Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/1

Season Results:

• 31 Wins / 56 Losses
• 7.3 Units Profit
• +13.82% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Rockets vs Pacers 11:10am AEST

Wouldn’t want this any higher, but he should be covering this in a great matchup for him against the 25^th ranked Houston defence. He’s been awesome to start the season and he’s playing huge minutes which is always a plus. He’s coming off a season high 11 dimes in their overtime win against the Pels where he played a massive 45 minutes. He’s now averaging 9 dimes in 43 minutes over his last 2 and he’s been unlucky on the dimes, averaging 21.0 potentials over the 2 games. For reference, Luka, Harden, Jokic & Trae are averaging 18 potentials over their last 2 games, and they are averaging 10,11,11.5,12 dimes respectively. He’s absolutely crushing the advanced stats with 8.8 minutes with the ball in his hands, second only to Luka at 11.7. He’s also third among guards with 44.5 front court touches. *Note he did have 5 mins of OT to bump up the stats a touch.

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• Malcom Brogdon over 6.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Malcom Brogdon over 9.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units

Hornets vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

Been awesome the last few games, really attacking when he gets the chance and is shooting full of confidence. He’s averaging 21 points over his last 3 in 33.0 mins, but he is shooting 63.9% from the field and 57% from 3 which isn’t sustainable. Hasn’t been up against the toughest defences but gets another easy matchup here against the Hornets so he can keep things rolling. The rebounding has been a nice surprise from him this season, averaging 7.3 over his last 6. He had been around the 30-33 minute range for his previous 4 games, so it was nice to see him get rewarded for his strong play and get up to 37 against NY.

• De’Andre Hunter over 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

It’s a high line, but this matchup set’s up beautifully for him. After starting the season with 2 sub 20 min games, he’s now played 30 mins 3 in a row which is probably what we can expect moving forward. In those 3 games, he’s come up against the 9^th 17^th 18^th ranked teams in allowing rebounds to centres and has managed to average 13. He gets the number 1 team here and should be able to take full advantage with his 4^th ranked rebounding % at 21.1%.

• Clint Capela over 12.5 Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Jazz vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

Love this spot for him. This offence just generates so many 3 point attempts and Royce is a major beneficiary, knocking down 2 in his last 5 games. Gets a gun matchup today against the Knicks who have allowed the 2^nd most open 3 pointers in the league. We’ve seen Bojan get hot before, knocking down 6 triples just 2 games back, but he’s a bit streaky so I am having a little bit on him in case he gets rolling. Also had 5 3’s in a game earlier in the season.

• Royce O’Neal over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

He’s a sneaky big winner of Noel going down, as it’s forced Thibs to play him at centre more often where he has just smashed so far this season with 14.1 boards and 8.1 dimes per 36. They just don’t have any other reliable bigs and if Robinson gets in any foul trouble, the 18 or so centre minutes could get bumped up even more and we could see him get into the 40’s again. He crushed it as expected against Atlanta with 17 boards and 9 dimes. The dimes are here to stay, but there’s some big rebounding upside with him playing more at centre.

• Julius Randle over 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Julius Randle over 15.5 Rebounds @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Bulls vs Kings 2:10pm AEST

Was tough seeing him get 4,3 dimes in the 3rd and 4th games of the season after we launched at him at big odds in the first two, but I’m interested in him again here. He’s covered this in 5 of his last 6 games averaging 13.3/2.8 and although he is hasn’t been good, he looks a lot more comfortable and aggressive. Gets a really nice matchup today against the Kings who have given up the 4th most points to centres this season. Such a low line and he’s been in a bit of foul trouble the last few games, so there could be some minute upside for him if he can stay on the court. We were a game early on the Lavine dimes as well, and he was in full play-maker mode last night with a whopping 21 potentials (finished with 9 dimes). This game sets up better for him from a scoring perspective but in-case he’s in pass first mode going to have a little bit on some of the higher lines.

• Wendell Carter Jr over 12.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Zach Lavine over 9.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 7.1 units out

• Malcom Brogdon over 6.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Malcom Brogdon over 9.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• De’Andre Hunter over 18.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Clint Capela over 12.5 Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Royce O’Neal over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Randle over 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Randle over 15.5 Rebounds @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Wendell Carter Jr over 12.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Zach Lavine over 9.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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