Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 5/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Raptors vs Celtics 11:10am AEST

Haven’t had much luck with a few of the bigger bets recently but fuck me this is too good to not launch at. He was a massive letdown yesterday but gets a chance to bounce back here. Didn’t get a chance to write him up as the lines came online late after he was announced starting but the numbers are staggering and we are getting a huge dip on his line here. We’ve got a 74 minute sample this season for him without FVV, OG & Siakam which is more than enough and in that time he’s got a 21.2/4.8/3.9 per 36 line on 23.3% usage. 17 minutes with that production covers this base line. If you want a bigger sample, his per 36 numbers in his rookie season were 16.2/7.1/3.4 and is at 16.8/4.8/2.5 this season. He only played 21 minutes yesterday, but he started the game extremely poorly with some sloppy turnovers and couldn’t make a shot so had a short leash. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where he gets any fewer than 21 minutes but has every chance to play 30+. If the Pistons can spank them without their best player then have to think the Celtics make light work of them today and he’ll be playing garbage time if it pans out that way. He had a team 3rd 29.4% usage yesterday finishing with a 6/3/2 line which almost gets him to the base line but he’s a career 44% from the field and 38% from 3 guy so he’ll be better than his 2-11 and 0-5 from deep yesterday. Skewing a bit more on the alts here as these odds are insane with the upside he has with so many minutes up for grabs.

Wrote this up before it was announced he was coming off the bench, but there are still plenty of minutes up for grabs if he’s playing well and he will get his chances just doesn’t make the play as strong so cutting down the exposure. Still skewing to alts.

• Terrence Davis over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.8 units
• Terrence Davis over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Terrence Davis over 19.5 Points @ 10.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

On the other side of the ball here, Kemba look well and truly back with 3 awesome games in a row averaging 26/6.6. Was seemingly not effected by Brown coming back in maintaining a team high 28.2% usage and 6.9 minutes of touch time (averages 5.9 for the season). He had a tough matchup there with Beverley hounding him and still managed to put up a really strong 25/6 line. Can’t really read too much into the season stats on the Raptors with so many guys out here but the pistons had no trouble at all scoring on them yesterday with 129 and the Celtcs get them on a b2b here. He usually starts the 4th quarter so if it’s blowing out should get some early 4th quarter minutes and with the all star break might not be any need to pull him too early. Has covered this in 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

• Kemba Walker over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units

Just a little sprinkle here as it’s hard to assume this game stays close after yesterdays disaster, but Lowry was unbelievably unlucky yesterday with just 6 dimes from his 17 potentials. Played 35 minutes and missed the last 4 due to the blowout but we’re getting decent value here as if the Raptors are hitting shots today Lowry will be racking up dimes and maybe could play closer to 40 with a big break coming up.

• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Can be a little tricky to catch but it’s pretty clear how talented this guy is and he really can do it all. He is an absolute per minute stud with an awesome 15.5/13.2/2.4/2.1/3.2 per 36 line. Stevens keeps talking him up saying he wants to get him some more minutes and the signs are promising playing 21+ in 2 of his last 3 games in which he’s hit 25 PRA in both of them. Hard to trust and I don’t have a strong view on this game script but he should crush against Boucher in the second unit and is definitely worth having something on at this price. They may let him run in garbage time.

• Robert Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pistons vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

Wild game yesterday where the Pistons shot 52.7% from the field and 48.8% from 3 against the discombobulated Raptors defence so the stats on all the Pistons yesterday are obviously all quite inflated and they come up against the really strong Knicks defence here but the role for Plumlee is so so good. It was DSJ who got lucky for his triple double, with his 11 dimes coming from just 14 potentials whereas Plumlee only had 10 from his 17. The stats were right up across the board so him having a similar performance wouldn’t at all surprise. He made 71 passes (averages 44.9), had 3.6 minutes of touch time (averages 2.0), had 92 touches (up from 56.3), had 10 elbow touches (averages 3.2), had 16 paint touches (averages 7.7).

• Mason Plumlee over 4.5 Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Mason Plumlee over 5.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Mason Plumlee over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Mason Plumlee over 9.5 Assists @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 4.6 units out

• Terrence Davis over 12.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.8 units
• Terrence Davis over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Terrence Davis over 19.5 Points @ 10.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Kemba Walker over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Robert Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Mason Plumlee over 4.5 Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Mason Plumlee over 5.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Mason Plumlee over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Mason Plumlee over 9.5 Assists @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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