Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 9/1

Season Results:

• 41 Wins / 66 Losses
• 12.57 Units Profit
• +18.57% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Suns vs Pistons 11:10am AEST

It may be because he’s come in with the probable tag, but the line’s put up are much lower than what they have been for Rose. Maybe his injury limits some of his minute upside, but he doesn’t need big minutes to cover this as he has a team high 29.4% usage rate on the season which is 15th in the league, equal to Dame and just behind KD. He’s been great when he’s played this season, averaging 16.1 points & 6.1 dimes (not including the half game). Deciding to multi these up as they are both low lines, and there’s a bit of risk involved so don’t want a huge outlay here. Bit of dime upside as he’s at 13 potentials per game. It’s a tough matchup against the Suns.

• Derrick Rose over 13.5 Points / Derrick Rose over 3.5 Assists @ 2.90 with TAB SGM – 0.6 units
• Derrick Rose over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

With Josh Jackson likely to come back into the line-up here there might be a bit of a minute crunch somewhere, but I think Saddiq played well enough against the Bucks to have earned a spot in this rotation. This season is going nowhere for the Pistons so it’d make sense if they continued to roll out Bey as they spent the 19th pick on him. He didn’t play in the opener, then just played 6 minutes in his debut, but since then he’s averaged 12.2 points in 25.0 mins with a 18.7% usage rate. Such a low line he doesn’t need to do much. Could get some garbage time burn too.

• Saddiq Bey over 6.5 Points @ 1.71 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Saddiq Bey over 14.5 Points @ 10.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Thunder vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

I was so scared by Elf’s benching last game it really put me off betting his low line but Thibs has quickly put the Quickley buzz to bed, giving Elf 42 minutes against the Jazz. He crushed it with 22 points and 8 dimes and I feel pretty good about him again today. Thunder allow the second lowest percentage of possessions coming in the half-court, which sets up a treat for Payton who thrives in the open court. This line is still too low, as he’s covered this in his last 6 games, averaging 18.3 in 32 minutes. I would imagine Dort covers RJ today, which should help Payton too.

• Elfrid Payton over 13.5 Points @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Elfrid Payton over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Bit of a slow start to the season but man he’s really come on the last few games and he’s looked great. His usage is right up to 23.4 over the last 3, with an 18.3/10.7/2.3 line in just 30.8 minutes. The Knicks are giving up the most shots at the rim to forwards so that should play right into Bazley’s hands if he comes out aggressive like he has done over his last 3. Topped out at 33 minutes last game in the close one with the Pels, and I would think this stays close enough where he can get into that range again.

• Darius Bazley over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with Topsport – 1 unit

Magic vs Rockets 12:10pm AEST

I was pretty keen to target Gordon again today without Fultz, but he’s now out and with Fournier still questionable I think Bacon could see some extended run. He gets a gun matchup against the Rockets today and someone is going to need to take the shots. He gets a big 6.5% usage bump without Fultz/Gordon to 22.1% scoring 16.8 points per 36. Not too sure how the rotation will shake out, but I think the opportunity will be there for him so having a little play. Coming off a season high 18.

*I love the move of bringing Ennis into the starting line-up with Clark, both low usage guys. Bacon should get a ton of shots and now he’s playing the 2, where Houston have leaked points all season giving up the most in the league.

• Dwayne Bacon over 11.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Dwayne Bacon over 14.5 Points @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Dwayne Bacon over 19.5 Points @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 5.1 units out

• Derrick Rose over 13.5 Points / Derrick Rose over 3.5 Assists @ 2.90 with TAB SGM – 0.6 units
• Derrick Rose over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 7.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Saddiq Bey over 6.5 Points @ 1.71 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Saddiq Bey over 14.5 Points @ 10.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Elfrid Payton over 13.5 Points @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Elfrid Payton over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Darius Bazley over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Dwayne Bacon over 11.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Dwayne Bacon over 14.5 Points @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Dwayne Bacon over 19.5 Points @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

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