Soward tips paths to Origin victory: How Blues & Maroons can win “critical” Townsville battle

Former rugby league star Jamie Soward joins The Sporting Base to talk all things State of Origin 2021: first-up, the NRL champion runs the comb over how New South Wales and Queensland can each win the “critical” opening bout in Townsville.

State of Origin time — there’s nothing quite like it.

Next Wednesday evening, the game’s greatest rivalry begins inking another chapter in its rich 39-year history. The Blues and Maroons will descend on Townsville to begin the 2021 series, with both teams (of course) aiming to start 1-0 up in the battle.

Ahead of the opening bout, The Sporting Base sat down with Jamie Soward.

The former Blues star has run the ruler over each team’s chances, shaped and measured the State of Origin squads, and come up with a number of key battles and possible turning points littered across the star-studded contest that will begin in earnest on June 9.

From Turbo vs Capewell, to NSW’s bid to shake off their shock loss last year, and Queensland’s “foot up” with the back-to-back home games, here’s all the biggest moments that will define State of Origin I.

Turbo will “fancy changes” vs. QLD’s Game 1 hero

In Soward’s eyes, there’s one mouthwatering battle coming on Wednesday: the form player of the competition, Tom Trbojevic, and Queensland’s game one hero from the 2020 series, Kurt Capwell.

Soward: Now, Capewell isn’t a big name by any means, but last year New South Wales were exposed out wide in the centres, and we’ve picked two fullbacks again. So, now, I’m expecting Capewell to be shut down by Tommy Turbo, but also tested out on that right-hand side. We could also see Brian To’o there as well, so it’s an exciting new combination. Both sides will fancy their chances down that side, Queensland’s left and New South Wales’ right, in that battle. Around the two centres too, there’s some interesting stuff; add Cameron Murray in there, and the Blues actually have quite a new edge there, defensively, that will have to learn to play together. To have Valentine Holmes running at that, that’ll play a massive role.

The Townsville element

With Melbourne locked off from the rest of Australia in a snap quarantine, the NRL was forced to look elsewhere for its opening Origin bout. After some deliberating, Townsville — renowned for its fast track — snapped up the game to give Queensland back-to-back home matches.

Soward: Both teams will know how critical it is to win in Townsville in game one, and will look to break the game open early, and in a big way. The fast track will suit New South Wales, I think. In an ideal world, we’d like to see Xavier Coates in a match race with Josh Addo Car! The problem is Origin doesn’t give you the time to attack as you do in the NRL. The Blues are going to have to be smart with their ball movements, try to force that shape. The environment that North Queensland provides will help QLD, and ball runners come into play on the track. The game is so fast at the moment and Townsville encourages ball-running.

Watch them sizzle: Soward’s pacey dangermen:

• Queensland
  • Xavier Coates
  • Cameron Munster
  • Daly Cherry Evans
  • Valentine Holmes
  • Harry Grant
• New South Wales
  • Damien Cook
  • James Tedesco
  • Josh Addo-Carr
  • Jerome Luai
  • Nathan Cleary

Who wins battle of the kickers?

In Adelaide last year, the New South Wales kickers — especially Nathan Cleary — spluttered, and in the end, it lost them the “unlosable” series. Jamie Soward says that’s a thing of the past; expect the Panthers main man to run the show on Wednesday night.

Soward: The kicking game of New South Wales is going to be the most important part of the result. Think back to Game 1, we didn’t kick great, and we lost in Adelaide. Then come Game 2, we saw Nathan Cleary kick early, get repeat sets, and earn field position. If he can do the same thing he’s been doing what he’s been doing with his Penrith kicking, that can win the series. Cherry-Evans can be erratic with his kicking — when he’s on, he’s on, but sometimes there’s something missing — and Munster is carrying an injury so there’s a question mark about how much he’ll actually do. I think Cleary wins the battle of the kickers, and if he can manage that in the first two games, that’s a turning point for the whole series. If Cleary can do that, he’ll be the main man in the series, and create a platform for the Blues to score big points.

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Will NRL crackdown sour Origin?

Peter V’Landys has warned players that “Origin is not UFC” but, equally, Jamie Soward says he expects the refs to tone down their influence on the game to avoid a Magic Round repeat.

Soward: I think everyone’s a little bit scared of the refereeing at the moment. But I have no doubt and a lot of confidence that the referees will make decisions that will not affect the game, drastically, knowing that this is our showpiece. I don’t have any concerns as an analyst and as a person who loves the game that we’re going to be affected by this Origin. I think they’ll find their balances.

Blues seeking “atonement”

Perhaps the biggest media story out of the 2020 series was the “unlosable” series for the Blues, which they did lose, 2-1. While this may weigh heavily on NSW this year, Soward says there’s a way for NSW to shake off the demons of the past.

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Soward: Last year, that was people that shot from the hip without really too much knowledge about what Origin feels like. For me, Queensland and New South Wales is always an even matchup, no matter what the teams are. If the Blues weren’t hurting from losing the series last year — and they would be, a little — now they have the chance to make history and win the first two games in Queensland. I think that something like that, a 3-0 whitewash, that would be something that silences the past. That said, no one is worrying about the past. The fact NSW didn’t perform how they wanted to comes from a lot of factors, including how long the season was, Nathan Cleary’s [grand final] heartbreak. It’s a totally different ballgame this time around. Yes, NSW would love some atonement, but if they score one, two, three in the first twenty minutes, that’s all forgotten, and it becomes all about this year.

So who scores first?

Knowing everything that’s been laid out on the table ahead of State of Origin Game 1, we can now put together three of the best first try-scorer bets for The Sporting Base readers:

Brian To’o — $9 on TopSport

• The Origin debutant is playing outside Tom Trbojevic, who already has 12 try assists in just 7 appearances. If Turbo can get around Capewell — which Soward certainly tips him to — watch for the early flick pass to To’o to ice the opening try for the Blues.

Valentine Holmes — $15 on TopSport

• The Cowboys star knows where to find the try line, whether he’s at fullback for North Queensland or on the Wing for the Maroons. Playing at his home ground, he is one of Soward’s tips for top sprinters on the fast track. If QLD strike first, it’s likely through Holmes.

Nathan Cleary — $23 on TopSport

• The outside smokey, but perhaps my favourite Origin tip. Cleary’s scored 7 in 11 so far in 2021, and — like Soward said — has everything to prove on the biggest stage in rugby league. If a chance presents itself early, the Panthers star will be going for the line.

Hear more of Jamie Soward’s thoughts in his weekly “Sweet & Soward” podcast.

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