Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 5/1

Season Results:

• 31 Wins / 56 Losses
• 7.3 Units Profit
• +13.82% ROI

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76ers vs Hornets 11:10am AEST

Turned in his best game of the season with his first of what am sure will be several triple double’s thoughout the season. Finished with a 15/12/11/1/1 line with an all round gem. That’s now 3 strong games in a row averaging 11.7 boards and 8.6 dimes in that span. He looks to be locked in for mid 30 minutes a night and has a strong 15.2/11.1/8.1 per 36 line this season. It really is a great matchup for him, as the Hornets have been pushing the pace ranked 8th on the season but that is only going higher the more playing time LaMelo gets. Has covered this 5 of 6 games (only miss was a blowout loss to Cavs). I would be taking 8+ rebounds if you can’t get this RA line, as it is higher elsewhere. Showed he can cover this in limited playing time when he had 18 against Magic in just 24 minutes.

• Ben Simmons over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units

Cavs vs Magic 11:10am AEST

It’s been a great start to the season for him and he can certainly keep it going here. Those that were around last season would’ve remembered Nance dimes were a target of mine, but it’s been tricky this season with Drummond around. That hasn’t bothered him and he’s been putting up great assist numbers averaging 5.2 on the season. That number may be a little unsustainable as he’s just generating 6.5 potentials per game, but the key factor today is Garland missing. When Garland is on the court, he’s at 3.7 assists per 36 with a 12.7% assist rate (157 mins) but with Garland off, he gets a massive spike up to 10.7 dimes per 36 with a 41.7% assist rate (50 mins).

• Larry Nance over 3.5 Assists @ 1.69 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Larry Nance over 5.5 Assists @ 3.4 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Larry Nance over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Knicks vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

Got off to a slow start averaging 3.5/2.5/2 in just 20 mins over his first 2 but has really come on strongly averaging 18.5/5.5/5.8 in 30.4 mins over the last 4. Usage has really spiked and has a team high 26.2% in that span. There isn’t a whole lot of upside with the rebound and assist numbers (they should both be there) so just taking the low points line here which he’s covered in all 4 of the games. He’s coming off a pretty ridiculous 25 drives last game to go with a huge 6.9 minutes in possession. I would think Reddish takes Barrett, which should leave Trae on Payton. Great spot for him.

• Elfrid Payton over 12.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Elfrid Payton over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 4.6 units out

• Ben Simmons over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Larry Nance over 3.5 Assists @ 1.69 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Larry Nance over 5.5 Assists @ 3.4 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Larry Nance over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Elfrid Payton over 12.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Elfrid Payton over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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