Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 9/2

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 01: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers plays the Phoenix Suns at Staples Center on January 1, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Wizards 12:10m AEST

This certainly comes with a little bit of risk as he seems to be on a very short leash with Brooks right now, getting pulled to start the second half in their game against Charlotte. Westbrook has sat 5 games this season, in those 5 games Deni averages 11.8/5.4/2.4 in 29.6 minutes. In the 11 games Deni has played with Westbrook, those come way way down to 3.8/2.5/1.1 in just 14.2 minutes. Maybe it’s a little flukey as there isn’t too much of a logical explanation and I’d expect there to be less of a contrast by season’s end, but the sample is definitely decent enough to take note. His line’s have come way down and he’s a decent per minute guy without Westbrook at 14.4/7.3/2.9 per 36 for the season, so if he can get up to 30 minutes should really be covering this. Some definite upside here too in a very very plus matchup for him. They’ve met twice this season (Westbrook played both) and he averaged 7.5/4.0/3.5 in just 25 minutes.

• Deni Advija over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Deni Advija over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Deni Advija over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

One last go for him in an absolute dream of a matchup..

• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Assists @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Raptors vs Grizzlies 12:10pm AEST

I don’t love the matchup for him today but when he’s really rolling he’s rolling as we saw earlier in the season when he averaged 20.7/8.8/1.3 over a big 6 game span. He’s had 2 great games in a row now with 17/9 against the Nets and then exploding for 29/10 against the Hawks in a season high 32 minutes. He’s still super hard to trust, especially in a matchup with JV but the upside is tantalising. Having a little bit on Baynes as well here who’s lines have come down in case Nurse needs to use him for extended minutes to handle JV.

• Chris Boucher over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Chris Boucher over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Aaron Baynes over 7.5 Rebounds @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Baynes over 9.5 Rebounds @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Wolves vs Mavs 12:10pm AEST

They’ve just got to get him into the 30s playing time on a nightly basis as he’s probably their third best player. He leads the team in 3 point percentage up at 46%, plays great defence and can guard multiple positions. It’s getting to a decent sample now and the Mavs are 4.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the court, and 3.7 PP100P better offensively. He’s averaging 7.3/5.7/1.6 on the season but thats in just 24.7 minutes. Should see 32 here where is line is 9.6/7.3/2.2. Getting a nice edge in an awesome matchup for him against the Wolves who have the 23rd ranked defence and play at the 8th fastest pace. Coming off a huge 16/8/4 game including the match winner against the Warriors so should be full of confidence.

• Maxi Kleber over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units

Warriors vs Spurs 12:40pm AEST

Anyone that’s followed me for a while knows how much of a Derrick White fan I am and things just set up beautifully for him in this one. His line’s are still low as he’s working his way back from injury but since returning his minutes have gone 21,21,25,29 so they are trending in the right direction. He should see around the 30 mark again with Lonnie still out, with some potential upside if the games close and he’s playing well. He’s had a team second 23.3% usage over the last 4 since his return, and should really thrive in this matchup against the Warriors who will be flying up and down the court. I would say Wiggins goes to Demar, and Oubre to Dejounte which could set this up nicely for Derrick who could see a lot of Curry (although he’s a very under-rated defender). White also subs out early and comes back with the second unit, and the Warriors second unit is awful defensively so he should crush in those minutes. Has multi-category upside.

• Derrick White over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Derrick White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Derrick White over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Definitely do not expect me to be betting big on him for the rest of the season as he’s just insanely inconsistent with both his minutes and his production but he should really relish this matchup against the Warriors. The Warriors don’t have much in the way of rim protection so he could get some easy ones around the rim where he takes 52% of his shots (92nd percentile amongst wings). Just an upside play here.

• Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Lakers vs OKC 2:10pm AEST

Lakers injury reporting has been awful this season with Lebron and AD popping up as either questionable or probable every game, but there is a decent chance AD sits this one coming off the double overtime game against the Pistons yesterday. Dave McMenamin (@mcten), a pretty reliable source posted a story with ESPN just before saying he is “very likely” to miss this one. If he does, it’ll mean Kuzma moves into the starting line-up and he’s scored 20 points in 2 of the 3 games AD has missed this season. Sportsbet have markets up and the odds are certainly worth having something on.

• Kyle Kuzma over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kyle Kuzma over 19.5 Points @ 26.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.7 units out

• Deni Advija over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Deni Advija over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Deni Advija over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Assists @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Chris Boucher over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Chris Boucher over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Aaron Baynes over 7.5 Rebounds @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Baynes over 9.5 Rebounds @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Maxi Kleber over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Derrick White over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Derrick White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Derrick White over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kyle Kuzma over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kyle Kuzma over 19.5 Points @ 26.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport