Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 5/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Mavs 11:40pm AEST

Everything here is pointing toward extended minutes for Dray in this one. His workload has been very much managed this season averaging just 27.2 minutes including just 6 games of 30+ minutes. He played a season high 36 minutes 2 games ago and should be getting at least that today on national TV with Paschall potentially missing this one too. His per 36 numbers are great up at 8.8 dimes and although he didn’t rack them up yesterday he still covered this base against the leagues 3rd best defence over the last 2 weeks and had 16 potentials. That is right around his season average of 15.6 potentials per 36 minutes which should be more than enough to cover this line in a good matchup against the leagues second worst defence over the last 2 weeks (23rd on season). Definitely some upside here when you’ve got someone like Steph on the team. His touch time came way up as well to 4.1 last game which is well above his season average of 2.7.

• Draymond Green over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Draymond Green Double-Double @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green Triple-Double @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Oubre has been bad this season, which has resulted in him just 27.6 minutes but I have to think with Warriors so short-handed that comes way up into the 30s today. Per cleaning the glass, he’s played 17% of his minutes at the 4 this season and has a 56.6 eFG% which is dramatically up from the 38.4 eFG% playing the 3 (27% of mins), and 38.9 eFG% at the 2 (56% of mins). Last season with the Suns it wasn’t as dramatic but a similar story as he was 73rd percentile in his minutes at the 4 and 34th percentile in his minutes at the 3. Going back even further, he’s been substantially more efficient playing at the 4 the last 4 seasons. With Draymond sliding down to play almost exclusively at the 5 now, it should open up a ton more 4 minutes for Kelly so it could really get him going. Love the move to the second unit and he seems to be enjoying it too with two 18+ Point games in his last 4. With no traditional centre on the court this season he’s posting a 19.3/7.2/2.3 per 36 line in a 110 minutes sample. Paschall has been ruled out which just opens up even more 4 minutes (although he had been playing majority of his time as small ball C).

• Kelly Oubre over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Kelly Oubre over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kelly Oubre over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Hawks vs Jazz 11:40pm AEST

Tough matchup here and I expect the Jazz will absolutely smash this Hawks team without Trae, as he has a team second +15.2 On/Off net rating differential this season but the usage bump Reddish has received without Trae, Hunter & Bogdan is too big to ignore. It’s a 12.8% bump up to 32.7% in a decent enough 65 minute sample. Hawks have been torched in that time with a -15.2 net rating but he’s been super productive with a 28/9.3/1.6 per 36 line. Should see a big minute bump here with the Hawks so short-handed. He’s been inconsistent but he’s had 4 20 point games this season and is more than capable, so think we’re getting a pretty good price here.

• Cam Reddish over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Cam Reddish over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Cam Reddish over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Cam Reddish over 24.5 Points @ 20.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Lakers vs Nuggets 2:10pm AEST

Without Harris it opens up a bunch of minutes and I really think it’ll be MPJ who benefits from it. Malone has shown over the last couple of games he’s liked to run the 2 point guard line-ups but he might not be able to get away with that today against the big Lakers team. He’s a defensive minded coach which is why we don’t see more out of MPJ, but they might be playing from behind here and need his offence. He’s very hard to trust and it isn’t a great matchup but happy to have a little stab on his upside here incase things pan out for him. Barton’s playing time has been a little inconsistent this season but played a season high 37 minutes with Harris getting injured last game so he should be in for some extended run here also. Don’t love the matchup for him and we’ll probably target him against the Kings on Sunday, but having a little stab at his upside here as the mins should be there.

• Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Will Barton over 19.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.2 units out

• Draymond Green over 6.5 Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Draymond Green Double-Double @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green Triple-Double @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kelly Oubre over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Kelly Oubre over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kelly Oubre over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Cam Reddish over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Cam Reddish over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.90 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Cam Reddish over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Cam Reddish over 24.5 Points @ 20.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Will Barton over 19.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport