across their forward pack and more dangerous offloaders, which should open up their attack and create opportunities that they will need to capitalise on. Both packs’ defensive production is largely comparable, whilst the NSW forwards have proven to be more secure and disciplined than their Queensland counterparts at club level.

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Game I should be a cracking affair in Sydney and, whilst the NSW forwards come into the game with more attractive club numbers across much of the board, the Queenslanders will hardly be concerned with digits and calculations. All eyes will be on the debutants but those already with their foot in the door will have a supreme opportunity to leave a legacy of their own.

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