Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 6/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Magic vs Bulls 11:10pm AEST

“Since Fultz went down, we have a 13 game sample and in that time we have managed to cash in on AG’s assists so obviously we are all aware of his role. As a reminder, in that span AG was second on the team in touch time at 5.6 minutes per game so that all has to go somewhere. Vooch isn’t a candidate as he’s a far better catch and shoot guy so it will likele be Jordan Bone coming back into the rotation but he really isn’t any good and he’s not very ball dominant (was playing a ton off ball with AG running point) so I’d imagine AGs touch time gets split up between Cole and Fournier. Not too likely, but we may see Fournier used as the backup point. I can’t work out the prices here as Cole has had 6 dimes in 3 straight including the last matchup against the Raps where he had 12 potentials. He leads the team in touch time since Fultz injury at 6.4 minutes and it wouldn’t surprise to see that be somewhere closer to 8 here. Fournier has been third on the team in touch time at 3.0 minutes per game since returning from injury, which will certainly get a bump maybe closer to 5.0. He’s averaging 5.2 assists over his last 6 games with 10.2 potentials in that span. I would go straight to the alts with both of these, but blowout is a bit of a risk. With no Gordon or Fultz this season, Cole is averaging 5.6 dimes per 36 and Fournier is averaging a massive 7.5 in a fairly large 110 minute sample. I’ll probably have a little bit on Raptors 15+ or something around there to try cover a bit of the blowout risk as well, but those lines aren’t up yet.”

Ended up dodging a bullet last time out when they played against the Raptors but it’s hard not to come back to them here in the dream matchup against the Bulls. Raptors caused rookie Cole Anthony all sorts of problems and he looked awful (he is not good) but the role was well and truly there for him with a huge bump in touch time up to 7.8 minutes in just 30.6 minutes (sat the final 2:37 in the blowout. Raptors really did a good job limiting Vooch who is usually a great source of dimes for his team-mates as a very high volume catch and shoot guy. Things should be much easier for the Magic today with weaker close-outs, more easy buckets around the rim and a far better matchup for Vooch, who’s been awesome playing some big minutes of late.

• Cole Anthony over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Cole Anthony over 9.5 Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Evan Fournier over 5.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Evan Fournier over 7.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Finally someone has some lines up for him! Been awfully painful the last few games watching him ball out and not being able to bet. He has been so so good of late for the Bulls doing a bit of everything on both ends. Has stepped up in a huge way for them with WCJ out and his role in the rotation is extremely safe right now. Over the last 4 games he has a team second +19.8 On/Off net rating differential and has been producing at a very high level averaging 14.0/8.0/7.5 in that span covering this line in all of them. For those who have been around since the start of the season, you’ll remember I was pretty aggressively attacking WCJ’s assist lines as Donovan loves to get the ball in the hands of his big man and initiate the offence from there. Thad is a perfect fit for him as he is a very smart passer and is enough of a scoring threat that he creates a ton of problems for the oppositions defence. Has upside in all 3 categories so it’s a shame we aren’t getting his line’s on TAB for a PRA bet, but we are getting some huge odds here so am happy to have a good crack at them. Has had 8+ rebounds in 3 of his last 4, including an 11 rebound game and has 8+ assists in 3 of his last 4, including an 11 assist game.

• Thaddeus Young over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Thaddeus Young over 5.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Assists @ 20.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Assists @ 67.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Rebounds @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Rebounds @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

**** For those who missed the odds yesterday, his alternate PRA lines on TAB are a decent option as well as Triple Double @ 61.00 with Sportsbet & Double Double @ 7.50 with B365.

Raptors vs Nets 11:40pm AEST

Sooo much upside here. His lines have come dramatically down after Baynes has been playing the majority of C minutes but I’m chalking that up to being matchup based as they’ve been up against the big front-courts (Giannis, Lopez / Holmes, Bagley / Vooch x 2). It’s hard to trust Boucher from a betting perspective as it seems his coach doesn’t even trust him at the moment but he could not find himself in a better matchup than today against the Nets who have opted to play small with Green at the 5. We are all well aware of Brooklyn’s defensive struggles so I really think this could be a game for Boucher to get back on track. He’s been a little cold and his production has dropped with his minutes so his lines have come right down (when he was hot we were betting his PR lines at 24.5, his PRA is now 17.5). During that hot stretch he cleared 30 5 out of 6 games with 29 in the other.

• Chris Boucher over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Chris Boucher over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

It’s a small sample but over the last 3 games Lowry has been taking more control of the offence which has freed up Freddy to play off ball. Lowry’s touch time has been 5.5 mins per in that span with Freddy at 5.0 which is almost a reversal of the Lowry 5.0 and Freddy 5.6 for the season. Lowry has been taking it upon himself to get his team-mates going with a real pass first mentality, especially over the last 2 against the Magic where he created 18.5 potentials per games and had 10+ dimes in both (15 in one). Going against the Nets defence he should be able to get to his spots and get some easy looks for his guys.

• Kyle Lowry over 6.5 Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kyle Lowry over 9.5 Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 41.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Hard to take any of the Nets guys, but have to think someone is going to need to pop for the Raptors if they are going to hang with the Nets. Taking a couple stabs. TAB & Sportsbet are both offering similar prices for most of these, but I’d probably just leave them if they get much lower.

• Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 34.5 Points @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Pascal Siakam over 34.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Norman Powell over 29.5 Points @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Cavs vs Bucks 11:40pm AEST

Bobby has been playing so well that Bud has started limiting his minutes in blowouts which isn’t ideal, however he also plays his studs way less minutes against lesser opposition so Bobby could come in and get his damage done early. He’s so hot right now and gets an awesome matchup against the Cavs. It may not seem the greatest matchup but the Cavs allow the most put-backs to bigs in the league so there could be some easy stats for him. He’s had 30+ PRA in 2 straight games averaging just 19.5 minutes which is ludicrous but I think he can push into the low-mid 20s today. Still a little hard to trust to take the base-line but some serious value in the alts again.

• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bobby Portis over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Forbes played the entire 4th quarter against the Pacers in the blowout finishing the game with a season high 20 points on a season high 15 shots. They’ve really tried to get him going as he could be a very useful piece for the Bucks and I don’t see this game heading in any direction other than a blowout so he could be in line for some extended 4th quarter action once again.

• Bryn Forbes over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Bryn Forbes over 19.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

OKC vs Wolves 12:10pm AEST

Kenny Hustle time! I’ve always had a pretty decent opinion of him as he just plays so hard and does a lot of little things that don’t show up on the stat sheet. He had a great stretch with the Pels last season but hasn’t really being able to get going so far with OKC. They are just so depleted here down to 8 men, with the majority of them being front-court guys so I feel pretty good about him pushing right into the mid 30s here. A little surprising, but he was actually playing the backup point behind Maledon last game which resulted in 2.2 minutes of touch time which is a ton considering he only played 23.1 minutes. Maledon was an on ball monster last game with a huge 6.3 minutes of touch time so that all has to go somewhere. Diallo is an obvious candidate but his lines are really high – might be some value on his assist lines – so coming to Kenny. In the 23 mins last game he finished with just 2 dimes but had a really nice 8 potentials which is 12.5 per 36. He averages 7.6 boards and 3.3 dimes per 36 for the season which isn’t a huge edge but that is with all the other guys playing. Plenty of upside with his assists here.

• Kenrich Williams over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units *** 2.05 on sportsbet
• Kenrich Williams over 5.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kenrich Williams over 7.5 Assists @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 7.8 units out

• Cole Anthony over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Cole Anthony over 9.5 Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Evan Fournier over 5.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Evan Fournier over 7.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Thaddeus Young over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Thaddeus Young over 5.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Assists @ 20.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Assists @ 67.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Thaddeus Young over 7.5 Rebounds @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeus Young over 9.5 Rebounds @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Chris Boucher over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Chris Boucher over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kyle Lowry over 6.5 Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kyle Lowry over 9.5 Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 41.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 34.5 Points @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Pascal Siakam over 34.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Norman Powell over 29.5 Points @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bobby Portis over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Bryn Forbes over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Bryn Forbes over 19.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kenrich Williams over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units ***2.05 on Sportsbet
• Kenrich Williams over 5.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kenrich Williams over 7.5 Assists @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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