Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Hornets 9:10am AEST

He’s been pretty fun to watch the last few games and he has such a clear path to minutes with Miles out for a while now. 3 games back he grabbed 9 boards in just 14 minutes, 2 back he had 9 in 26 minutes before last game grabbing 12 playing a huge 38 minutes. I’m not sure he has 38 minute upside again here with PJ coming back into the mix, but I’ve just loved the way he’s been crashing the glass recently on both ends of the court so think we are getting a pretty nice price here.

• Jalen McDaniels over 6.5 Rebounds @ 2.35 with TAB – 0.8 units
• Jalen McDaniels Double Double @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.2 units

Nets vs Mavericks 9:40am AEST

Awesome setup for this game with the Nets coming into it still in the hunt for the 1 seed, but in danger of slipping back to 3rd while the Mavs are looking to get some separation from the play-in race. The game is also on national TV so I’m expecting both Luka and KD to play mid 30s with close to 40 upside if the game stays close. On top of that, it’s an island game for the Nets while Mavs come into it rested (they do play the Cavs tomorrow). Durant is as hot as anyone in the league right now going 42,42,32 his last 3 games and although DFS has been awesome defensively, I think he’s better defending smaller guys and it is KD so matchups don’t really mean too much (PJ Tucker did an awesome job on him so may find this easier). Luka had 3 straight 30 point games before scoring just 23 in the blowout W against the Heat. Looking up and down the Nets roster they really just don’t have anyone who can guard him and they seem pretty content with letting their guys play 1 on 1 defensively (assume they would’ve doubled Giannis).

• Kevin Durant over 29.5 Points / Luka Doncic over 29.5 Points @ 2.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Durant over 39.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Raptors vs Wizards 10:40am AEST

Only need to go back one game to get a look at how this offence is going to run without Lowry and man it was aces for FVV. He had 8.0 minutes of touch time, and a stupid 22 potential assists which makes this line look silly. His assist % jumps from 26.7 up to 30.9% without Lowry on the court and gets the gun matchup today against the Wizards. Role is just going to be awesome and there’s so much upside if he’s going to create that many potentials. Expecting close to 40 minutes from both him and Pascal here in an absolute must win game.

• Fred VanVleet over 6.5 Assists @ 1.74 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 9.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Lakers vs Clippers 12:10pm AEST

Lakers are in a bit of strife right now which means Caruso is going to have to play all the minutes he can handle as the only real ball handler left on the roster. THT is likely joining Lebron and Dennis on the sidelines for this one and we have a decent 137 minute sample without those 3 on the court with a pretty strong 8.9/5.5/6.3 per 36 line. He’s covered this in 2 straight playing 26,27 minutes but expecting that to get closer to the mid 30s in this one.

• Alex Caruso over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

I’m also super into KCP here. He’s going to be playing much more on ball and he’s shown over the last couple of months he can do more than just be a spot up shooter. His numbers really popped in the sample I mentioned above with a 4.8% usage bump and an awesome 19.2/4.3/1.8 per 36 line in a really decent 101 minute sample.

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

*Understand it’s risky having a couple plays based around THT missing, but I just really think he’s going to sit this one after he missed practice yesterday and think these will likely get bumped up a point or two once he’s confirmed out.

Warriors vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

I’ve mentioned so many times how correlated Draymond’s dimes and the teams success are due to his 34.6% ast percentage. This game will likely blowout, but I’m betting it’ll be off the back of Draymond finding cutters against this awful OKC defence and he should only need 3 quarters to cover this. OKC have some decent individual defenders but they have just been getting killed with any off ball movement all season as they are just so young which has led to them giving up the 5th most PITP since the ASB. Draymond tore them apart last time they met with 16 dimes.

• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 7.1 units out

• Jalen McDaniels over 6.5 Rebounds @ 2.35 with TAB – 0.8 units
• Jalen McDaniels Double Double @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Kevin Durant over 29.5 Points / Luka Doncic over 29.5 Points @ 2.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Durant over 39.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Fred VanVleet over 6.5 Assists @ 1.74 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 9.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Alex Caruso over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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